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AST SpaceMobile Plummets on Galactic Q1 Miss: Can Vertical Integration Save the SpaceX Rival?

Author: Jessica Mitacek. Posted: 5/12/2026.

When an aerospace upstart’s next-generation BlueBird satellites are the largest commercial communication arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit (LEO), expectations for that company can be astronomical.

So when space-based cellular broadband network provider AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) reported Q1 2026 results on Monday, May 11, investors were understandably deflated by a bearish double miss.

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In the lead-up to the earnings call, which was held after the bell, ASTS gained nearly 6%. But after the company announced steep misses on both earnings and revenue, the stock sold off in after-hours trading, with the market’s palpable disappointment sending shares down more than 13%.

Here’s what investors need to know about the SpaceX rival going forward.

AST SpaceMobile’s Q1 Disappointment Brings Investors Back Down to Earth

Despite the company’s promising backdrop, the space-based cellular provider posted Q1 earnings per share (EPS) of negative 66 cents, versus analyst expectations of negative 23 cents.

The EPS miss was AST SpaceMobile’s fifth in as many quarters.

Quarterly revenue also disappointed, with $14.74 million missing the consensus estimate of $39.01 million by a wide margin. The shortfall looked even worse when compared with the company’s Q4 2025 revenue of $54.31 million against expectations of $39.53 million.

Fortunately, the Q1 report wasn’t without its bright spots. AST SpaceMobile reported a healthy balance sheet with approximately $3.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of March 31.

The company is still in the early stages of revenue generation, but it should be able to continue scaling thanks to more than half a million square feet of manufacturing and operations space around the globe. BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to be delivered within a month, and AST SpaceMobile is already in the process of assembly through BlueBird 33. Ultimately, the firm plans to have 100 BlueBird satellites in its fleet.

In his earnings call comments, CEO Abel Avellan highlighted the company’s 95% vertically integrated manufacturing strategy, noting that it provides a long-term advantage as the manufacturing team has ramped up significantly over the past several quarters.

AST SpaceMobile’s Volatility Should Be Expected

AST SpaceMobile has dealt with its fair share of setbacks this year. Launch delays and Blue Origin deployment mishaps have fueled heightened volatility in the share price. As a result, ASTS now carries a beta of 2.60, meaning it is more than two and a half times as volatile as the broad market.

But with high betas come high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Shortly after the BlueBird 7 LEO failure in late April, the stock bounced back within a week on news that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission granted AST SpaceMobile commercial authority to deliver direct-to-device, or D2D, cellular broadband connectivity from outer space nationwide in the United States.

That catalyst followed another in late February that sent shares of ASTS higher. In late February, the Midland, Texas-based firm—which has secured strategic partnerships with Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T), Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD), real estate investment trust American Tower (NYSE: AMT), Google, and a handful of other tech and communication services companies—announced its first-ever premier government contract.

According to a company press release, AST SpaceMobile entered into an agreement with the United States Space Development Agency for the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program as part of “the Hybrid Acquisition for proliferated Low-Earth Orbit (HALO) program,” which carries a total contract value of approximately $30 million.

So selloffs are nothing new to shareholders, many of whom have endured the highs and lows of buying and holding ASTS. Over the past year, while posting a gain of nearly 204%, the stock has seen trough-to-peak gains as high as 315% while enduring at least 15 double-digit pullbacks.

After a Big Earnings Miss, ASTS Receives a Mixed Outlook

The silver lining is that the company’s revenue is expected to continue growing, which should bring earnings nearly to break-even over the next year. Based on a trailing 12-month EPS of negative $1.32, AST SpaceMobile’s earnings are expected to improve from negative 99 cents to negative one cent over the next four quarters.

Nonetheless, analysts are now understandably conservative in their expectations. The stock’s average 12-month price target is $82.51, indicating a potential upside of over 15%. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile has a consensus Reduce rating based on the 10 analysts who currently cover it.

Short interest of nearly 18%—or nearly 54 million shares of the 382 million shares outstanding—remains a short-term concern. However, long term, the smart money appears to remain bullish on ASTS. Over the past 12 months, institutional buyers have injected nearly $3 billion into the stock, while outflows have totaled less than $500 million.

A New Focus for GoPro: Is a Takeover in the Frame?

Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Posted: 5/14/2026.

GoPro, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: GPRO) Q1 2026 earnings initially painted a bleak picture.

The company reported a 26% year-over-year (YOY) revenue decline to $99 million, missing analyst estimates by a wide margin, while GAAP gross margin fell to just 4.3%.

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Beneath those alarming figures, however, a different story is emerging. One that points to a strategic pivot, masked operational improvements, and a formal process that puts the entire company in play as a potential acquisition target.

GoPro's board recently authorized a full strategic review in response to unsolicited inbound interest, fundamentally shifting the investment thesis from a turnaround story to a possible M&A arbitrage opportunity. For investors, the question is no longer solely whether GoPro can reclaim its former glory, but what its intellectual property, brand recognition, and scaled manufacturing relationships may be worth to a potential acquirer.

Adjusting the Financial Lens on GoPro's Profitability

The market's reaction to GoPro's first-quarter performance was predictably negative, centering on the sharp drop in gross margin from 32.3% in the prior-year period to just 4.5% on a non-GAAP basis.

But these figures require important context. GoPro's Q1 results were heavily affected by discrete, one-time charges, including a $24.5 million charge for component purchase commitments and a $4.5 million write-down of slow-moving inventory.

Excluding those items reveals a normalized adjusted gross margin of approximately 31%. While still a contraction, that figure suggests a far more resilient underlying business than the headline numbers imply. GoPro management attributed the pressure to macro headwinds affecting the broader consumer electronics market, citing rising memory costs and supply chain volatility.

Performance in the direct-to-consumer channel reinforces this view of underlying stability. Revenue from GoPro's website accounted for 39% of total sales, up from 30% in Q1 2025. That shift provides a positive tailwind for long-term margin health, as it allows GoPro to capture more profit per unit and build direct relationships with its customer base. At the same time, the street average selling price for its products improved by 6% YOY to $371, indicating some degree of pricing power and a successful move toward higher-value products.

GoPro's Board Opens the Door for a Takeover

The most significant catalyst for GoPro is the board's decision to engage a financial advisor and explore a sale. The move came in response to multiple unsolicited acquisition inquiries following GoPro's April announcement of a formal push into the defense and aerospace sectors.

A critical hurdle for any potential deal has already been cleared. Founder and CEO Nicholas Woodman, who controls approximately 63% of the voting power through his Class B shares, gave the process his unequivocal support during the Q1 earnings call. By stating that the effort has his "full and complete support," Woodman effectively removed the primary governance risk that could have deterred potential suitors.

This public endorsement signals that the board and its most influential shareholder are aligned on maximizing value, even if it means relinquishing control. The market is now free to price in a buyout premium without the overhang of a founder unwilling to sell.

Reboot: GoPro's IP Finds a New Mission

The interest from potential acquirers appears tied to GoPro's strategic repositioning of its imaging technology. The brand, long synonymous with consumer action cameras, is now leveraging its IP in potentially more lucrative markets.

Mission 1: GoPro's High-Margin Play for the Professional Market

The recent launch of the MISSION 1 Series of compact cinema cameras marks a deliberate entry into the professional and prosumer markets. These cameras offer 8K and 4K capabilities with industry-leading thermal performance, directly competing with far more expensive equipment. This pivot allows GoPro to target a customer base less susceptible to consumer discretionary spending pressures and opens up higher-margin revenue streams.

From Skateparks to Spacecraft: GoPro's Defense Ambitions

GoPro has engaged Oliver Wyman, a leading consulting firm, to map out a strategy for the defense and aerospace markets. This initiative was validated when NASA used modified GoPro cameras on its Artemis II mission, proving the hardware's durability and performance in extreme environments. This foray into government and enterprise contracts could create a scalable, recurring revenue business that is largely detached from the consumer hardware cycle. A larger technology or defense firm could see significant value in acquiring this mission-proven technology.

Traders Are Betting on a GoPro Buyout

Investor positioning reflects the speculative nature of the current situation. Call option volume recently spiked by 53%, with implied volatility surging as traders bet on a near-term acquisition announcement. GoPro's trading volume of 13.82 million shares dwarfs its average of 5.89 million, indicating heavy rotation.

Short interest remains elevated at 14.21% of the float. While that signals significant bearish sentiment on GoPro's standalone prospects, it also creates the potential for a short squeeze should positive M&A news emerge.

Institutional ownership is a solid 70.09%, with net inflows over the last 12 months suggesting that larger funds may be holding their positions in anticipation of a strategic event.

With a market capitalization hovering below $200 million, a larger player like Garmin Ltd. (NYSE: GRMN) or a tech giant seeking to enter the hardware space could acquire GoPro's global brand recognition, patent portfolio, and established manufacturing relationships for a relatively small outlay.

Investors focused on event-driven scenarios may want to watch for further developments in GoPro's strategic review. Cautious investors, on the other hand, may prefer to wait for concrete evidence of a transaction or a meaningful improvement in profitability before committing capital.