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In this week’s edition of the Action Update, we’ll breakdown what’s happening in Beijing, why it matters for the war Iran, and the rest of the world. Also, there’s cake. Let’s dig in.

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**From China with Love**

News from the meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart is cause for the most cautious of optimism. Key takeaways being reported in the media are as follows: First, China has agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Second, China has also agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must be open to traffic and the Iranian protectionist-racket/toll is unacceptable. 

Basically, China is saying some pretty nice words, but actions…? Well, they’ve not committed to anything, really. Yes, they’ve talked about all of the above - which is progress. And Beijing has said they would seek to increase their purchases of American oil in order to decrease their reliance on the Middle East, but there are no real commitments here – no benchmarks, timelines or anything of the like. 

While some of the foreign policy elite has concluded that President Trump has gone, hat in hand, to China seeking help with Iran, the truth is that President Trump’s pressure on the Islamic Republic, as well as the three carrier groups in the region (not to mention the audacity to use them), present the U.S. with a very strong position in these negotiations. And, thus far, we’re seeing that play out.

But if in the West we believe all’s fair in love and war, we should recall that in some eastern capitals everything - from trade routes to missile silos - is a war. And in case there’s any doubt, just as President Trump was getting to Beijing, we learned from American officials that Chinese firms were plotting to launder their weapons sales to Iran through third countries.  We hear their words, but we must never lose focus on actions.

**What About the Iranians?**

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For its part, the Iranian government – such as it exists –likely sees the writing on the wall and is acting accordingly. The challenge with getting the Islamic Republic to adopt the American (and now Chinese) positions – most specifically on the nuclear issue -  is that they know that every inch conceded to the U.S. in negotiations costs them a mile of credible fear amongst their people.

The regime, specifically the so-called hardliners in the IRGC, understand that they’re forever-war is, has been, and will always be with their own people – that war never ends unless the regime dies.

So, they’re acting as if they have the upper hand in negotiations - as if time is on their side. It isn’t. American direct pressure, alongside Israel’s position in Lebanon, and now the China developments, is working. Now is the moment to show Iran, Russia, China and the rest of the world that the U.S. does not shy away from victory.

Put another way, for those who believe the great geo-political question of our day is how to address an ever-rising China or an ever-infantile Vladimir Putin, President Trump’s decision to engage decisively with Iran has placed the U.S. in a geo-political position of strength not seen since April of 2017 (when, as readers may recall, President Trump casually informed his Chinese counterpart that the U.S. had just launched 59 cruise missiles at Syria in retaliation for their use of chemical weapons).

**What We’re Watching**

Over the next few days, we’ll be watching to see if Beijing decides to deliver something tangible rather than just talk. In addition, we’ll be watching to see what happens in Lebanon. As we’re writing this, Israeli and Lebanese negotiators are meeting in Washington.

We’ve, of course, no more information than anyone else reading the day’s news, but we see very serious people in the room on the American and Israeli sides. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Ambassador Mike Huckabee, and Ambassador Yechiel Leiter will all be in the room. Of note, also leading the Israeli delegation is former Israeli Ambassador and the closest of PM Netanyahu’s confidant’s, Ron Dermer. 

We at CUFI know these people. We know the Secretary of State to be among the most capable peacemakers in power today. We know Ambassadors Huckabee and Leiter, and they are not just great men, they are good men. And we know Ron Dermer, once referred to in the press as “Bibi’s brain,” is among the finest strategic minds of our generation.

The Americans and the Israelis have sent their best. If this fails it is because Beirut has chose the path of cowardice; a path that leaves this war to generations not yet born.

For our part we will pray for the peace of Jerusalem, and stand as watchmen on her walls on July 5-7th at the CUFI Washington Summit. We hope to see you there.

Sincerely,

The CUFI Action Fund

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