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Freeport Tanks Again on Mine Delay—Long Term Outlook Stays Strong

Reported by Leo Miller. First Published: 4/30/2026.

For copper mining giantFreeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), 2025 was a very strong year. The stock delivered a total return of more than 35%, marking its best annual performance since 2021. That came despite disaster striking the company’s vital Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. A mudslide caused several workers to lose their lives, and the mine is expected to face operational hurdles in the near future.

In September 2025, Freeport significantly cut its guidance following the mudslide. Shares fell more than 20% in two days to around $35. The stock then staged a strong recovery, briefly rising above $70 in April 2025.

However, Freeport’s latest earnings report revealed that the re-commencement of operations at Grasberg is facing setbacks. As a result, shares are now down more than 15% from their highs. Looking ahead, rising long-term demand for copper continues to support Freeport’s outlook, but investors should not overlook its operational issues.

Freeport Beats as Production Exceeds Expectations, Prices Rise

In its latest quarter, Freeport posted revenue of $6.23 billion, an increase of nearly 9% year over year (YOY). That figure easily topped estimates of $5.73 billion. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings per share rose 138% YOY to 57 cents, beating estimates by 10 cents.

The company’s results were helped by its ability to sell greater quantities of metal in Q1 than previously expected. The firm sold 657 million pounds of copper, 121,000 ounces of gold, and 24 million pounds of molybdenum. This compares with guidance of 640 million pounds of copper, 60,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. Notably, average realized prices also rose considerably versus Q4 2025.

Realized Metals Prices and Change Versus Q4 2025

• Copper = $5.78 per pound, an 8% increase.

• Gold = $4,889 per ounce, a 20% increase.

• Molybdenum = $25.21 per pound, an 11% increase.

Despite these positives, investors focused on delays and reduced forecasts at Grasberg, leading to the sharp decline in shares.

Freeport Cuts Grasberg Forecasts as Wet Material Accumulates

Previously, Freeport expected its Indonesian operations to reach 85% of total production capacity by the second half of 2026. Now, the firm has cut that forecast to 65%.

From 2026 to 2030, Freeport expects Grasberg to produce 6.9 billion pounds of copper in total. That is down 9% from prior estimates. It also forecasts gold production of 5.6 million ounces, down 7% from earlier estimates.

Management noted that ore material in parts of the Grasberg mine became wetter than expected. Grasberg sits within a rainforest, making it one of the wettest regions on Earth.

When operations are running normally, Freeport has the technology to manage these conditions. However, with operations halted, moisture accumulated, making ore more difficult to load into railcars. As a result, the company needs to install specialized equipment to operate efficiently under these conditions. That installation is what is delaying the timeline.

Supply and Demand Outlook for Copper Supports Freeport Long-Term

Notably, it is not all bad news regarding Grasberg. Ultimately, the company says the lost production through 2030 can be recovered over a longer period. Furthermore, Freeport expects its modifications to cost only around $60 million to $70 million. That is small relative to the firm’s planned capital expenditures (CapEx) of $8.8 billion in 2026 and 2027 combined. Lost time, rather than higher costs, is the primary downside from the Grasberg delay.

With copper demand expected to continue rising, Freeport should be able to make up for the lost production in the long term. S&P Global estimates that copper demand will rise by 50% between now and 2040.

This is due to a variety of factors, with general economic growth and the transition to electric energy as the largest contributors. Economic growth leads to more buildings and greater demand for appliances, both of which require copper for power. Meanwhile, electric vehicles require around 2.9 times more copper than gas-powered vehicles.

Additionally, bringing new copper supply online is difficult. S&P Global estimates that developing new mining projects takes an average of 17 years. These dynamics—higher demand and limited ability to bring on new supply—support higher copper prices over the long term, and thus Freeport’s long-term outlook.

The delay at Grasberg is another reminder of the risks of investing in mining companies, as natural events can significantly disrupt operations. Still, Wall Street analysts maintain a generally positive outlook for the stock over the next 12 months. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $65 implies about 15% upside in shares. The average target price updated after the company’s earnings report is slightly higher, at $66.60.