The government needs to sell hundreds of billions in duration. That
competes with your stocks. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
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 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏



 

[Morning Watchlist]

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TREASURY ANNOUNCEMENT DAY. A DECADE OF DEFENSE BACKLOGS. AND THE CHINA
STIMULUS TRAP. THREE SETUPS.

_A quick note from Behind the Markets_

Wall Street loves narratives that fit on a bumper sticker. "AI fixes
everything." "The consumer is fine." "The Fed's got it under control."

Meanwhile, the real market is being driven by plumbing: Treasury
supply, capital costs, and who gets paid first when budgets get tight.

Today I'm focusing on the stuff that actually moves money.

-------------------------

1) THE TREASURY SUPPLY MACHINE IS BACK ON THE FIELD — AND IT'S A
STEALTH HEADWIND FOR EVERY RISK ASSET

Most investors treat Treasury auctions like background noise. That's a
mistake.

Today is QUARTERLY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT DAY — the first Wednesday
of May, when Treasury tells the market exactly how much duration it
needs to sell over the coming quarter. The announcement covers the
3-year note, 10-year note, and 30-year bond auctions. The last
refunding (November 2025) offered $125 BILLION across the three
maturities: $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes,
and $25 billion in 30-year bonds.

Given the fiscal trajectory — deficits projected to exceed $2
TRILLION IN FY2027 per the TBAC, with the $1.5 trillion defense budget
and reconciliation spending adding to the supply pipeline — the
market is watching whether Treasury _increases_ auction sizes this
quarter. Even maintaining current sizes means the government is
selling roughly $500 BILLION IN COUPON SECURITIES PER QUARTER into a
market where the Fed is no longer buying and private demand has to
absorb every dollar.

Here's the contrarian angle: Treasury supply is a tax on everything
else. When the government sells paper in size, it competes with
corporate bonds, mortgages, private credit — and ultimately equity
multiples. The bond market can tighten financial conditions without a
single Fed move.

And the squeeze shows up in the weakest link first: small caps that
need to refinance, regional banks wrestling with the $875 BILLION CRE
MATURITY WALL, levered REITs, and any business model that assumed
rates would be lower by now.

Meanwhile, stablecoin reserve demand — Standard Chartered's
projection of $800 BILLION TO $1 TRILLION in new T-bill buying through
2028 — is concentrating at the _front end_ of the curve. That
creates a divergence: the short end gets structurally bid while the
long end has to find new buyers for duration. The yield curve shape is
being engineered by forces most equity investors never think about.

ONE ETF POSITIONED FOR A WORLD WHERE LONG-END SUPPLY PRESSURES YIELDS
HIGHER:

ETF: ISHARES 0-3 MONTH TREASURY BOND ETF (SYM: SGOV)
Ultra-short Treasury exposure that yields 3.9%+ with zero duration
risk — the instrument that benefits from front-end scarcity while
avoiding the long-end supply headwind.

SGOV sits at the exact maturity range where stablecoin demand
concentrates and Treasury supply is lightest. In a world where the
quarterly refunding keeps pumping 10-year and 30-year paper into the
market, SGOV holders don't care. They're collecting yield at the short
end where demand is structural and growing. When today's announcement
hits and the market digests how much duration it needs to absorb, SGOV
is the instrument that doesn't flinch.

BOTTOM LINE: Treasury supply is the quiet force that can drain
liquidity from stocks even on days when the headlines look "calm."
Watch rates. Watch auctions. Watch the stuff the talking heads ignore.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

2) DEFENSE SPENDING IS EXPLODING — BUT THE REAL OPPORTUNITY IS IN
THE UNSEXY SUPPLIERS AND LONG-DATED PROGRAMS

Retail investors keep making the same mistake in defense. They chase
the obvious: the big primes, the TV-friendly weapons systems, the
"wartime trade."

But the government's contract tape tells a different story: sustained
procurement, support, and platforms with multi-year tails.

The Air Force awarded MARVIN ENGINEERING CO. a $138.2 MILLION
requirements contract for guided missile launchers and associated
power supplies, with work expected through APRIL 30, 2036. That's not
a "one quarter pop." That's a decade-long revenue stream for a company
most investors have never heard of.

The Navy announced a $325.9 MILLION multiple-award contract for up to
474 COMPOSITE RIGID HULL INFLATABLE BOATS, with maximum cumulative
value of $650.1 MILLION OVER 10 YEARS. This is logistics, maritime
mobility, and distributed operations — the stuff modern defense
planners actually buy.

These contracts sit inside the broader buildout we've been tracking
all month: a $1.5 TRILLION FY2027 DEFENSE BUDGET, $54.6 BILLION for
the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, the PAC-3 production ramp from
600 to 2,000 interceptors, the Raytheon seven-year munitions
framework, the Anduril $20 billion Lattice AI platform deal, and
Europe mobilizing €800+ BILLION through ReArm Europe. The demand
signal isn't a single program. It's an industrial mobilization.

ONE COMPANY POSITIONED IN THE DEFENSE SUPPLIER LAYER WHERE DECADE-LONG
BACKLOGS CREATE COMPOUNDING VALUE:

Company: CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (SYM: CW)
A mid-cap defense and industrial manufacturer specializing in
mission-critical components — valves, sensors, electronics, and
actuation systems — for naval, aerospace, and nuclear applications.

Curtiss-Wright is currently trading around $728.41. The company
operates in exactly the contract layer the Pentagon is filling:
precision-engineered components with qualification barriers,
sole-source positions, and multi-year production tails. When the Air
Force writes a 10-year launcher contract and the Navy writes a 10-year
boat contract, the components inside those systems come from suppliers
like CW — companies with certification moats that keep out copycats
and pricing power that follows production ramps.

BOTTOM LINE: Defense is turning into an industrial base rebuild story.
The best trades aren't the famous tickers — they're the suppliers
quietly stacking decade-long backlogs.

3) CHINA'S QUIET STIMULUS IS REAL — BUT IT WON'T "SAVE GLOBAL
GROWTH" THE WAY WALL STREET WANTS

Every time China hints at stimulus, the same chorus returns.
"Commodity boom!" "Emerging markets rip!" "Global reflation is back!"

And every time, U.S. investors end up holding the bag because they
bought the headline instead of the mechanics.

Last week's PMI data confirmed the two-speed problem: manufacturing at
50.3 (export orders hitting a two-year high at 50.3), but
non-manufacturing fell into CONTRACTION AT 49.4. Domestic new orders
_fell_ 1 point while input costs surged to 63.7 on the oil shock. Real
estate investment plunged 29.5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR in Q4 2025. The
consumer is weak. The property sector is deflating. And the export
engine is humming on global demand that has nothing to do with
Beijing's stimulus.

Here's the contrarian frame:

China can boost activity without boosting equity returns. If stimulus
flows into state-linked projects, the beneficiaries are not
necessarily public minority shareholders. It can stabilize employment
while crushing margins through price controls, subsidies, and
"stability" mandates. And it can lift some commodities while leaving
others dead — because China isn't "one economy." It's property,
manufacturing, tech, and consumer, and those cycles don't move
together.

A XI-TRUMP SUMMIT is being planned for May, with Section 301 tariffs
on the agenda. The MATCH Act just cleared the House Foreign Affairs
Committee, targeting the semiconductor equipment that flows between
the U.S. and China. Every one of these developments adds friction —
not resolution — to the China investment thesis.

ONE COMPANY THAT CAPTURES CHINA'S EXPORT STRENGTH WITHOUT THE DOMESTIC
DOWNSIDE:

Company: FREEPORT-MCMORAN (SYM: FCX)
The world's largest publicly traded copper producer — the single
best proxy for global industrial demand, with direct exposure to
China's manufacturing output without dependence on its domestic
consumer.

Freeport is currently trading around $56.99. Copper is the metal most
sensitive to China's _factory_ economy — the part that's still
expanding. Every unit of Chinese manufacturing output consumes copper,
and China's export orders just hit their highest level in two years.
Freeport captures that demand pull without betting on the domestic
consumer recovery that keeps disappointing. And the structural copper
deficit from AI data center buildouts, global electrification, and
defense manufacturing adds a demand floor that exists regardless of
what Beijing does.

BOTTOM LINE: China stimulus headlines are designed to move sentiment.
Your job is to trade the second-order effects — and refuse to
overpay for a story.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

4) THE RETAIL INVESTOR'S CHECKLIST: WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS TODAY

If you're trying to stay sane in this market, ignore 90% of the noise.

Here's what matters into the next 24 hours:

TREASURY SUPPLY SIGNALS. The quarterly refunding announcement drops
today. Watch whether auction sizes increase, and more importantly,
watch the 10-year yield reaction. If the market demands higher yield
to absorb the supply, equity multiples compress — and the weakest
balance sheets feel it first.

DEFENSE CONTRACT TAPE. Decade-long backlogs are being built in plain
sight. The primes get the headlines. The supplier layer gets the
pricing power. Build a watchlist of the underfollowed names that don't
trend on social media but show up in the War.gov contract releases
every single week.

CHINA "STIMULUS" HEADLINES. Treat them as a catalyst to fade crowded
trades and hunt for mispriced second-order winners. Don't pay premium
multiples for policy hope. Demand a margin of safety.

BOTTOM LINE: The edge isn't predicting the next headline. It's
positioning for the flows those headlines create.

-------------------------

_Huge Alerts_

BNZI BREAKOUT WATCH: AI GROWTH MEETS TURNAROUND SETUP!
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Banzai International (NASDAQ: BNZI) is rapidly emerging as a
high-growth disruptor in the AI-driven marketing technology space,
delivering explosive financial performance that underscores its
accelerating momentum. 

The company posted full-year 2025 revenue of $12.2 million, up 169%
year-over-year, alongside fourth-quarter revenue growth of 116% and
gross margin expansion to 81.9%, signaling a scalable, high-efficiency
SaaS model taking shape.

With more than 150,000 customers and enterprise adoption from major
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Its planned acquisition of ConnectAndSell, expected to contribute
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At the same time, technical and sentiment indicators are beginning to
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-------------------------

_Before You Go_

If Treasury supply tightens liquidity and growth slows, what breaks
first: the over-levered balance sheets… or the over-confident
narratives?

That's the question Wall Street doesn't want you to ask.

We are issuing this disclosure in compliance with Section 17(b) of the
Securities Act, which requires us to disclose any compensation
received or expected to be received in cash or in kind in connection
with the purchase or sale of any security.

We would like to inform you that we have received or expect to receive
compensation in connection with the purchase or sale of the securities
of Battery X Metals Inc. (BATXF). The compensation consists of $6,500
and was received/will be received from i2i Marketing Group.

This communication should not be considered as an endorsement of the
securities of adviser Battery X Metals Inc. (BATXF) and we are not
responsible for any errors or omissions in any information provided
about the securities of Battery X Metals Inc. (BATXF) by Edge on the
Street or i2i Merketing Group.

We encourage you to conduct your own due diligence and research before
making any investment decisions. You should also consult with a
financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

This disclosure is made as of 05/06/2026.

We are issuing this disclosure in compliance with Section 17(b) of the
Securities Act, which requires us to disclose any compensation
received or expected to be received in cash or in kind in connection
with the purchase or sale of any security.

We would like to inform you that we have received or expect to receive
compensation in connection with the purchase or sale of the securities
of Banzai International, Inc. (NASDAQ: BNZI). The compensation
consists of up to $7,500 and was received/will be received from
Sideways Frequency.

This communication should not be considered as an endorsement of the
securities of adviser Banzai International, Inc. (NASDAQ: BNZI) and we
are not responsible for any errors or omissions in any information
provided about the securities of Banzai International, Inc. (NASDAQ:
BNZI).

We encourage you to conduct your own due diligence and research before
making any investment decisions. You should also consult with a
financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

This disclosure is made as of 05/06/2026

Our mailing address is:
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