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TPG Built a Record Year, Then Lost 40%—Is the Selloff Overdone?

By Peter Frank. Posted: 4/16/2026.

TPG Inc. (NASDAQ: TPG) built one of the strongest track records in alternative asset management in 2025, then watched its stock fall about 40% early this year.

The question is whether that decline signals broader trouble for the economy and private markets or whether it’s an overreaction that creates a buying opportunity. For investors confident in the future of alternatives and an AI-led economy, TPG could be a timely play.

TPG’s Growth Story Remains Strong

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The company’s recent results are clear. Assets under management (AUM) grew 23% to more than $303 billion last year.

The firm raised a record $51 billion in new capital, up 71% from 2024, and it deployed a record $52 billion across its platforms.

Fee-related earnings rose 25% to roughly $953 million. Its fee margin in the fourth quarter expanded to 52% from 41% a year earlier, reflecting improved profitability as the business scaled.

As AUM has nearly tripled since the company went public four years ago, fee-related earnings have grown at an approximate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%.

The fourth quarter capped an exceptional year. TPG reported adjusted earnings of $0.71 per share, well above analyst expectations. Net income attributable to the company rose nearly 500% from the prior-year period. The company’s shares hit a 52-week high at the start of the new year.

Market Pressures Trigger a Sharp Selloff

Then came the selloff. Like other firms in the alternatives industry, TPG was swept up in a tougher market environment. Geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, and persistently high interest rates pressured valuations. Concerns about AI’s impact on software companies and private credit added another layer of anxiety, cooling sentiment.

Major competitors such as Apollo (NYSE: APO) and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) limited investor withdrawals from certain funds, raising industrywide liquidity concerns. The contagion affected TPG and peers like KKR (NYSE: KKR) and Blue Owl (NYSE: OWL). TPG’s stock, which had traded around $70 early in the year, slid to the high $30s by spring even as the underlying business continued to perform.

CEO Jon Winkelried sought to temper concerns on the company’s first-quarter earnings call, noting that software represented only about 2% of TPG’s credit AUM and about 18% of its private equity AUM.

Strategic Moves Signal Continued Momentum

While the stock was falling, TPG continued to execute strategically. In January, the firm closed a $500 million stake in Jackson Financial, locking in fee-earning AUM of $12 billion over five years as part of a long-term partnership.

In March, reports indicated OpenAI was in talks with TPG, Advent International, Bain Capital, and Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM) on a roughly $10 billion deal to distribute enterprise AI products across their portfolio companies.

TPG management projected another strong year for 2026, with full-year fundraising guidance around $50 billion.

Most analysts share a positive view. With an overall Moderate Buy rating, the consensus price target is $64 per share. Twelve analysts rate the company a Buy, while five recommend Hold. The expected price range runs from $48 to $80 per share.

Risks Remain Despite Positive Outlook

Even with strong recent results, investors should be cautious. TPG’s earnings depend heavily on deal activity, fundraising, and asset realizations. The dividend payout ratio sits well above 500% on trailing earnings—appealing for income but a reminder that the yield may not be sustainable if realizations slow. And with the lowest analyst target at $48 per share, upside from current levels could be limited.

Competition is intense. Blackstone (NYSE: BX), Apollo, and KKR each manage hundreds of billions with deeper institutional relationships and broader product suites. TPG is growing rapidly, but it competes with some of the largest players for the same capital.

A Patient Investor’s Opportunity

TPG isn’t a buy at any price, but the steep selloff makes it a more interesting risk-reward case. Business fundamentals remain solid, and many of the current headwinds may be temporary.

The income story has improved for investors who bought the dip. With the stock down sharply, TPG’s annualized dividend of $2.44 per share now implies a yield of roughly 5.5%, higher than most large-cap financials.

For patient investors willing to tolerate rate uncertainty and deal-cycle volatility, the mix of dividend yield, projected ~25% EPS growth, and analyst targets well above current trading levels is compelling. That said, if the macro environment deteriorates further, downside risk remains.

Overall, TPG looks like a high-quality business experiencing a rough patch rather than a broken one—an investment that rewards patience more than urgency.