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Apple's Foldable iPhone Foray: A Real Needle Mover or Hype Train?

Reported by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 4/15/2026.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit it out of the park with its iPhone 17 lineup. The new family of flagship devices helped the firm post its highest iPhone sales ever in Q4 2025 and record its highest total revenue. Despite headwinds from skepticism about Apple’s artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, iPhone 17 excitement pushed the stock to all-time highs in December 2025.

Now, the Magnificent Seven company is moving into a high-tech market it has long been absent from: foldable phones.

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According to Bloomberg Technology, the company is set to debut its first foldable phone, reportedly dubbed the “iPhone Ultra,” in September 2026. However, there are also reports that manufacturing issues could delay the device’s release.

For investors, the question is whether the iPhone Ultra can be a meaningful driver for the tech stock rather than just a premium niche product. Here’s what the data suggests.

Apple Projected to Reaccelerate Foldable Market Growth to 30%

Foldable phones got off to a fast start during their first few years on the market. Research firm Omdia notes that the first foldables appeared in 2019, and by 2021 annual shipments had skyrocketed—rising 309% year over year (YOY) to 9 million. The market is still growing, but growth has since tapered significantly.

IDC estimates foldable phone sales will reach about 20.6 million units in 2025, roughly 10% YOY. That equates to an approximate 23% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025. While far below the earlier triple‑digit gains, this is notable given that overall smartphone shipments declined considerably from 2021 to 2025; overall shipments rose just 2% YOY in 2025, according to Omdia.

Apple’s entry into the foldable market is expected to reaccelerate growth. IDC projects foldable shipments will increase by 30% in 2026 and estimates Apple will capture a large share—about 22% of shipments and 34% of sales value. IDC assumes the iPhone Ultra will carry an average price near $2,400, roughly double the $1,199 base price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max (the lowest‑storage version).

Analysts are broadly optimistic about Apple making inroads in this high-growth segment. Whether that translates into a major near-term impact on Apple’s share price, however, is less certain.

Low Foldable Penetration Likely Limits Near-Term Impacts

Despite the enthusiasm, foldables still represent a very small portion of the overall smartphone market. Counterpoint Research reports that foldables accounted for just 1.6% of the smartphone market in 2025. That low penetration is the biggest factor limiting the iPhone Ultra’s near-term impact on Apple’s shares.

Apple could, however, change consumer perceptions of foldables and materially increase adoption—especially in the U.S., where it holds roughly 50% market share as of Q3 2025. The absence of an Apple foldable has likely dampened broader adoption so far.

Even in China, the largest foldable market, penetration remains modest. Omdia estimates foldables made up just 3.2% of the Chinese market in H1 2025. After six years of availability, that raises questions about how large the foldable segment can ultimately become.

Looking farther ahead, IDC expects foldable growth to slow after the 2026 boost—declining to about 9.3% by 2029—but still outpace non‑foldable smartphones, which IDC projects will not exceed 3% annual growth from 2026–2029. They also see Apple continuing to gain share, with shipment market share rising to 34% by 2029.

2026: A Test Run for Apple’s Foldable Ambitions

The data paint an interesting picture: foldable sales seem poised to grow much faster than the overall market, but from a very small base. If consumers respond favorably to the iPhone Ultra and Apple captures significant share, the stock could see some upside in late 2026.

The longer-term impact could be more meaningful if foldables become a sustainable, high-growth business for Apple. The company could also benefit from higher margins if iPhone Ultra pricing is as elevated as IDC suggests. However, sustainable is the key word: a 2023 Kantar report found that 55% of consumers who bought foldables later switched back to conventional smartphones.

Overall, foldables remain a niche market today, and the iPhone Ultra alone is not a primary reason to own the stock. Still, shares could see meaningful upside over a multi‑year period if Apple’s foldable foray proves successful and convinces customers to stick with the product beyond 2026.