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These 3 Country ETFs Are Big Beneficiaries of the Iran Ceasefire

Written by Dan Schmidt. Originally Published: 4/13/2026.

The tenuous ceasefire in Iran has the S&P 500 roaring back, reversing a month-long decline that unnerved consumers and investors. But the U.S. rally may obscure the real beneficiaries: international markets that depend on energy imports. If the ceasefire restores normal oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, investors could see outperformance in international markets — most notably in Germany, South Korea, and Japan. Here’s why.

Heavy Energy Import Needs Made These Nations Vulnerable

Markets across the globe (sans the energy sector) dropped after the United States launched strikes on Iran at the end of February, but the declines were uneven. While U.S. investors felt pain as the S&P 500 fell about 10% in less than a month, markets in Europe and Asia fared worse. The European STOXX 600 fell roughly 12% over the same period, the Nikkei fell nearly 15%, and South Korea’s KOSPI plunged about 25%.

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European and Asian markets were hit harder because they rely more on imported energy. The United States is relatively insulated from the worst of a supply shock thanks to larger domestic production, but many European and Asian economies lack the capacity to blunt massive disruptions. Countries in these regions depend on cheap energy imports, mostly from the Persian Gulf. For example, South Korea imports more than 95% of its oil and is one of the world’s largest importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Its economy is driven by energy-intensive exports such as cars, semiconductors, and chemicals. Japan likewise imports more than 90% of its oil and relies heavily on exports.

Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled, but the prospect of reopening has sent indices in Europe and Asia sharply higher at the start of April. The situation is fluid, and the ceasefire, according to the U.S. delegation, is admittedly fragile. Still, optimism is rising in these energy-starved markets, and a normalization of traffic would provide outsized benefits to the hardest-hit stocks.

If the Iran conflict is truly in its final stages, Germany, South Korea, and Japan are likely to see the largest market upside. Rather than picking individual stocks, a practical way to play this theme is with country-specific ETFs that provide broad market exposure.

Global X DAX Germany ETF

The Global X DAX Germany ETF (NASDAQ: DAX) is a solid option for exposure to German stocks thanks to a low expense ratio and a composition similar to the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSE: EWG). DAX has just over $250 million in assets under management (AUM), compared with EWG’s roughly $1.38 billion. What DAX lacks in AUM it offsets with lower costs: a 0.20% expense ratio versus EWG’s 0.50%.

DAX still trades an average of more than 60,000 shares daily and allocates nearly 30% of its holdings to Germany’s industrial sector, which includes energy-intensive businesses such as autos, petrochemicals, and defense contractors.

A bullish cross in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests downward momentum is turning, and the fund has rallied nearly 10% from its March 27 low. The 50-day moving average is the next key level for DAX, and a sustained move above it could trigger another buying wave.

Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF

South Korean markets are heavily tilted toward technology, thanks to two semiconductor giants that together account for a large share of market-cap-weighted indices.

An investment in South Korea is effectively an investment in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (OTCMKTS: SSNLF). For broad, affordable exposure, consider the Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (NYSE: FLKR).

FLKR charges a very low 0.09% expense ratio, which is impressively cheap for international exposure. Technology makes up more than 47% of its holdings, with industrials accounting for another roughly 15%.

Investors moved back into the market quickly, and the fund has already reclaimed its 50-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned to bullish territory, suggesting the semiconductor-led rally may be resuming.

The iShares MSCI Japan ETF

The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSE: EWJ) is the priciest fund on this list (0.50% expense ratio), but it is more concentrated in tech and industrials than the cheaper Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (NYSE: FLJP). Those sectors are likely to benefit most if oil flows normalize through the Strait. Nearly 20% of EWJ’s holdings are in banks; tech accounts for 18.8% and industrials 16.8%. You also get substantial liquidity: about $19.8 billion in AUM and average daily volume above 10 million shares.

Like South Korea, technical signals point to returning bullish momentum in Japan. EWJ found support at the 200-day moving average, and a bullish MACD crossover helped lift the fund back above the 50-day moving average. Those are encouraging signs for a market that has enjoyed a broader renaissance over the last few years.