1. 97% of state legislators running for re-election have advanced to the general election so far in 2020
2. Ten Republicans running for Republican nomination to succeed Rep. Yoho in Florida’s Third District
3. Candidate Connection spotlight

97% of state legislators running for re-election have advanced to the general election so far in 2020

There is a little more than a month remaining in the primary election season, with the cycle’s final primaries in Delaware on September 15. Although we don’t have certified results for all states that have held primaries so far, our researchers analyzed how incumbents have performed compared with recent years, and I had to share these findings with you.

So far in 2020, 97.3% of state legislators seeking re-election have advanced from their primaries, putting 2020 on track to mirror turnover rates recorded in 2018 and 2016.

Eighty-six of the nation's state legislative chambers in 44 states are holding regularly-scheduled elections in 2020. In the 33 states where we have final results from state legislative primaries, 3,140 incumbents filed for re-election. Of that number, 84 incumbents lost their primary. Here’s how that figure compares to the last two even-numbered years:

• In 2018, 147 incumbents lost in primaries out of the 4,952 state legislators that filed for re-election. This means that 97.0% of incumbents seeking re-election advanced from the primary. 

• In 2016, 123 incumbents lost in primaries of the 4,895 state legislators seeking re-election. This means that 97.5% of incumbents advanced from the primary.

The 84 incumbents who have lost so far in 2020 include 59 Republicans and 25 Democrats. The states with the most incumbents that were defeated in the primary are Kansas and West Virginia—with 10 each. In both states, all 10 defeated incumbents were Republicans. 

Looking at just the 33 states where we have final results from state legislative primaries, here is a breakdown of 2020 as compared with 2016 and 2018:

Click the link below for the full list of state legislative incumbents who have lost in primaries so far in 2020.  And to stay up-to-date on all the news and election results during the primary season, sign up for our weekly Heart of the Primaries newsletters.

Learn more

       

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Ten Republicans running for Republican nomination to succeed Rep. Yoho in Florida’s Third District 

Eleven states have held primary elections so far in August, with primaries in three more states—Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming—scheduled for August 18.

Voters in those states will select nominees for two U.S. Senate seats, 29 U.S. House seats, 45 state Senate seats, and 220 state House seats. There are 11 battleground primaries, which are races we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in government or to be particularly competitive or compelling. One of those is the Republican primary in Florida's 3rd Congressional District. 

Republican primary in Florida’s 3rd Congressional District

Heading into the election the incumbent is Republican Ted Yoho, who was first elected in 2012. Yoho announced on December 10, 2019, that he would not seek re-election, saying that he had pledged to serve no more than four terms. Yoho is one of 27 U.S. House Republicans not running for re-election in 2020.

Ten candidates are running in this primary. Three candidates—Kat Cammack, Judson Sapp, and James St. George—lead in noteworthy primary endorsements and fundraising.

Cammack has received endorsements from two Tea Party organizations and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Three members of Florida's congressional delegation have endorsed Sapp including U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). St. George was endorsed by Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.).

According to campaign finance reports through July 30, St. George, a surgeon, led in fundraising having raised $920,000. Sapp, a railroad contractor, has raised $770,000 and Cammack, a former deputy chief of staff to Yoho, raised $490,000.

This district supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D), 56% to 40%. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican. 

Nine of the 10 candidates submitted a biography and key messages to Ballotpedia ahead of the primary. Click here to see their responses.

Candidate Connection spotlight

Over the last few weeks, we’ve highlighted some candidate responses to a selected question in Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. The survey is designed to elicit insightful and thoughtful responses from candidates on what they care about, what they stand for, and what they hope to achieve, and we ask all candidates that have a Ballotpedia profile to complete it. 

As I’ve said over the last few weeks, one of my favorite things about the survey is that it really helps you get to know a candidate on a personal level. Last week, we highlighted some candidates’ answers to the question:  “What was your very first job?.” The week before, we spotlighted how some candidates responded to “What’s your favorite book?” 

Today, we’re bringing you a few answers to the question: “If you could be any fictional character, who would you want to be?”

We’ve had 921 candidates in the current cycle provide us with a response, including these:

"Iron Man because he is a super hero, not because of great strength or super-natural causes, but just because of his superior intellect, creativity and ability to think past current norms!"

-Maryann Christensen, Republican running for Utah House of Representatives, District 37

“I would be Superman. I really like his concern for making the world right and how he balanced that with his career as a journalist and his romantic love for Lois Lane. I am happy to be the woman version of Superman, but Superwoman is not as appealing as a superhero as superman."

-Vanessa Enoch, Democratic candidate for Ohio's 8th Congressional District

"Why go with fictional.  Henry David Thoreau, Fight the injustice, then retire and leave people to their lives."

-Joe Evans, Libertarian candidate for Idaho's 1st Congressional District

And if you want to encourage even more candidates to respond to our survey, send them this link and ask them to complete it so you can learn more about them!  

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