Web Version [link removed] | Update Preferences [link removed] [link removed] WARN ACT + Unemployment Data Update: March through August 8, 2020

While still well above pre-COVID levels, total initial claims (regular UI plus PUA) continued to show improvement for both California and the nation as a whole. For the week of August 8, total initial claims for both these programs were down 11.4% from the prior week in California. Progress was even more pronounced in the rest of the country, with total initial claims (unadjusted) dropping 19.7% for the US as a whole.

In California, initial claims for the regular UI program were down 3.9% from the prior week to 213,482 (unadjusted). PUA claims by the self-employed fell by 19.7% to 163,805. The combined level for the two programs remains high, but these latest numbers show a two-week reversal of the upward trend previously seen since the end of May.

For the US as a whole, the seasonally adjusted numbers for the regular UI program show a more pronounced drop of 19.1% to 963,000. The more relevant unadjusted numbers showed initial claims for the regular UI program weekly numbers down again, at 15.8% to 831,856 and making this the second week in a row regular claims fell below a million since the crisis began in March. Nationally, PUA claims were also down, dropping 25.5% to 488,462. California PUA claims from the self-employed continued at a third of the national total.

Comparing the claims trajectories to the week of May 9 (the week following the initial spike in PUA claims), total initial claims in California (regular UI plus PUA) while easing were still up 8% over this period, while the total was down 67% for the rest of the US. This data again indicates how much more severe the economic downturn has been in California, along with the challenges this situation presents for the ability of the state to move quickly through the upcoming recovery period.

Combining the most recent initial claims numbers (2 weeks’ worth for PUA to account for differences in data reporting) along with an easing in the continuing claims data, 6.02 million California workers were receiving or applying for unemployment insurance last week, down 9% from the week before. This number, however, does not include initial and continuing claims for PEUC and other much smaller benefit programs.

Although not included in the figures below, claims under the new Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program continued to rise. This new category allows an additional 13 weeks of coverage for persons who have exhausted their regular benefits, including eligibility for the recently announced additional $300 to $400 a week. California claims were up to 270,747, remaining at 22% of total claims nationally.

Under the revised WARN Act procedures, companies with significant layoffs still are required to submit the notices, but any nonfiling penalties are waived. These notices do not cover all current layoffs, but provide a current indicator of the geographic dispersion. The data also indicates that the number of permanent closures and layoffs continue to rise as economic restrictions remain in place, now accounting for 17.4% of covered employed for notices becoming effecting since March.

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