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"Zero doubt, they want numbers, they want deportations. They want to keep as many people detained as possible, and stress the system. I have seen judges that have not made it very long in this new regime, where they've been walked off the bench for whatever reasons … They're in the middle of dictating an oral decision and they get an email, or they get a tap on the shoulder, literally on the bench, saying, 'Please come with me.' We've never seen anything like this.”

-Former Immigration Judge Ryan Wood, as immigration judges speak out against Trumps court purges

Sunday Rundown

If it feels like things have been moving slowly in this newsletter, it’s because the same is true at the Capitol. And this week brought us even closer to a standstill. As we enter the most important stretch of session, the Governor has put a full pause on signing bills, implementing a moratorium until the Republican majority releases their budget. That means bills that were ready for a final vote are now sitting in a holding pattern for the time being.

I felt that firsthand this week with two of my bills in the Senate. One had to be held because of the moratorium. At the same time, a bright spot, my PFAS firefighting foam ban passed unanimously out of the Senate. That took a lot of coordination, including working with President Petersen, and with his amendment added, it now heads back to the House for a final vote once the moratorium is lifted.

All of this is happening at a timely moment as the Finance Advisory Committee met to give an updated economic outlook for the state. The numbers tightened in a real way. Back in January, the state estimated about $577 million in available resources. That has now dropped to $378 million, about a $200 million swing in just a few months. And that is before we factor in big outstanding decisions like tax conformity or ongoing spending.

Click here or the image above to watch the full Finance Committee meeting

The University of Arizona’s economic outlook showed slower growth, weak hiring, and declining consumer confidence, tied to ongoing uncertainty and federal policy choices. Things like tariffs, volatility in economic policy, and global instability are starting to show up in real ways. What’s driving that shift matters, because these outcomes were not just predictable, but avoidable.

Since inception, and throughout initiation of the Federal governments profoundly flawed plans to tax American’s with tariffs, mass deport immigrants, and initiate invasions and wars in other countries, economists, policy experts, and anyone with a sense of understanding, have been warning that these rash decisions are reckless and taxpayers will bear the cost. Here’s the real breakdown of the real numbers:

• War in the Middle East - The Pentagon estimates another $200B is needed to fund supplemental war costs

  
  

• Federal policy decisions are directly hitting our bottom line. Without them, the economy would be about 1% stronger, having roughly $300 billion more in output each year, with more jobs

  
  

• Tariffs are acting as a tax on Americans, costing the average household roughly $1,000 to $1,300 a year, and in some cases much more

  
  

• The Federal government is spending over $180 billion on mass deportations efforts. Mass deportations would shrink the economy by over $1 trillion, up to $1.7 trillion in lost GDP, while also wiping out more than $75 billion a year in tax revenue.

  
  

• Cuts to federal science agency grants have cost the U.S. economy an estimated $94.6 billion, while broader federal workforce changes have impacted the economy by over $165.6 billion.

  
  

• Political pressure to lower interest rates prematurely risks driving up prices over time and undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve. We’re already seeing the impact of that kind of uncertainty, with markets reacting sharply, including a $200 billion loss in equities, a weakening dollar, and rising gold prices

When leadership lacks sound judgment, the consequences are not abstract nor short term, they show up in higher costs, fewer opportunities, and real strain on families. Just as we correctly predicted five years ago that the flat tax and school vouchers for the rich would wipe out $2B - $3B in state funds.

Now, mismanagement at the Federal level has further hurt our bottom line with the estimated $200M loss in state revenue projections.

If we want better outcomes, we have to expect, and vote, for better leadership. Next week, we hope to finally see the budget and where the legislative majority’s priorities lie.

With kindness,

Community Corner

This week’s Community Corner highlights Arizona Center for Empowerment (ACE), an organization doing the important work of building power at the community level. ACE brings people together around the issues that impact their daily lives, from housing to economic opportunity, and creates space for real conversations that turn into action.

They are constant voices of advocacy both in their neighborhoods and at the Capitol, helping people understand how decisions are made and how to make their voices heard. Whether it is hosting community listening sessions or knocking on doors, their strength in organizing and education helps empower people and build leadership power at the local level.

In my conversations with LD 5 ACE members at the Capitol this week they shared how one interaction helped someone understand their path to restoring their voting rights, allowing them to take back their power via their vote. This is a great example of how ACE empowers Arizonans one conversation at a time to speak up for their interests and shape the future of their communities.

Rep Liguori with Brandy, Lena, and Aurelia at ACE’s Dinero pa’l Pueblo – Our Money at Work Lunch with Legislators

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