Also: Student-Athletes’ Attendance and the Future of the US Postal Service

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Edited by Brady Africk and Lexi Baker

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the future of NATO, student-athletes’ high school attendance, and the US Postal Service’s impending fiscal collapse.

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1. NATO’s Next Phase ([link removed] )

04.16_Pletka_Thiessen ([link removed] )

Topline: Throughout the war in Iran, NATO members have faced pressure to support the United States. AEI’s Danielle Pletka and Marc A. Thiessen speak ([link removed] ) with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte about how President Trump’s strategy is shaping NATO’s future and argue that the president’s diplomatic bluntness has successfully pushed the alliance to offer more contributions.

5 Percent Commitment: Thanks largely to President Trump, the United States’ NATO allies recently agreed to increase their defense and security spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, a significant shift from the long-standing 2 percent benchmark. This increase will bolster European defenses, allowing the US to shift resources to other high-priority areas.

Current Posture: That NATO comprises 32 member countries, representing roughly one billion people, underscores the alliance’s scale and shared responsibilities. However, as current US deployments reflect post–World War II and Cold War realities, Pletka and Thiessen question whether the structure should evolve. Around 12,000–15,000 NATO troops are already positioned along the alliance’s eastern flank as a deterrent against Russia.

“We are at an inflection point for NATO. We are at a moment when we need to start to talk very seriously, not out of anger or out of pique, but seriously, about how NATO looks to the future.”

—Danielle Pletka ([link removed] )

More on NATO
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2. Student-Athletes’ Attendance Boost ([link removed] )

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Topline: In a recent study of Indiana high school students, AEI’s Nat Malkus and Sam Hollon find ([link removed] ) that student-athletes’ absence rate was 1.37 points lower than their nonathlete peers’. Dubbing this the “athlete effect,” the authors posit that these numbers reveal how student agency affects attendance—an important insight in the continued fight against chronic absenteeism.

The Double Bump: Across all sports, varsity athletes’ absence rate was 0.97 percentage points lower when students were out of season and an additional 0.88 points lower when their sport was in season. This combined effect of 1.85 percentage points is large, considering that high school absences averaged 6.5 percent statewide.

Student-Athletes: The impact of this difference is spread across millions of students. In the 2024–25 school year, 8.2 million students participated in high school sports, a 2.5 percent increase from the previous year. In Indiana, 23 percent of students played at least one varsity sport.

“Varsity sports are not a scalable attendance solution for all students, but they show that students have the means to improve their attendance when they have credible, motivating reasons to show up consistently. Varsity athletes’ attendance shows that many students already do use these means, and solutions to the attendance crisis after the pandemic may lie in motivating more students to do the same.”

—Nat Malkus ([link removed] )

More on Attendance
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3. The US Postal Service on the Verge of Collapse ([link removed] )

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Topline: The number of mail pieces that the US Postal Service (USPS) handles per year has fallen from 213 billion in 2008 to 112 billion in 2025. (Mail is the agency’s key source of income.) AEI’s Kevin R. Kosar warns ([link removed] ) that with each passing week, the Postal Service is closer to shutting down, and taxpayers could be left footing the bill.

Staying Afloat: The USPS—along with 17 other government corporations—uses revenue from selling goods and services to pay for itself. Despite attempts to replace lost revenue by delivering more packages, the agency has struggled to compete with private-sector rivals like the United Parcel Service, FedEx, and DHL. Just last month, Amazon announced that USPS will handle 20 percent fewer of the e-commerce company’s packages starting fall 2026.

A Long Time Coming: The crisis has been looming since 2007, when impacts from an increasingly digital environment began to take effect. The following year, the Great Recession cratered the economy. Despite a temporary boom during COVID-19, the agency lost $6.5 billion in 2023, $9.5 billion in 2024, and $9 billion in 2025. This is not to mention the $166 billion in unfunded pension and retiree health benefits that the agency must pay.

“The Postal Service’s looming liquidity crisis is not unexpected. In fact, it has been predicted for nearly two decades and has become increasingly obvious to anyone paying close attention.”

—Kevin R. Kosar ([link removed] )

More on USPS
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Dive into More Data

04.16_Winship ([link removed] )

The State of the Middle Class ([link removed] )

More on the Middle Class
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04.16_CTP ([link removed] )

Iran War Updates: The Strait of Hormuz ([link removed] )

More on Iran
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Special thanks to Drew Kirkpatrick, Rosalie Blacklock, and Hannah Bowen.

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