August 11, 2020: The Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average shows that Joe Biden has a six-percentage point lead over Donald Trump with 12 weeks to go until Election Day.[1]

Given all that has gone on in 2020, it is interesting to note that this is very similar to the lead Biden enjoyed at the beginning of the year—before the pandemic, lockdowns, and killing of George Floyd.

While the numbers are similar today to the beginning of the year, they have not been stable. As recently as six weeks ago, Biden enjoyed a ten-point lead in the RCP average.[1]

It may be that Biden’s double-digit lead was just a temporary fluke and the race is stabilizing at a level that would give the Democrats the White House. On the other hand, Trump has gained four points in six weeks. If he gains another four points in the next 12 weeks, he would be trailing Biden in the popular vote by just 2 points. That’s the same margin as in 2016 when Trump won the Electoral College.

Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.

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