Joe Biden is dropping in the polls -- and here's why. "This divergence of recent days suggests a tightening of the election, and various surveys indicated this is happening. According to the RealClearPolitics poll average, Biden’s lead dropped by four percentage points over the last two weeks." (RealClearPolitics) • What's happening: An average taken from recent polls shows that Joe Biden has dropped four percentage points in just two weeks. While the left and media (but we repeat ourselves!) have claimed the wide polling gap shows Biden is running away with the 2020 election, that just isn't true.
• What's at stake: It's good news for President Trump, so you know the media will hate it. Get ready for an avalanche of stories about why polls don't matter now that they show Biden down. But we think the change in poll numbers show two important elements of the 2020 campaign:
(1) Biden is a terrible campaigner. The media wants to reminisce about their fond memories of the Obama Administration. But Joe Biden just can't keep up with the mirage.
Consider these stories from just the past two weeks:
-- Watch the video: Biden asked a reporter "Are you a junkie?"
-- Watch the video: Biden told another reporter: "Unlike the African-American community, with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community."
-- Watch the video: Biden got the name of a campaign venue wrong and then told reporters "he did not know where he was," according to the Washington Free Beacon.
The unemployment rate is down, and the new jobs numbers are going up. Last month, according to this piece from RealClearPolitics, the economy added 1.8 million jobs. The combined total of the past three months is 9.3 million jobs added.
Voters remember the economic boom of the pre-pandemic days of the Trump Administration. If America's economy continues to recover from COVID-19, it will be a tremendous benefit to President Trump's re-election campaign -- and the country!
• What else to know: We like to balance out polling stories with a flashback to the 2016 election. Just four years ago, "election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%," according to the Pew Research Center.
We know how that turned out on Election Night 2016, when President Trump won big and turned the electoral map red.
WATCH: AG Bill Barr explains why those who want to up-end the voting process "are playing with fire and are grossly irresponsible.” "Attorney General William Barr told Fox News host Mark Levin during a Sunday interview that those who were promoting drastic changes to the way that Americans vote right before an election were playing with fire and were being “grossly irresponsible." (Daily Wire) • What's happening: Attorney General Bill Bar joined Mark Levin for an interview this weekend and discussed pending changes to the voting process ahead of the 2020 election. AG Barr didn't mince words; he warned that those who want to dramatically change voting processes "are playing with fire and are grossly irresponsible."
• What's at stake: The 2020 election. Here are concerns that AG Barr and Mark Levin talked about, based on the left's calls to turn to automatic vote-by-mail (i.e. ballots mailed to all registered voters):
(1) Ballots could be sent to old or invalid addresses. That happened in the Nevada primary in June, when more than 223,000 mail-in ballots were "sent to outdated addresses."
(2) New voting procedures could lead to a contested election. Think the Florida 2000 recount ... on a nationwide scale.
The Biden campaign announced that it built a network of 600 lawyers ahead of Election Day. As Mark Levin explained in the interview, Biden is "hiring them to go into state court and fight every ballot."
And we'd add two more big concerns for you to consider:
(3) Some groups are challenging vote integrity protections in place already. In Ohio, the League of Women Voters has filed a lawsuit to challenge the use of signature matching to verify voters' identification by mail.
(4) There are issues with postal delivery, either getting to or from the voter in time and with the proper postmarks.
NPR -- no friend of the Trump Administration -- found "at least 65,000 absentee or mail-in ballots have been rejected" as of mid-July this year.
And CBS News ran an experiment to simulate mail-in voting ... and found major issues. You can watch their full video report here.
Bottom line: the stakes this November are very high. The margins of victory in some districts or states will likely be very close. And all Americans must have faith in our voting system as we determine the next president.
• What else to know: Law professor Justin Levitt has continued to update his list of election-related lawsuits across the country. As of this morning, it's up to 194 cases in 42 states plus the District of Columbia. Check out his full list (and bookmark it!) right here.
An early schedule of the Democratic National Convention has Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton but still no AOC. "Former first lady Michelle Obama, former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will reportedly be featured speakers on the first night of the Democratic National Convention." (POLITICO) • What's happening: The Democratic National Convention starts one week from today. Last week, we let you know which speakers would be featured (Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, or AOC, was notably absent). This week, POLITICO has early reports of speakers by day.
• What's at stake: If this is a preview of the 2020 election plan, then the Democratic National Convention schedule looks like it's 2016 all over again. (And the Trump campaign must be happy about that.)
Here's what is known so far: -- Monday: Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, and John Kasich -- Wednesday: Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren -- Thursday: Joe Biden
The incredibly powerful progressive wing of the party can't be happy.
(1) Bernie Sanders and John Kasich are reportedly speaking on the same night. That undercuts whatever "revolutionary" message Sanders may bring to the Democratic Party by pairing him with a Republican governor and former presidential candidate.
(2) Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) may not have a speaking role. New statements suggest she will have "a role." But that can't be what the far left is imagining she's due.
• What else to know: Plans for the Republican National Convention continue apace. Axios reported that each night of the Republican convention will include an American theme: -- land of heroes (Monday) -- land of promise (Tuesday) -- land of opportunity (Wednesday) -- land of greatness (Thursday)
Biden will "introduce" his VP at an online fundraising event. A $100k+ ticket gets access to the meet-and-greet. "The campaign is preparing for a high-dollar event, billed as 'Introducing our Running Mate.' Tickets range from $500 to $250,000, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO. Those paying $100,000 or more will get a pre-event meet-and-greet. Details for the fundraiser 'will be sent to all confirmed participants 24-48 hours prior to the event,' the invitation read." (POLITICO) • What's happening: The Biden campaign is planning a major online fundraising event to "introduce" his VP. (Tickets start at $500 and go up to $250,000; the $100,000 mark is reportedly what it takes to join the private meet-and-greet.) It seems that the invitation has been sent around without the VP pick's name on it.
• What's at stake: It's standard practice for presidential campaigns to use their VP picks to benefit their strategy. In 2008, President Obama used his announcement to build his email and text message contact lists. In 2012, Mitt Romney announced his choice via mobile app.
But, as the POLITICO piece suggests, the Biden campaign is both planning a big fundraising event and considering fundraising ability (which includes the willingness of donors to join them for online events) in the choice.
Biden had told reporters over the weekend he made his choice. But his campaign has already said that isn't true.
P.O. Box 455, Leesburg, VA 20178 |