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In July 1971, Henry Kissinger boarded a flight from Islamabad [ [link removed] ] to Beijing that supposedly didn’t exist. After feigning illness, the National Security Advisor took a covert trip to China that laid the groundwork for Nixon’s later visit. All of this was possible due to Pakistan’s president efforts to create a secret backchannel—one that ultimately reshaped the Cold War as Kissinger managed to cleave Beijing away from Moscow. It may have been the most consequential piece of shuttle diplomacy of the 20th century…and it ran through a country that didn’t exist in 1946 and that most Americans couldn’t find on a map.
And now, 55 years later, Pakistan appears poised to once again play a key role [ [link removed] ] in global affairs. With the U.S. on the verge of another Forever War, a politically problematic development for the Trump Administration, the US President is eager to find an off ramp. Turns out America’s “frenemy” might be the only country in the world capable of throwing Washington a lifeline.
How’s that? To start, it has the only phone that rings in both Washington and Tehran. Pakistan is the only country with direct access to both the American and Iranian leadership [ [link removed] ]. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s military chief, had an unprecedented one-on-one lunch with Trump at the White House [ [link removed] ]—the first time a sitting president has received Pakistan’s military chief without civilian leadership present. Meanwhile, Iran’s President Pezeshkian called Pakistan’s prime minister on March 28 [ [link removed] ], praising Islamabad’s “supportive role for peace.”
It doesn’t appear that any other nation could even make make both calls. This is especially important right now because the usual go-betweens—Oman and Qatar—are under Iranian missile fire.
Pakistan also has plenty of motivation. It depends on the Strait of Hormuz for most of its oil imports. It also has a close relationship and mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia [ [link removed] ] that could drag it into the war. But perhaps most importantly for the Pakistani leadership, it faces a restive domestic population. After Israel killed Khamenei, 22 people were killed in domestic protests [ [link removed] ] and a mob breached the American consulate in Karachi with the goal of burning it down.
Pakistan, a predominantly Sunni country, also has the second largest Shia population in the world after Iran. Keeping the peace internally is a regular domestic objective in this traditionally fractious country. Indeed, with so many religious, ethnic, and ideological divisions, I have long felt that the country’s military is the sole institution capable of preventing Pakistan’s disintegration. (Incidentally, I was a member of the Board of Directors of the US Pakistan Business Council in 2007 when General Pervez Musharraf was ousted as head of the country; many of us who were watching the country closely were very worried about civilian leadership competing with the military to run the country…)
But there are also the personal motivations of Pakistan’s current Prime Minister, Shebaz Sharif. He is very eager to be seen as relevant on the global stage. After decades of pursuit for political success while languishing in his brother’s shadow, he finally has risen to the top and wants to make the most of it. He is also desperate to distract from Pakistan’s domestic problems, which includes a lackluster economy and the persecution of his primary political opponent, Imran Khan. Sharif has also been aggressive courting Trump; he even nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Helping to end the war would place him at the center of world events…while likely also earning him Trump’s recognition.
There’s also the extra bonus of putting India “on its backfoot,” as they say in Islamabad. India [ [link removed] ] is Pakistan’s nemesis and Islamabad sees everything through the prism of potential conflict with its nuclear neighbor. It will seize any opportunity to gain an advantage. Modi visited Israel right before the strikes began, which torpedoed India’s claim to neutrality and has sidelined the Hindu nation ever since. Foreign Policy called it “a humiliating failure for Modi.” [ [link removed] ] See the video below for Pakistani interpretation of India’s Israel connection.
If Pakistan actually brokers a deal, bringing it closer to the U.S., gaining prestige among Middle-Eastern countries, and making it a player on the world stage, the geopolitical implications for South Asia are enormous. It is already the only Muslim country with nukes (holder of the so-called “Islamic Bomb”) and its ascent to a diplomatic powerhouse would enhance its stature.
While it’s unclear if the country can broker peace, Pakistan is already seeing its status rise. On March 29, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey all flew to Islamabad [ [link removed] ]. That’s three of the Middle East’s biggest armies, financial heft, and diplomatic clout all calling on a country that is more closely associated with instability than statesmanship. They produced a five-point peace plan calling for an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of Hormuz. Then Pakistan’s foreign minister flew to Beijing, where China endorsed the effort [ [link removed] ] and issued a joint statement. Further, according to Reuters [ [link removed] ], Israel removed Iran’s foreign minister and parliament speaker from its assassination target list—supposedly at Pakistan’s request.
In 1971, Pakistan was smaller, weaker and in the middle of its own crisis, fighting a civil war in what’s now Bangladesh. It still somehow managed to play an outsized role in world affairs, arranging Kissinger’s flight to Beijing. Today’s Pakistan is similarly fragile, similarly improbable, and similarly positioned at the one intersection that matters.
As has often been said, history may not repeat itself, but often does rhyme.
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. He’s currently the Chairman and CEO of Goodwell Foods, a manufacturer of private label frozen pizza. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of three books, The Making of a Generalist: An Independent Thinker Finds Unconventional Success in an Uncertain World [ [link removed] ], Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence [ [link removed] ] and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst [ [link removed] ]. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.
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