Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Aug. 6, 2020

Testing Delays Have Us Flying Blind
Plus, deal hopes fade

 

A testing site in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo)

First Response

"If there wasn't as much testing, there wouldn't be as many
cases," Donald Trump is fond of saying. And liberals are fond of
laughing at him for saying that. But that's exactly what's been
happening in recent days, for a variety of reasons.

The testing situation has been one of more or less consistent growth

since at least late April, but throughout August it has fallen.
Considering that mandatory tests for hospitals and some schools and
special circumstances like the NBA bubble are ongoing, this is even
worse, as it means the general population testing is down even more
sharply. Part of the problem is Hurricane Isaias, which has hampered
normal functioning. But it appears to be mainly a consequence of testing
delays , which have
become so widespread that many who might have been tested previously
have given up. CVS claims the backlog is abating
,
but that doesn't square with the results we're seeing.

It can now take weeks to get test results, at which point they become
not terribly useful
.
It can take almost as long to get a testing appointment in some parts of
the country. If test results today gives you a snapshot of one
population from yesterday and another from five days ago and another
from two weeks ago, how can you construct a meaningful curve that tells
you where case counts are now? How can you do contact tracing and expect
people to remember who they interacted with two weeks ago? Just a few
days of delay makes testing ineffective.

Plus, it asks a lot to have those tested and awaiting results to isolate
fully until they find out whether they have the virus. Plenty of people
can't work from home, so this isn't even an option.

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The testing backlog appears to be a function of two things. One is
consolidation among testing labs, where if you don't have a public
university or large hospital lab nearby, most everything gets farmed out
to Quest and LabCorp, who are at the breaking point. (That Quest is busy
acquiring smaller labs

even now tells you the problem.) The second is continued problems with
the supply chain

for key elements of the dominant testing kits, like reagents and these
little pipette tips used in the process.

Both of these outcomes are unforgivable. One is the result of decades of
economic concentration (do you know I have a book on sale
about
this?), while the other shouldn't still be happening months into the
crisis. That we cannot onshore simple materials for production speaks to
the hollowing out of our industrial base. And the long supply chains
remain pretty clogged, even though globalization fans are trying to tout
a victory.

Some experts have decided that tests should be rationed
,
with those at low risk prohibited from getting one. That seems like a
pretty bad idea if you want to have a consistent picture of community
spread. The better option is to use cheaper tests, which might not be as
accurate but can deliver the results quickly. Since more accurate tests
lose their importance amid delays, the benefits of speed may matter
more. There's also the option of pooled testing, which can reduce the
backlog and test 20 samples at once, and if all are negative, there's
no need to go back and sample individually.

A Lancet study

found that same-day tests could prevent around 80 percent of all
transmissions, if the positive subjects isolate. Tests that take five
days to respond only prevent five percent. False positives isolating
isn't necessarily a problem for public health, though false negatives
are. Still, the good probably outweighs the bad here.

In the meantime, we're getting a terribly false picture. I've said
all along that we're feeling around with this virus like the blind man
and the elephant. The testing regime right now is making us more blind
and giving us less of the elephant to touch. It's fixable, but like
everything right now, it's a challenge.

Support Independent, Fact-Checked Journalism

Odds and Sods

I was on the Majority Report with Sam Seder talking about the Big Tech
hearings and antitrust. Watch here
.

Lee Fang had me on The Intercept's SYSTEM UPDATE
to talk
about the economic crisis and the unbalanced response. Watch here
.

The Columbia Journalism Review interviewed a bunch of people
,
including me, about the tech hearings. You can check that out here
.

I wrote today

about a resurgent Wall Street innovation since the pandemic: the SPAC,
which is a legal end-run around the traditional IPO process for taking a
company public. There are dangers here for small investors. Read here
.

This Michael Massing piece

about "pandemic journals" from self-absorbed writers is first-rate.

You can read all of our coronavirus coverage at prospect.org/coronavirus
. And reach out via email with tips,
comments, and perspectives.

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I'm Going With No Deal

It's always darkest before the dawn, I guess. But when you use the
phrase "trillions of dollars apart
"
it's usually not a sign that a deal is imminent, and such is the case
with the coronavirus relief package. The Friday deadline floated
yesterday was not a sign of optimism but a threat. Mark Meadows told
Senate Republicans

negotiations would break after that deadline, and Chuck Schumer
confronted him with that in
negotiations and he lied about it. So it's going real well.

A little over 29 million people

were still receiving benefits as of the first week without the
boost-the delay means that states, if there's ever an agreement,
will have to switch back on the new benefits, and that could take weeks,
as bills come due. Pelosi beat sweeteners

aside, we're in this mess because the individual side of the CARES Act
was temporary and the corporate side was not, while the state and local
aid was practically non-existent. If Pelosi is so all-powerful, she's
also responsible for the dire state of affairs.

Meanwhile, hazard pay for essential workers, a key part of the Heroes
Act, has been completely forgotten. But those workers won't go away
empty-handed: Indiana Senator Mike Braun (R) is circulating a resolution
"expressing support for essential employees with disabilities or who
are blind." Here's that critical language
, which I'm
told you cannot exchange to cover a rent payment.

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

133
.
And speaking of bad legislation, a bunch of Democrats submitted a bill

to increase diversity on the commission, with four new slots reserved
for "Black, Latinx, Pacific Islander or Native Americans." Aside
from erasing the identity of commission member Bharat Ramamurti (they
had to lose the word "Asian" from diversity to do it), um...
there's not even a chair! Maybe legislate that first?

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* That school reopening in Georgia is much worse than the viral photo

showed. (Buzzfeed)

* If you add in non-wage benefits
,
the unemployment enhancement is not a wild overpayment, actually.
(HuffPost)

* The reckoning in commercial real estate could ultimately be positive
by lowering sky-high rents
,
but it's creating a lot of stranded assets
.
(Axios; Bloomberg)

* People keep using PPP funds to buy Lamborghinis
.
(New York Times)

* Some dead people may get stimulus checks

after all, as it's standard practice. (Politico)

* Los Angeles mayor threatens to cut power

to house parties. (Los Angeles Times)

* Big Ten players

join others in making demands on returning to the field during the
pandemic. This is a good moment for collective power. (Players Tribune)

* Life under quarantine: Kraft unveils "Mac and Cheese for breakfast
."
(Boing Boing)

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