Also: China’s Peak Economy and Computer Science Degrees’ Payoff

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Edited by Brady Africk and Carter Hutchinson

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine US and Israeli airstrikes in Iran, China’s economic future, and the value of a computer science degree.

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1. The Top Targets in Iran ([link removed] )

01 CTP ([link removed] )

Topline: During Operation Epic Fury, US and Israeli forces have used airstrikes to severely degrade Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. These strikes have limited Iran’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks in the region, write ([link removed] ) researchers at AEI’s Critical Threats Project.

Military and Internal Security Targets: The Critical Threats Project has recorded airstrikes targeting 10 of Iran’s 17 air force tactical air bases and three of Iran’s six ground forces aviation bases since February 28. The combined US and Israeli forces have also continued to target defense industrial sites, like Shahed Aviation Industries’ production facility, and internal security institutions, like the Fourth Tehran Municipality Karbala Basij Resistance Regional Base.

Targeting Censorship and Internet Access: The combined force also struck Sahab Pardaz, a company sanctioned by the US in 2022. Since 2016, Sahab Pardaz has worked with Iran’s Information and Communications Technology Ministry to create ([link removed] ) “a system of cultural and social protection.” The strike occurred after the 10th consecutive day of Iran’s nationwide internet shutdown.

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2. China’s Peaking Problems ([link removed] )

02 Scissors ([link removed] )

Topline: China’s population will continue to decline from its recent peak in 2020, likely falling to 1.26 billion in 2050—which is less than the country’s population in 2000. This demographic slide and other factors paint a weaker picture of China’s economic future than is widely acknowledged, argues ([link removed] ) AEI’s Derek Scissors. Without significant policy changes, China’s economy will continue to gradually fade.

Solutions to Stagnation: China’s economy is unlikely to surpass the 4 percent nominal GDP growth of 2025 if policies are not changed in 2026. Currently, President Xi Jinping seems to favor production and technology over consumption and prosperity. If China decides to take action to reverse its economic decline, Scissors outlines three options: reform to abandon state direction and excess output, intensified stimulus, and reflation of property.

Technology and Demography: The AI industry is unlikely to transform China’s economy. China’s AI spending is less intense than the United States’, and China falls behind in advanced computing. In the future, technological upgrades will probably slow as the population’s median age accelerates in the 2030s, since aging populations are less likely to innovate.

"Property reflation could help for a time, but using the present level of directly measured income and powerful reasons for poor growth, the ‘Chinese century’ is very unlikely to ever see a rich China."

—Derek Scissors ([link removed] )

More on China's Economy
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3. Are Computer Science Degrees Still Valuable? ([link removed] )

03 Cooper-1 ([link removed] )

Topline: Computer science is the third-most-popular college major after nursing and psychology, but concerns about AI and layoffs in the technology sector have recently slowed the major’s growth. In 2025, the number of computer science majors dropped by 8 percent. Nonetheless, AEI’s Preston Cooper highlights ([link removed] ) how a computer science degree remains a good investment compared with alternative courses of study.

Computer Science Hiring: In 2024, 7.2 percent of recent graduates who majored in computer science were unemployed, compared with the overall unemployment rate of 4.5 percent for all early-career graduates. Technology-sector layoffs and AI’s ability to independently execute the work of young programmers may contribute to the unemployment rate, but Cooper explains that the explosion in the number of new computer science degree-holders might make the supply outweigh employers’ demand. Unemployment is on the rise for all college graduates, not just computer science majors.

Salary Success: While computer science graduates have a higher unemployment rate, their starting salary is much higher than average. In 2024, among computer science majors who did find employment, the median salary was $90,000, while the median salary for all recent graduates that year was $55,000. Other college majors have lower unemployment rates, but they also have lower salaries. For instance, the unemployment rate for education majors is just 1.5 percent, but those early-career graduates earn just $45,000 on average.

"Equally important to consider is the opportunity cost—the expected outcomes of your second-choice major. Different students will come to different conclusions, depending on their own circumstances and risk tolerance."

—Preston Cooper ([link removed] )

More on College Majors
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Dive into More Data

04 Housing Center ([link removed] )

States with New Housing Supply Legislation ([link removed] )

More on Housing
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05 Lachman ([link removed] )

US Debt over Time ([link removed] )

More on the US Economy
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Special thanks to Hannah Bowen, Drew Kirkpatrick, and Rosalie Blacklock!

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