Also: Trump’s New Tariffs & Americans’ Retirement Accounts ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­

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Expert analysis made easy. Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Edited by Brady Africk and Lexi Baker

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine US operations in Iran, Trump’s latest tariffs, and the president’s new retirement accounts.

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1. What’s Next in Iran ([link removed] )

pletka-thiessen_03.05 ([link removed] )

Topline: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with top Iranian officials, was killed Saturday by joint US-Israeli strikes. AEI’s Danielle Pletka and Marc A. Thiessen, with podcast guest David Albright, warn ([link removed] ) that the key to long-term success is securing Iran’s remaining nuclear materials.

What Remains: During the 12-day war in June 2025, the US and Israel destroyed or rendered inoperable thousands of Iran’s centrifuges—critical components of its nuclear production capability—effectively destroying the nuclear program. Since then, Iran has sought to reconstitute elements of its nuclear weapons effort, including by preserving stocks of highly enriched uranium.

Next Steps: In addition to targeting ([link removed] ) leadership, the US and Israeli operation has targeted many of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps command centers, missile launch sites, and air defense systems. Top US officials say operations could continue for weeks.

“We do not want to maintain two carrier battle groups in the Middle East in order to ensure that whoever takes over Iran next is going to behave properly. We want the Iranian people to rise up and choose exactly who should lead them. And that leader must be a 180 degree opposite of the current regime.”

—Danielle Pletka ([link removed] )

More on Iran
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2. Trump’s Problematic Plans for New Tariffs ([link removed] )

veuger_03.05-1 ([link removed] )

Topline: Hours after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, the administration announced a new 10 percent tariff on imports worldwide. AEI’s Stan Veuger and Clark Packard argue ([link removed] ) that the legal basis for the new tariffs—Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974—is just as vulnerable.

What Is Section 122? Section 122 provides the president with tariff authority in a narrow set of circumstances, including for “large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits.” Veuger and Packard point out that the administration is conflating the United States’ $900 billion 2025 trade deficit with a balance-of-payments deficit—which the US does currently run but which does not constitute a problem.

The Clock Is Ticking: The measures invoked by Section 122 will expire after 150 days, unless Congress extends them. Until then, these tariffs will impose roughly $30 billion ([link removed] ) in additional taxes on US businesses. Meanwhile, the administration owes $175 billion in refunds from the tariffs struck down by SCOTUS.

“When affected parties challenge the Section 122 tariffs in the coming days, the courts should reach the same conclusion as they did with the IEEPA tariffs, but more promptly. That would force the president to rely on more procedurally demanding and less flexible instruments, as he should. The taxing power belongs to Congress.”

—Stan Veuger ([link removed] ) and Clark Packard

More on Tariffs
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3. How America Is Rethinking Retirement ([link removed] )

warshawsky_03.05 ([link removed] )

Topline: In his recent State of the Union address, President Trump announced that beginning in 2027, Americans without access to employer-matched 401(k) plans would receive federal matching contributions of up to $1,000. AEI’s Mark J. Warshawsky examines ([link removed] ) how the proposal might work in practice, including the risks of low participation and distorted incentives.

Large and Widespread: While universal participation is unlikely, retirement accounts in the US are large and widespread. More than 60 percent of Americans age 45 to 54 have retirement accounts with average balances exceeding $300,000, according to a 2022 survey by the Federal Reserve Board.

Big Questions: It is unclear whether President Trump’s recent statement reflects a new proposal requiring legislation or depends on existing laws. If the former, Warshawsky warns, a similar Obama-era investment account program saw only 30,000 accounts opened. Conversely, large employers may determine it is in their best interest to discontinue their own plans, forcing employees to gain coverage from the federal government.

“Although the President says repeatedly that he ‘will always protect Social Security and Medicare’ both programs are projected to run out of funds to pay full benefits in about six years, at which point Social Security benefits would be cut by up to 28 percent. Yet there is no talk about what will [be] done at that point without a massive tax increase or ever larger federal borrowing.”

—Mark J. Warshawsky ([link removed] )

More on Retirement Accounts
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Dive into More Data

kosar_03.05 ([link removed] )

Congress Re-Funds the Education Department ([link removed] )

More on the Education Department
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pielke_03.05 ([link removed] )

The Future of American Energy Consumption ([link removed] )

More on Energy
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Special thanks to Hannah Bowen, Drew Kirkpatrick, and Rosalie Blacklock!

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