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Unleash Prosperity Hotline Issue #1449

02/11/2026
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1) Private Hiring Up, Government Hiring Down

The January jobs report blew away expectations with nonfarm payrolls rising 130,000 for the month and employment surging a whopping 528,000. Admittedly, it can be tricky to draw conclusions from any January report because there are so many revisions and adjustments to the data, but things still look pretty good for workers as we dig through the numbers.
A bar graph with the title, "month over month change, thousands, seasonally adjusted."

The monster downward revision in the annual benchmark was the largest on record at -898,000. But that’s for the March 2025 Benchmark. Most of that annual revision covers Biden’s last year in office and only the first two months of Trump’s second term.

But the really big jobs story has been the reorientation of the labor market to private sector jobs and the subtraction of government jobs. Here is a comparison of the January 2025 number versus January 2026

The Great Jobs Reset
A bar graph with the title, month-over-month change in nonfarm payroll, thousands, seasonally adjusted."

Our UP economist, EJ Antoni, reports that federal employment is now lower than at any time since 1966, a stat that the White House picked up and blasted out. Keep draining the swamp, Mr. President.
A line chart titled, "Federal employment is at its lowest level since 1966."
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2) We've Cut Air Pollution by 70%

We got some pushback from readers about our item in Tuesday's HOTLINE praising President Trump's repeal of regulations on CO2 emissions. Some questioned our claim that U.S. air pollution levels have fallen dramatically. (We like pushback, by the way. Keep it coming. It keeps us honest.)

Many people - especially the younger generation - believe that air pollution now is WORSE than it was in the past. Here are the official stats since 1980: on average, dangerous pollutants such as carbon monoxide, lead, sulfur, and nitrogen have plummeted by around 70%.
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The chart below shows that the reduction in pollution is especially remarkable given the growth of population and GDP. No other industrialized country comes close to the pollution reduction of the U.S.

Economic Output Up, Pollution Down
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3) The Europeans Are Officially Hopeless
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We're not sure which would be worse: if this latest headline is just another virtue-signaling grand gesture by EU members, or if they really are committed to this loony course to impoverish their own people.

The only significant impact of Europe's climate change religion is that the continent continues to deindustrialize.

But wait! This new self-righteous edict comes with "several flexibilities" in the 2040 Target, such as "conducting reviews which could result in changes to the target in the future..."

Uh huh. We will offer 10-to-1 odds that Europe comes nowhere near the target.
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4) Moore on Housing Affordability

On Tuesday, UP co-founder Stephen Moore testified before Congress alongside SharkTank host Kevin O’Leary on housing affordability, highlighting research and policy recommendations familiar to HOTLINE readers. He reiterated his argument made in the WSJ with Jeff Yass for inflation-indexing homes for capital gains tax purposes. This would incentivize older baby boomers to sell their homes.

His written testimony is available here ([link removed]) .

And the video is here:
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We hope they were listening carefully!
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5) In California the Teachers Won't Teach

Mayor Dan Lurie and Rep. Nancy Pelosi begged the union not to, but for the first time in nearly 50 years, teachers in San Francisco have gone on strike. The California Teachers Association isn't much concerned about the children, so some 6,000 teachers are striking for more pay and benefits.
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It's all like a rolling blackout. San Diego teachers will strike for one day this month, and United Teachers Los Angeles authorized a strike last month. Two dozen other districts are at an impasse over contracts.

Where do the unions think the money is going to come from to pay for higher salaries and benefits? Rich people. According to Politico, "Labor groups are working to extend the Proposition 55 millionaire's tax, which helps fund schools, and they're connecting the push to the strikes."

But the millionaires and billionaires are leaving California (which ALREADY has the highest income tax rate). The golden geese have already left, so where will the money come from?
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There's no doubt many young teachers deserve a raise, but their union contracts prohibit them being paid on the basis of merit. Instead much of the money flows to six-figure benefit packages and well-paid administrators.

A state-mandated neutral third party reported last month that the SF union's demands for a 9% wage hike and more health benefits was excessive. The school district faces a $102 million deficit.

Schools used to be about education. Now, in many cities they are becoming war zones in which left-wing unions use students as hostages in their battle for more political power and money.
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6) Gentlemen Start Your Engines
A cartoon showing cars with license plates from New York, Illinois, California, and Minnesota on the highway following a sign that says "anywhere else."

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