Democrats have 44 GOP-held seats on their midterms chopping block

Growing more bullish on their chances in November’s midterm elections, Democrats on Tuesday added five more GOP-held seats to the list of districts the party is targeting—expanding the number of races Democrats say they are competing in to 44.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said it will now spend money to unseat GOP Reps. Jeff Crank in Colorado's 5th District, Brad Finstad in Minnesota's 1st District, Ryan Zinke in Montana's 1st District, John McGuire in Virginia's 5th District, and South Carolina's 1st District, which is being vacated by Rep. Nancy Mace, who is running for governor.

President Donald Trump carried those five new seats in 2024, some by as many as 13 percentage points. However, given their overperformance in special elections since Trump reentered the White House, Democrats now say these seats are competitive and that the party will make a run for them in the fall.

"The new offensive targets are all in districts that Trump won by 13% or less, and reflect a sustained, dramatically positive political environment where Democrats are overperforming in all special elections since Trump was inaugurated, including in congressional special elections by more than 17%," the DCCC said in a news release.

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Just last week, Democrats sent shockwaves through Texas when they flipped a state Senate district that Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024. 

That follows other special-election overperformances in Tennessee and Virginia that have Republicans in full-on crisis mode.

Democrats’ overperformances come as Trump’s popularity plummets. Since Jan. 1, his job approval rating has fallen from 40% down to 38%, according to FiftyPlusOne’s polling average. Since the start of the year, Trump’s immigration goons have killed two U.S. citizens and have brutalized many more as they carry out their deportation agenda in Minnesota. 

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In fact, a number of GOP lawmakers in otherwise safe Republican districts have since announced their retirements—a sign they know they will be returning in 2025 in the minority.

While the new Democratic targets will be heavy lifts, there are signs the ground is shifting in their favor.

Democrat Jake Johnson, who is running to oust Finstad in Minnesota's 1st District, released an internal poll on Monday showing him down just 3 points, with Finstad at 44% and Johnson at 41%. That's an eye-popping result in a seat Trump carried by 12 points in 2024, according to The Downballot, and that Finstad won by 17.

And in November, Democrat Jessica Killin released an internal poll showing her also down just 3 points to Crank in Colorado's 5th, which Trump won by 9 points and Crank carried by 14 points in 2024.

“Democrats are on offense, and our map reflects the fact that everyday Americans are tired of Republicans’ broken promises and ready for change in Congress,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a news release.

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