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Sunday Edition

February 8, 2026

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It’s Super Bowl Sunday. We spent the whole week interviewing the biggest names in sports on our set at “Radio Row” in San Francisco, and three hot-button topics in particular kept coming up: Bill Belichick; Steve Tisch; and an 18th game. From Eli Manning to Rob Gronkowski, Chris “Mad Dog” Russo to Stephen A. Smith, read their comments here [[link removed]] and watch the videos here [[link removed]].

Alongside today’s game, we’re also watching the prediction-market landscape, which has changed dramatically since last year and has made a major footprint in sports. Super Bowl LX features hundreds of millions of dollars being traded across a staggering number of markets on a litany of platforms—despite not yet having the NFL’s blessing.

— Dan Roberts [[link removed]] and Ben Horney [[link removed]]

Welcome to the Prediction-Market Super Bowl

Steven Bisig-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

If you think you’ve been hearing more about prediction-market platforms this week, it’s not your imagination—companies are trying to capitalize on the biggest sports-betting day of the year [[link removed]].

Leading up to Super Bowl LX between the Seahawks and Patriots, Polymarket and Kalshi unveiled dueling “free market” promotions—Kalshi paid for $50 worth of groceries [[link removed]] per person who showed up at a grocery store on Third Avenue in New York City on Tuesday, and Polymarket announced a $1 million donation to Food Bank For New York City, while also unveiling plans for a five-day pop-up store [[link removed]] that will launch Feb. 12 and offer free groceries.

Meanwhile, Crypto.com launched a new platform that will allow margin trading, and Robinhood rolled out hundreds of Super Bowl markets.

One year ago, Polymarket was still prohibited in the U.S., Kalshi had just launched its first sports event contracts [[link removed]], DraftKings and FanDuel didn’t have prediction-market platforms, and companies including Robinhood and Crypto.com were primarily focused on traditional stock trading.

A year later, everything has changed.

Prediction-market mania came fast and fierce in 2025 [[link removed]]. Polymarket and Kalshi raised billions of dollars; DraftKings and FanDuel launched their own platforms; and Robinhood, Crypto.com, and others introduced a slew of sports event contracts. Even President Donald Trump’s Truth Social is planning a prediction-market platform [[link removed]]—although no date has been set for its launch.

The legality of sports event contracts across the U.S. is still an open question. The platforms argue there is a distinction between what they offer and traditional sports betting, and for now they fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of a federal regulator called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, whose new chair has signaled support [[link removed]] for prediction markets.

Numerous lawsuits [[link removed]] are winding through the court system, and state and federal lawmakers as well as officials have begun to try to get a handle on the industry’s growth—from insider trading concerns [[link removed]] to the general idea that sports event contracts are sports betting “ masquerading [[link removed]]” as something else.

The NFL has not embraced prediction markets, and in fact has expressed concern [[link removed]] about a lack of safeguards—although NFL EVP Jeff Miller told Front Office Sports on Wednesday at Radio Row that the league may eventually come around [[link removed]]. The league is not allowing prediction-market Super Bowl commercials [[link removed]] this year.

But it can’t stop platforms from offering sports event contracts, although the platforms mostly call the Super Bowl the “big game” or the “ pro football championship [[link removed]]” in order to avoid any legal headaches.

Hundreds of Super Bowl–related contracts are available across various platforms—from who will win the game, to which artists will perform with Bad Bunny during the halftime show, and what announcers will say during the broadcast. Total trading volume is deep into the hundreds of millions of dollars, and may well have surpassed $1 billion. (All data is as of Saturday morning.)

Kalshi

More than $180 million has been put on just the market for who will win [[link removed]] this year’s Super Bowl—more than five times the total trading volume last year (69% of traders view Seattle as the favorite).

Kalshi has numerous other markets, from the spread to props and parlays (which it calls combos) and more. A quarterback is seen as the most likely position to win MVP [[link removed]], although 9% of traders have put money on it being a defense or special teams player (roughly $433,000 has been put on that market). Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has the best chance of being the player who wins MVP [[link removed]]—with more than $12.8 million put on that market.

More than $9.3 million has been put on which brands will advertise [[link removed]]. Him & Hers, T-Mobile, and Pepsi are viewed as almost guaranteed with 98% chances for all.

Almost $3.5 million has been put on which celebrities will attend the game [[link removed]], with Tom Brady, Gavin Newsom, and Mark Wahlberg seen among the most likely.

When it comes to mention markets—which allow users to bet on what will be said during the broadcast—safety, MVP, and Lombardi are among the most predicted [[link removed]], and more than $1.5 million in total is being traded.

Polymarket

Polymarket’s U.S. relaunch hasn’t exactly gone off without a hitch, but it’s still positioned to be a potential disruptor [[link removed]] in the market. Its U.S. app featured no NFL markets until Thursday morning, when one—on which team will win the game—appeared. But its international site has many options.

More than $699 million has been placed on who will win [[link removed]], with the Seahawks significantly favored. Roughly $912,000 has been put on which song Bad Bunny will open with ( “Tití Me Preguntó” [[link removed]] is the overwhelming favorite).

Close to $66,200 has been placed on whether Bad Bunny will say “Fuck ICE” [[link removed]] during the halftime show; it’s currently at 7% and has been trending down since peaking at 24% on Jan. 23.

Polymarket users say there’s only a 17% chance Bad Bunny will wear a dress or skirt [[link removed]] during the halftime show (around $37,000 has been placed on that market).

State Farm, Toyota, and Salesforce are among the most likely candidates to have a Super Bowl ad [[link removed]], and more than $440,000 has been put on that market.

More than $2.8 million has been put on who will win MVP [[link removed]], with Darnold seen as most likely followed by Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

Robinhood

Last year, Robinhood was forced to pull back its planned Super Bowl event contracts [[link removed]] not long before the game, after receiving a request to do so from the CFTC.

This year, it has a large slate of offerings [[link removed]], including who will win the game, first-quarter and first-half winner, and which songs will be played at halftime. In total, roughly 115 million contracts have been traded [[link removed]] relating to who will win the Super Bowl, player props, and “combos.” More than 8.4 million contracts have been placed on who will win MVP [[link removed]]; Robinhood users also think Darnold is most likely to earn that honor.

Robinhood also has contracts related to the halftime show, including which song Bad Bunny will open with [[link removed]], as well as which brands will advertise [[link removed]].

There is, of course, more: DraftKings, FanDuel, Crypto.com, and Fanatics are all also angling for lots of action on sports event contracts during the Super Bowl. On Radio Row, Fanatics betting and gaming CEO Matt King told FOS [[link removed]] that the company is not worried about critics: “We’re just getting started.” Read about what’s happening on those platforms [[link removed]].

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FOS at the Super Bowl 3 Big Topics From Super Bowl Week: Belichick, Tisch, 18th Game [[link removed]]by Daniel Roberts [[link removed]]Three hot-button topics kept coming up: Belichick, Tisch, and an 18th game. Eli Manning: Why I Passed On Buying Stake in Giants [[link removed]]by David Rumsey [[link removed]]Manning told FOS he explored investing in his former team. Charles Woodson Chooses His Liquor Brand Over Browns Owner Stake [[link removed]]by Ryan Glasspiegel [[link removed]]“I thought I was going to be a proud owner of the Browns.” Falcons CEO: Matt Ryan Dual Role With CBS ‘Was Not on the Table’ [[link removed]]by Eric Fisher [[link removed]]Arthur Blank “didn’t want a consultant,” Falcons exec Greg Beadles told FOS. Scott Hanson: ‘They Didn’t Consult Me’ on Hated NFL RedZone Ads [[link removed]]by Michael McCarthy [[link removed]]The NFL is a “for-profit” business, Hanson noted. Events [[link removed]] Video [[link removed]] Games [[link removed]] Show [[link removed]] Shop [[link removed]] Written by Ben Horney [[link removed]] Edited by Lisa Scherzer [[link removed]], Catherine Chen [[link removed]]

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