February 7, 2026

It is easy to forget that Donald Trump’s first plan to rig the 2026 election involved midcycle redistricting. Last summer, he succeeded in convincing Texas Republicans to abandon their existing gerrymandered map in favor of a new one drawn by operatives in Washington, D.C. He pressured Republicans in Missouri and North Carolina to follow suit.

Now, months later, Trump’s plan appears to be failing. Rather than unilaterally disarming, Democrats fought back — enacting a new map in California that matches, if not exceeds, the seat gains Trump secured in Texas.

And it doesn't end there. Through litigation, Democrats are poised to gain additional seats in Utah and New York. This week, Democrats in Virginia unveiled a new map they plan to pursue via ballot measure this spring. If successful, it would net Democrats four additional seats. The Maryland Legislature may also add another seat to the Democratic column.

Republicans’ only remaining clear opportunity to gain seats is in Florida, notwithstanding a state constitutional provision barring partisan map drawing. Gov. Ron DeSantis has said he will call a special session this spring to add additional GOP seats.

When all the dust settles, the math tells the story: Democrats are likely to equal or exceed Republican gains resulting from the midcycle redistricting Trump believed would guarantee GOP control of Congress.

Yes, Democrats fought back. But equally important, many Republican-controlled states rejected Trump’s demands. Indiana, Kansas and New Hampshire are just a few of the states that refused to redistrict.

There is also an increasing likelihood that Republican gerrymanders may be stretched too thin. When Texas enacted its new map, I was skeptical that it would backfire. I assumed Republicans had access to sophisticated modeling that would ensure the map could withstand a blue wave.

However, as special election results continue to flood in, I am reconsidering. A recent state Senate election — in which a district Trump carried by 17 points elected a Democrat by 14 points — has renewed my optimism. No map, no matter how carefully constructed, can withstand a 31-point swing.

The biggest wild card for 2026, however, is outside the control of both Trump and Democrats. The Supreme Court is poised to decide a critical case that could overturn or severely limit the Voting Rights Act.

The worst outcome would allow Republican-controlled legislatures in the South to draw new maps targeting Black representation in Congress. By some estimates, this could net Republicans more than a dozen additional seats.

In addition to the substance, the timing of the Court’s decision remains unclear. A ruling this month might allow some legislatures to redraw maps in time for 2026, but with each passing day, that becomes less practical for the midterm elections.

For now, Trump is left to stew over the fact that his unpopularity is dragging down Republican chances of retaining control of Congress, and that his plan to rig the results appears to have failed. But if there is one thing we know about Trump, it is that he never gives up on subverting the will of the electorate.

In recent weeks, Trump has grown more erratic and visibly more desperate in his attacks on free and fair elections. He has suggested that Republicans take over elections in blue areas. He has watched approvingly as his Department of Justice seized ballots from Fulton County, Georgia. He has even suggested a preference for canceling elections altogether.

Trump will only grow worse, and his rhetoric more dangerous, from here. Recall that in 2020 he began by criticizing mail-in ballots ahead of the election. As Election Day approached, his language became increasingly unhinged and authoritarian.

When it became clear he had lost, he launched a barrage of frivolous legal actions. When those failed, he instigated a violent attack on the Capitol.

His recent redistricting scheme was the first step in his latest anti-voting campaign. It will not be his last.

Those of us in the pro-democracy movement cannot declare victory simply because we prevented the worst outcome in redistricting. We cannot assume the threat to free and fair elections has subsided.

The next nine months will be a long fight — in court and in the public square — to defend democracy. But we can draw inspiration from our early victories while remaining clear-eyed about the challenges ahead.

Now, here's a little joy from our pawtners in the opposition movement.