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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY SEASON KICKS OFF WITH AN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT
EARTHQUAKE  
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Steve Kornacki
February 6, 2026

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_ New Jersey’s special House primary is too close to call, but the
results still sent a message about what forces are rising and falling
in the Democratic Party. _

Analilia Mejia, progressive favorite, is leading in New Jersey
Democratic primary to fill seat vacated by Mikie Sherrill,

 

There’s no official winner yet, but the Democratic primary for the
special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District
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already amounts to a political earthquake in the state.

In an improbable twist that not long ago might have been altogether
impossible, a progressive activist and organizer backed by Sen. Bernie
Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., leads the
vote count
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Analilia Mejia is slightly ahead of former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who
represented the neighboring 7th District for two terms and relocated
in an effort to relaunch his political career.

Yes, it’s hardly unheard of in this political moment for a left-wing
insurgent like Mejia to score an upset in a Democratic contest. But
what makes her potential victory so remarkable is _where_ it may be
happening, if she holds her lead in this too-close-to-call race.

This is New Jersey, the state where Democratic machine politics have
lived on well into the 21st century. Candidacies like Mejia’s —
backed by none of the official Democratic county organizations in the
district, instead relying on grassroots energy — have long been
quixotic exercises.

But the state’s Democratic Party has been thrown into upheaval by a
series of events the past few years. A quick review of those cascading
circumstances puts Mejia’s campaign in key context. And a campaign
like this finding purchase in a place like this sends a broader
message about what animates Democratic voters today. 

To understand how we got here, rewind to the indictment and ultimate
corruption conviction of Sen. Robert Menendez, a product of the Hudson
County machine who owed his seat to the kind of backroom deal-cutting
that was de rigueur among Garden State politicos.

Menendez’s 2023 indictment was, amazingly, his second brush with
federal law enforcement — he survived a corruption trial courtesy of
a hung jury five years earlier. Back then, in 2018, state Democratic
leaders rallied around Menendez after his trial and muscled him to
victory in a re-election race.

But resentment simmered among grassroots Democrats. This was the dawn
of the age of Trump, and the Democratic Party was awash in a new type
of energy, with young voters and professional-class suburbanites
suddenly animated by resistance politics. Menendez was not the kind of
candidate they had signed up to support.

The second Menendez indictment came just as he was gearing up to run
again in 2024. It was clear right away that the party would not
blindly embrace him this time and would look elsewhere — but to
whom?

For generations in New Jersey Democratic politics, this question would
then have been answered by power brokers, especially the leaders of
the biggest county Democratic parties. They commanded deep war chests,
mighty turnout armies, a roster of loyal local officials and —
crucially — “the line”: the very prominent, very
official-looking spot on the primary ballot reserved for the candidate
of the county party’s choosing. Candidates who did not receive the
line would be sentenced to a remote corner of the ballot somewhere
near the Central time zone.

This is how it had always worked. Phil Murphy, the Democrat who was
elected governor in 2017, had done it this way, locking down the
crucial counties and blocking out his better-known opponents —
essentially winning the primary a year before any actual votes were
cast. Murphy was in his second term when Menendez was once again
indicted, and he had a plan: His wife, Tammy Murphy, was interested in
her own political career, and this was a chance for her to run. Murphy
and his allies went to work putting all the usual puzzle pieces
together to lock down the Senate nomination for her.

But the plan was interrupted by then-Rep. Andy Kim, who had been
elected in the blue wave midterm of 2018 — on the same ballot as
Menendez, incidentally. Kim in his campaigns had tapped into that
resistance base and recognized that these were not voters who were
keen to sit back and let the county parties anoint Menendez’s
replacement. So, without having lined up a single major organizational
endorsement, he jumped in the race.

Then, he went to court. Rather than try to earn “the line,” he
decided he would try to get rid of it altogether. And he did. A
federal judge ruled in March 2024
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that the line violated “the integrity of the democratic process.”
Within weeks, Tammy Murphy was out of the race, and the field was
suddenly clear for Kim, who went on to easily win the Senate seat in
the fall.

Fueled by President Donald Trump’s return to office, the energy that
powered Kim continues to course through the culture of New Jersey’s
Democratic Party. The race that has unfolded in New Jersey’s 11th
District is powerful proof.

The district comprises three counties: Essex, Morris and Passaic.
Essex has the most votes. Traditionally, it has had one of the
strongest Democratic organizations in the state. In the new, post-line
world of New Jersey politics, the county parties can still make
endorsements, and Essex went with one of its own, county Board of
Commissioners member Brendan Gill.

Morris County, suburban and historically Republican, never had much of
a Democratic machine, but it nonetheless gave its backing to
Malinowski.

Passaic, a much smaller chunk of the district, threw up its hands and
backed two locals, county Board of Commissioners member John Bartlett
and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way.

None of the county parties backed Mejia. None seriously considered it.

But here is Mejia, with the decisive votes in this primary still left
to tally, somehow leading this race. And she owes that lead to, of all
places, Essex County, where she’s running well ahead of Malinowski
— and nearly doubling up Gill, the candidate of the Essex
organization.

This is not the sort of thing that used to happen in New Jersey
politics. And yet it seems to be happening more and more — and not
just in New Jersey, either.

_Steve Kornacki is the chief data analyst for NBC News. __X._
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