Two mega-cap AI stocks are down on narrative shocks—not broken
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[Morning Watchlist]

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THESE TWO BIG TECH GIANTS ARE ON SALE — TEMPORARILY

Some of the best opportunities show up when the market throws a
tantrum in the biggest, highest-quality names.

That’s because mega-caps don’t often get _cheap_… but they do
get _hit_—usually on a narrative shock: a headline miss, a guidance
nuance, a growth deceleration that fails to clear lofty expectations,
or a spending number that spooks short-term traders.

That’s exactly what we just saw in MICROSOFT and NVIDIA.

Both are foundational pillars of the AI buildout. Both are still
central to enterprise and cloud adoption. And both are dealing with
temporary issues that created a meaningful pullback.

The key, as always: DON’T CATCH FALLING KNIVES. Let the dust settle,
identify support, and then step in when the market shifts from
panic-selling to rational price discovery.

-------------------------

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COMPANY: MICROSOFT CORPORATION (SYM: MSFT)
THE “AI PLATFORM + CLOUD DISTRIBUTION” GIANT HIT BY AN
EXPECTATIONS RESET

Microsoft recently suffered a rare kind of selloff: the kind that
makes people forget, for a moment, that this is one of the best
businesses in the world.

After its quarterly report, Microsoft dropped sharply—one of its
worst sessions since 2020—and multiple outlets reported a market-cap
wipeout in the $357–$360 BILLION range. That’s not “normal
volatility.” That’s forced repositioning and sentiment shock.

WHAT SPOOKED INVESTORS?

It wasn’t that Microsoft suddenly became a bad company. It was that
Microsoft failed to beat _very high_ expectations on the specific
metric the market is currently obsessed with: AZURE GROWTH.

Several reports noted investor disappointment with Azure growth coming
in below “hopes” (or below the whisper number), alongside fears
that AI infrastructure spending is rising aggressively before
investors can clearly see near-term payoffs.

From the Financial Times’ reporting, investors were rattled not just
by cloud growth nuance, but by THE SCALE OF DATA-CENTER
SPENDING—spend that’s strategically rational for AI, but can
pressure margins and free cash flow optics in the short run.

WHY THIS COULD BE OVERKILL

When a company like Microsoft sells off that hard, it’s usually not
because the long-term thesis broke. It’s because:

*
positioning was crowded,

*
expectations were too high,

*
and the market demanded perfection.

And yet, analysts continue to argue Microsoft is one of the best
“pure plays” on AI adoption because it _owns distribution_:
Windows, Office, Azure, GitHub, enterprise relationships, and embedded
workflows.

Analyst conviction has remained broadly constructive even as targets
adjust. Deutsche Bank, for example, cut its target price to $575 while
maintaining a Buy, describing the quarter as solid but short of lofty
Azure expectations. Citi also reiterated Buy while trimming its target
to $660 (from $690) in late January.

HOW WE’D TRADE IT (DISCIPLINED APPROACH)

MSFT last traded around $411.93.

Rather than guessing the exact bottom:

*
STEP 1: Wait for stabilization (several sessions of higher lows or a
reversal candle).

*
STEP 2: Watch for a reclaim of a key moving average (often the 20-day
or 50-day).

*
STEP 3: Then target a first “mean reversion” move—an initial
$475 target is reasonable as a _first_ objective if momentum shifts
back positive.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT: management commentary on Azure capacity
constraints, AI monetization pace (Copilot and consumption), and
whether spending intensity begins to normalize as the buildout
matures.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

COMPANY: NVIDIA CORPORATION (SYM: NVDA)
THE “AI COMPUTE TOLL BOOTH” FACING HEADLINE NOISE, NOT DEMAND
COLLAPSE

Nvidia has been consolidating, and the market has been quick to pounce
on any headline that implies demand risk—even when the headline is
more about deal structure than fundamentals.

One recent overhang: a Wall Street Journal-reported story (picked up
widely) suggesting Nvidia’s proposed $100 BILLION
investment/partnership framework with OpenAI has stalled amid internal
doubts about the size, structure, and discipline of the arrangement.

That kind of story can pressure the stock because it triggers fear of:

*
tighter AI capex,

*
ecosystem “fractures,”

*
or demand shifting away from Nvidia.

But the more sober interpretation is: Nvidia is being selective about
capital allocation while still remaining at the center of the AI
compute stack. Even coverage of the same story emphasized the
investment was described as NON-BINDING, and that Nvidia and OpenAI
publicly reaffirmed the strategic importance of the relationship.

WHY NVDA REMAINS CORE TO AI

AI workloads still overwhelmingly run on Nvidia’s ecosystem
(hardware + CUDA + networking + software tooling). Competition exists,
but switching costs and deployment inertia are real.

And importantly: Wall Street analysts are still assigning large upside
based on sustained demand visibility.

RBC Capital initiated coverage with an Outperform and a $240 PRICE
TARGET, citing a backlog exceeding $500B and strong inferencing and
enterprise demand. Rothschild & Co Redburn raised its target to $268
while maintaining a Buy.

HOW WE’D TRADE IT

NVDA last traded around $179.10.

Given the volatility:

*
Look for SUPPORT TO HOLD (psychological round numbers often matter in
mega-caps).

*
Then look for CONFIRMATION (break back above a short-term downtrend
line, higher highs/higher lows, or a reclaim of a key moving average).

If the market shifts risk-on—especially if mega-cap earnings
stabilize sentiment—Nvidia is the kind of stock that can lead
rebounds because investors view it as “foundational AI exposure.”

-------------------------

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