From Morning Watchlist <[email protected]>
Subject The copper squeeze setup for 2026
Date February 5, 2026 2:06 PM
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AI data centers are colliding with tight inventories and project
delays. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
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-------------------------

COPPER STILL OFFERS SUBSTANTIAL UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY

Copper demand isn’t just “healthy” — it’s increasingly
structural. The metal sits at the center of three long-duration
megatrends that don’t care much about quarterly noise: grid
expansion, electrification (EVs and charging), and the buildout of
data centers that power artificial intelligence.

That’s why major miners are racing to increase copper exposure. The
logic is straightforward: copper is difficult to substitute at scale
in most high-voltage and high-reliability applications, and new supply
is slow, capital-intensive, and politically complicated to bring
online. The result is a market that can flip from “fine” to
“tight” quickly — and stay tight longer than most investors
expect.

-------------------------

THE DEMAND CURVE IS BENDING HIGHER

BHP estimates global copper demand will rise around 70% BY 2050,
reaching OVER 50 MILLION TONNES PER YEAR. That’s a massive step-up
for a market where bringing on new capacity often takes a decade (or
more) from discovery to meaningful production.

AI is a particularly powerful accelerator because it’s not just
“more servers.” It’s more power generation, more transmission,
more transformers, more cooling infrastructure — and copper threads
through all of it. BHP also estimates the copper used in data centers
globally will grow SIX-FOLD BY 2050, from roughly 0.5 MILLION TONNES
PER YEAR TO ~3 MILLION TONNES. Even if adoption comes in below the
most aggressive forecasts, the direction is clear: the baseline demand
trajectory is rising.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

THE SUPPLY SIDE IS THE REAL PROBLEM

On the supply side, the copper industry faces the same constraints
investors have seen across critical minerals:

*
DECLINING ORE GRADES (more rock moved for the same metal output)

*
LONG DEVELOPMENT TIMELINES and permitting risk

*
HIGHER CAPEX AND OPERATING COSTS

*
GEOPOLITICAL AND REGULATORY COMPLEXITY in key producing regions

BloombergNEF has warned that meeting net-zero-aligned raw material
demand implies enormous capital needs; BloombergNEF’s own press
materials highlight the scale of the investment gap across transition
metals. In short: even if copper prices rise, supply doesn’t respond
quickly — which is exactly how you get sustained bull phases.

MARKET STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMING THE STRESS

One of the most important tells in commodities isn’t a headline —
it’s TERM STRUCTURE.

Copper recently showed HISTORIC BACKWARDATION, where near-dated
contracts trade above longer-dated ones — typically signaling tight
prompt supply and urgent demand for deliverable metal. MINING.com
attributes this squeeze to rapidly falling inventories, tariff-related
trade flows, and stress in smelter economics. When backwardation
deepens, it often forces physical market participants to pay up
“right now,” which can keep prices supported even as sentiment
swings.

PRICE FORECASTS ARE MOVING UP — AND VOLATILITY IS THE ADMISSION
PRICE

You’re also seeing higher price targets from major firms as supply
risks stack up. For example, Barron’s reported that a Citi analyst
cited expectations for a copper rally toward $12,000/TON IN EARLY 2026
as part of a bullish view on the space.

That said, copper is still cyclical and sentiment-driven in the short
run. China demand headlines, dollar moves, growth scares, and
policy/tariff uncertainty can all produce sharp pullbacks. The key is
aligning the vehicle with your risk tolerance — and focusing on
structures that can survive the volatility.

-------------------------

_TrendLabs_

THIS IS THE EXACT MOMENT THE AI BOOM WILL END...
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I know claims like this usually sound exaggerated.

So let me be clear — this isn’t a prediction, a model, or a hunch.

It’s a market signal that has already marked the end of:
• The Roaring ’20s
• The dot-com boom
• The housing bubble
• The post-COVID recovery

It’s now flashing again — this time for AI.

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-------------------------

TWO PRACTICAL WAYS TO GAIN COPPER EXPOSURE

Below are two “clean” ways to position for copper upside — one
through a high-quality bellwether miner and one through diversified
exposure.

COMPANY: FREEPORT-MCMORAN (SYM: FCX)
THE LIQUID “BELLWETHER” MINER WITH MEANINGFUL COPPER TORQUE

Freeport-McMoRan is a classic way to express a bullish copper view
without needing to trade futures. When copper prices rise, miners can
experience operating leverage: revenue rises with the commodity, while
many costs don’t rise as quickly, potentially expanding margins and
free cash flow.

Fundamentally, Freeport has also been executing. In Q3 2025, the
company posted EPS OF $0.50 and REVENUE OF $6.97 BILLION, beating
consensus expectations, with revenue up 2.7% YEAR OVER YEAR.

On the analyst front, HSBC upgraded Freeport-McMoRan to BUY and raised
its price target to $50 (from $43) amid stronger copper and gold price
assumptions, according to an Investing.com note carried by Yahoo
Finance.

TRADING TAKEAWAY: FCX is already extended after a powerful move
(it’s around $60.76). For disciplined positioning, it often pays to
SCALE entries (rather than chase), and use volatility to your
advantage.

ETF: GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF (SYM: COPX)
A DIVERSIFIED BASKET OF COPPER MINERS TO SPREAD SINGLE-STOCK RISK

If you want copper exposure without tying your outcome to one
company’s mine plan, jurisdiction, or quarterly execution, COPX is a
straightforward approach.

COPX’s mandate is to provide broad access to copper mining
companies, giving you sector-level exposure in a single trade. The
ETF’s TOTAL EXPENSE RATIO IS 0.65%.

TRADING TAKEAWAY: COPX tends to move with copper, but company-specific
factors (cost inflation, politics, mine disruptions) can amplify moves
in both directions. Still, diversification can reduce the “one
headline breaks the trade” risk that comes with single names. COPX
last traded around $85.21.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

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