1) Donald Trump: Crime Fighter

New 2025 national crime data shows a sharp reduction in murders, sexual assaults, armed robberies, and nearly every other violent offense.

This chart from the Council on Criminal Justice shows that homicide rates reached an all-time low last year, dating back to 1900, if their projection is accurate.

The same downward pattern was observed in most other violent crimes across the country.

Assaults:

Robberies:

Carjackings:

Why crime has dropped so sharply during Trump 2.0 isn't entirely clear, but a contributing factor is certainly the priority the Trump administration has given to deporting criminal aliens. Tom Homan reports that more than 250,000 criminal aliens have been sent home. Others have self-deported now that there’s a new sheriff in town.  

Fewer criminals on the streets means fewer crimes. Congrats also to Trump's AG, Pam Bondi, for a successful anti-crime crusade.

The new data is supportive of Trump's wise new pivot on immigration policy: target dangerous felons for deportation and de-emphasize raids against illegal immigrants who are working and otherwise law-abiding.

2) Will This Be the Seahawks' Last Super Bowl?

A constant theme of the HOTLINE so far this year is the blizzard of tax-increase proposals from blue states and cities.

This one caught our eye on the eve of Seattle's fourth Super Bowl appearance.

Washington's Democrat governor Bob Ferguson has just proposed a "jock tax."

Ferguson wants to impose a 9.9% income tax on Seahawks players with more than $1 million in income (that's most of them). This would also apply to players on visiting teams who would pay a "duty tax" for days spent in Washington.

It's a back-door income tax in a state where income taxes are constitutionally prohibited. Since 1932, voters have rejected an income tax 11 straight times.

This tax on earnings will hamper Seattle’s sports competitiveness. At a 9.9% rate, Washington would move from one of the nine states with no income tax to the 8th highest rate (on pro athletes) in the nation.  

Good luck signing top QBs and other free agents to come play for the Seahawks or top baseball players to wear the Mariners uniform.

Taxes have consequences.

3) Trump Tariffs Have Already Dropped by Almost Half

The chart below shows the average U.S. tariff rates on imports over the past year. Our tariff rates were about 5% at the start of the year, but soared to about 30% after "liberation day" last spring.

But the good news is that the average rate is now back down to about 16% thanks to Trump's new tit-for-tat tariff policy.

Our outlook for 2026 is further easing - no matter how the Supreme Court rules - because President Trump will continue to extract foreign policy concessions, declare victory, and ease back tariffs. We don't like tariffs, but we often like Trump's trade deals that lower tariffs on U.S. products.

4) Senate Democrats Block Voter ID Law That 2/3rds of Their Own Voters Support

The partial government shutdown ended yesterday when Republicans agreed not to add the SAVE Act, which would mandate that states require an ID and proof of citizenship to be able to vote in federal elections. Senate Democrats threatened to torpedo the entire funding bill if it included the voter integrity provision.

The bill has passed the House twice but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer railed that "the SAVE Act is nothing more than Jim Crow 2.0. It would disenfranchise millions of Americans."

By that, he really means the act would disenfranchise people who are not legally eligible to vote.

Sounds to us like the Schumer Democrats WANT ineligible voters to vote. This law requires voters show the same type of ID now required to sign up for federal programs such as Medicare and Social Security. It's true that noncitizens are already barred from voting in federal elections, but without verification, there's no effective way to enforce that.

Harry Enten, a CNN data analyst, finds overwhelming support for requiring a photo ID to vote. In last year's Pew Research poll it was backed by 71% of Democrats, 76% of blacks, and 82% of Latinos. When it comes to voter ID, Enten said the issue is a complete "nontraversy."

So is Chuck Schumer saying that three out of four blacks support a Jim Crow Law?  

5) We Were First in Line Recommending Warsh for the Fed Chair

We note with some pride and satisfaction that President Trump's pick to chair the Federal Reserve came from our shortlist presented to him by the Unleash Prosperity co-founders Stephen Moore and Arthur Laffer during the campaign.

6) Why Didn't We Think of That?

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