the ballot measure on Medicaid expansion in Missouri + previews Arizona’s primary elections August 4
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Welcome to the Wednesday, July 29, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

* Missouri voters will decide measure August 4 regarding Medicaid expansion
* Previewing Arizona’s Aug. 4 battleground primaries
* 3,077 major party candidates have filed to run for Congress in 2020

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** MISSOURI VOTERS WILL DECIDE MEASURE AUGUST 4 REGARDING MEDICAID EXPANSION
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Monday’s _Brew_ highlighted ([link removed]) the more than 1,500 elections we’re covering among five states on Tuesday, August 4. In addition, there is also one statewide ballot measure our team is covering. Missouri voters will decide a state constitutional amendment regarding Medicaid.

Missouri Amendment 2—the Medicaid Expansion Initiative—would:

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expand Medicaid to those with incomes at or below 138% of the federal poverty level under the Affordable Care Act,

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requiring the state to seek maximum federal funding of Medicaid expansion 

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prohibit any additional restrictions for the expanded population to qualify for Medicaid coverage.

Sponsors of initiated constitutional amendments in Missouri must submit petition signatures equal to eight percent of the votes cast in the previous gubernatorial election from six of the state’s eight congressional districts. Thus, the number of required signatures depends on the congressional districts in which signatures were collected. Based on the specific districts used, 172,015 valid signatures were required.  State officials determined that initiative sponsors submitted 258,686 valid signatures in those districts. 

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson (R) announced May 26 that the measure would be on the Aug. 4 ballot. In a press release announcing his decision, Parson said, “Pass or fail, it is important that we understand the implications of Medicaid expansion as soon as possible. Placing the initiative on the August ballot will give us more time to prepare and account for the outcome in our state budget.” 

Maine was the first state to expand Medicaid through a ballot initiative in 2017. Voters in Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah approved ballot initiatives to expand Medicaid in 2018. A 2018 Montana initiative that would have renewed Medicaid expansion and increased tobacco taxes was defeated. ON JUNE 30, OKLAHOMA VOTERS APPROVED AN INITIATIVE TO EXPAND MEDICAID, 50.5% TO 49.5%. A total of 37 states and Washington, D.C., have expanded or voted to expand Medicaid. The 13 states that have not expanded Medicaid all have Republican-controlled legislatures. Ten have Republican governors and three have Democratic governors. 

[Expanding Medicaid]

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** PREVIEWING ARIZONA’S AUG. 4 BATTLEGROUND PRIMARIES 
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With five states holding primaries Aug. 4, we’re highlighting a different state in each of the next five Brews to preview the battleground primaries. Taking them alphabetically, let’s start with Arizona.

THERE ARE FOUR BATTLEGROUND PRIMARIES TAKING PLACE IN ARIZONA. Battlegrounds are elections that Ballotpedia expects to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive or compelling.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN ARIZONA'S 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ([link removed])

The 6th District is one of five primarily urban districts centered around Phoenix. Four candidates are running in this primary. Hiral Tipirneni and Anita Malik have led in endorsements, fundraising, and media coverage. 

Malik was the Democratic nominee in this district in 2018. She lost to incumbent David Schweikert (R) in the 2018 general election, receiving 45% of the vote to Schweikert's 55%. Tipirneni was the Democratic nominee in 2018 in both the special and general elections in Arizona’s Eighth District. She lost to Rep. Debbie Lesko (R) in both contests. 

President Donald Trump (R) carried the Sixth District in the 2016 presidential election over Hillary Clinton (D), 52% to 42%. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball characterize the general election as Lean Republican. Inside Elections rates the general election as Likely Republican.

The other battleground primaries in Arizona are:

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Democratic primary in Arizona's 1st Congressional District ([link removed])

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Incumbent Tom O'Halleran and challenger Eva Putzova are running in this primary. O'Halleran is a former Republican member of the state legislature and was first elected to the seat as a Democrat in 2016 and did not face a primary challenger in 2018. The 1st District is one of 30 districts nationwide currently held by a Democrat that Trump carried in 2016 and is the only such district in Arizona.

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Republican primary for Arizona's U.S. Senate special election ([link removed])

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Democratic primary for Arizona's U.S. Senate special election ([link removed])

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Incumbent Martha McSally and Daniel McCarthy are running in the Republican primary in the special election called to fill the remainder of the late Sen. John McCain's (R) term. McCain died on August 25, 2018. Astronaut and U.S. Navy veteran Mark Kelly is being challenged by write-in candidate Bo Garcia for the Democratic nomination. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed McSally to the seat in December 2018. 

We’ll have previews of the battleground primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington in the Brew right up to Aug. 4.

Learn more→ ([link removed])
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** 3,077 MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES HAVE FILED TO RUN FOR CONGRESS IN 2020
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Louisiana’s congressional filing deadline passed on Friday—July 24—which was the last state with a major-party deadline for the 2020 election cycle. Although independent candidates may continue to file with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for Congress, here are the numbers of major-party candidates in 2020 as compared with 2018.

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US Senate

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In 2020, 382 major-party candidates—194 Democrats and 188 Republicans—have filed with the FEC to run for U.S. Senate. 

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In 2018, 377 major-party candidates—137 Democrats and 240 Republicans—filed as U.S. Senate candidates. 

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Through July 27, 99 independent or third-party candidates filed with the FEC to run for Senate as compared with 150 such candidates for those offices in 2018.

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US House

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In 2020, a total of 2,695 major-party candidates—1,263 Democrats and 1,432 Republicans—are running for seats in the House of Representatives. 

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In 2018, there were 2,721 major-party candidates—1,566 Democrats and 1,155 Republicans—who ran for U.S. House seats. 

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There are 397 independent or third-party candidates who have filed with the FEC through July 27, as compared with 523 such candidates in 2018. 

[U.S. House candidates]

Learn more→ ([link removed])
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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
 

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