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|  January was an action-packed month during which I delivered a keynote speech to a group of global agriculture leaders, addressed the Cayman Islands Chamber of Commerce, and spoke with dozens of academics, authors, journalists, and experts around the world. I also released my annual set of predictions and had some fascinating conversations about their implications. Links to my January posts are below.
Best wishes for a thought-filled February!
- Vikram
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| JANUARY 4, 2026
In preparation for the publication of my annual predictions on January 7th, I asked Notion AI (a blend of ChatGPT and Claude) to tell me how well I’ve done over the past 11 years. Here’s its response — unedited, and complete with links to its sources.
Here’s a concise, “synthesized” view of your annual predictions over roughly the last decade, with an emphasis on what actually played out. 1. What the annual predictions areAcross LinkedIn, your site, and now Substack, you’ve been publishing “X Global Developments To Watch Over the Next Five Years” each year since at least 2015.[1][2][3][4][5][6]
Each list is framed as a five‑year look‑ahead, not a one‑year forecast, which matters when judging “hits.” Broadly, the lists consistently emphasized:
Geopolitical realignment (US–China, Russia, Europe’s cohesion, NATO, populism) Debt, monetary policy, and asset bubbles Technological shifts (AI, cyber, telecoms bifurcation) Supply chains and de‑globalization Pandemics and global health risk Climate and resource constraints (energy, water, food)…
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| JANUARY 7, 2026
2025 will likely go down in history as one of the most eventful, action-packed years of the 21st century. The return of Donald Trump to the White House was perhaps the most consequential event, but the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and its voracious appetite for energy, China’s domestic deflation, and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine competed for headlines. The Epstein files proved far more resilient than expected, gasoline prices plunged while gold surged, and many stock markets rose to new highs.
All of this took place while Thailand and Cambodia went to war, the nasty civil war in Sudan raged unabated, and South America began shifting right. The Gulf of Mexico was renamed the Gulf of America, and the Department of Defense became the Department of War. California endured horrific wildfires, Jamaica was hit by a category 5 hurricane, and the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution failed to reach any agreement. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern agreed to merge, Google purchased cloud security firm Wiz for $32 billion in cash, and Chevron bought Hess. Newark struggled to keep its airport functioning, the government shut down, and the United States delivered a major blow the Iranian nuclear program. America also began preparations for its 250th birthday.
And let’s not forget what Dave Barry has called the biggest story of 2025: news that a devious raccoon broke into a Virginia liquor store and was found passed out in the bathroom. As Barry went on to note in his annual (must read) Year in Review, “that’s where the raccoon was found by a store employee, who called the animal-control officer, who took it to an animal shelter. When the raccoon finally sobered up, it was… |
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| JANUARY 11, 2026
The key to navigating today’s uncertainty, I’ve argued, is to form a mosaic from the cross-current of the forces buffeting our world. Leaders need to focus on connecting dots across seemingly disparate domains. Siloed thinking around a single discipline (economics, for instance) is a sure-fire way to misinterpret today’s chaos and experts who fail to broaden their thinking will struggle to lead effectively as they gain greater responsibility.
Trump’s return to the White House last year has brought about a dizzyingly realignment of global dynamics, and many leaders are caught in the swirl, unable to find a fixed point with which to orient themselves. The world feels out of control and disorder seems to be the new normal. Over the past year, I have tried to provide that fixed point, explaining what I see in terms of the realignment and the new axis around which the world will turn.
America’s neighbors to the north are the latest example of what happens when this gyroscope is upended. A recent Economist article entitled “Canada’s Armed Forces are Planning for Threats from America” details recent Canadian war planning that included possible defensive scenarios against America. Yes, you read that right: Canada is preparing for a possible war with the United States… |
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| JANUARY 18, 2026
I recently wrote about Canada’s military preparing for a possible war with the United States. I suggested we might make sense of the seemingly shocking headline as an effort for global elites in Canada to bolster support for their diversification agenda.
Efforts such as these are fundamentally oriented towards maintaining the status quo…a status quo which…drumroll please…keeps them in charge. Worse than keeping them in charge, many of the policies they promote hurt the very people they claim to represent. They implement policies that they themselves refuse to follow in a quest to stay in charge.
As a case in point, consider Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s climate agenda. Why shouldn’t Canada develop its amazing endowment of hydrocarbon resources? Doing so would increase growth, generate jobs, and lower inflation—a genuine benefit to most Canadians… |
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| JANUARY 25, 2026
Last summer I wrote about a long-simmering movement to have the Canadian province of Alberta secede from the rest of the country. I wrote at the time that the idea wasn’t as crazy as it sounds…Alberta accounts for most of Canada’s energy resources and production and also has significant mineral and rare earth reserves. The province is teeming with potential and freeing it from the shackles of overregulation and Ottawa’s control could, I noted, “Make Alberta Great Again.”
The secession movement is gaining steam. There’s an effort to collect petition signatures to put the issue to a referendum, and events around the province have drawn a lot of interest; long lines stretching blocks have been reported at many locations. The effort needs to submit 177,000 petitions by May 2, and organizers are confident that they will hit the mark.
The province has long been at odds with Canada’s eastern political elites, mostly over the latter’s attempts to stifle the province’s exploitation of its natural resources. Albertans have often threatened to restrict supply to the eastern provinces in protest… |
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| | | | Read Vikram’s Prior Predictions! |
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| Since 2015, Dr. Mansharamani has publicly posted a set of global developments to watch over the following five years. Corporate executives, government leaders (including several heads of state!), journalists, academics, and others eagerly read, reread, and look forward to his annual piece. If you reread his prior pieces, you’ll find some developments he noted come to fruition, and others simply did not happen. But as Dr. Mansharamani repeatedly notes, the goal of the predictions is not accuracy, but instead usefulness in provoking thoughts about possible futures. Click on the link below to review his posts from 2015 through 2025. |
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| | As many of you are aware, I’ve returned to writing my weekly newsletter and have been pleased by the rapidly growing interest in my thoughts. As I have in the past, I’m addressing a wide range of topics, ranging from geopolitics and economics to social trends to technology. The overall theme of my work is focused on “navigating uncertainty” and how a generalist approach can help us all make sense of what seems like chaos.
If you have not already done so, please consider subscribing! |
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| | | Want Vikram to speak at your event? |
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| Have an upcoming board meeting, corporate offsite, conference, or other event in which you might want to have Vikram share his views about the global economy, geopolitical dynamics, technological developments, or social pressures? Click below to inquire about his availability! |
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| VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. He’s currently the Chairman and CEO of Goodwell Foods, a manufacturer of private label frozen pizza. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of three books, The Making of a Generalist: An Independent Thinker Finds Unconventional Success in an Uncertain World, Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing. |
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