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Afternoon Edition

January 29, 2026

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Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming, but the NFL is drawing a hard line when it comes to Super Bowl commercials. As ad prices for the Big Game hit record highs, a source tells Front Office Sports that these fast-growing platforms are being shut out of the biggest stage in sports.

— Ben Horney [[link removed]] and Eric Fisher [[link removed]]

NFL Won’t Allow Prediction-Market Super Bowl Commercials [[link removed]]

Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The rise of prediction markets over the last year has been impossible to ignore, with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket raising billions of dollars and traditional sports betting giants like DraftKings and FanDuel launching their own platforms.

But you won’t see any prediction-market commercials during Super Bowl LX between the Patriots and Seahawks on Feb. 8.

Prediction markets are among the list of “prohibited categories” for the Super Bowl, a source familiar with the matter tells Front Office Sports. Prediction-market commercials have not been allowed on NFL broadcasts all season; they were added to the list of categories the NFL forbids before the kickoff of the 2025 season, the source says.

Although the list of prohibited categories is not public, it’s known to include tobacco, pornography, firearms, and other controversial subjects.

While the NHL [[link removed]] and MLS [[link removed]] have embraced prediction markets, the NFL has remained staunchly opposed. The league has expressed concerns [[link removed]] about the integrity of the game, saying sports event contracts lack “safeguards” that regulated sports betting has, including “prohibitions on easily manipulated markets” and “official league data requirements.”

The Super Bowl is typically the most-watched TV event of the year. Last year, Fox said the game delivered an average of 127.7 million viewers [[link removed]] across all platforms—a record for a single event in U.S. television history. Prices for 30-second ads during the game, which will be broadcast on NBC, have risen as high as $10 million this year. Last year, when the game was broadcast on Fox, roughly a dozen 30-second ad units sold for at least $8 million each [[link removed]].

Companies that have prediction-market platforms—like Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, DraftKings, Coinbase, Robinhood, and more—can certainly afford to buy a Super Bowl ad. The operator of the New York Stock Exchange agreed in October [[link removed]] to pour up to $2 billion into Polymarket, while Kalshi in early December announced $1 billion in new funding [[link removed]]. DraftKings will have a Super Bowl ad of some kind, a person familiar with the matter tells FOS, and FanDuel will reportedly [[link removed]] have an ad before the game. The other companies could buy Super Bowl spots to promote other aspects of their business but not prediction markets.

Notably, sports betting is not one of the prohibited categories, although the league is enforcing limits around the number of ads there will be—GamblingHarm.org reported [[link removed]] that no more than six total sports betting ads will be allowed at this year’s Super Bowl.

Kalshi declined to comment on whether it sought a Super Bowl ad, and Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Kalshi has a market allowing users to trade on “ which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026? [[link removed]]” As of Thursday afternoon, volume for that market had risen to almost $1.2 million—the leading contenders were Pepsi, Liquid Death, and Him & Hers. Polymarket’s U.S. app does not have any markets for the NFL yet, but its international platform has markets on the NFL and the Super Bowl [[link removed]], as well as a market on “ which companies will run ads during Super Bowl LX? [[link removed]]” The volume on the latter market—more than $33,000—is a fraction of the Kalshi market. Leading the pack on Polymarket as of Thursday morning were ChatGPT parent OpenAI, Toyota, and State Farm.

Depending on where you live, it’s possible a prediction-market commercial could slip through during the broadcast. Local TV affiliates often have different commercials from the national broadcast. In 2012 and 2013, Old Milwaukee beer ads featuring Will Ferrell [[link removed]] ran only in places like Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Last year, rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, was able to get seemingly innocuous apparel ads aired on three stations owned and operated by Fox in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, as well as a separately operated affiliate in St. Louis—shortly after the game ended. The website he promoted in the commercials changed from a full apparel shop to just a $20 swastika T-shirt [[link removed]].

MORE FOS EXCLUSIVES

Ex-Nike Exec Takes Helm of League One Volleyball

Sandra Idehen, a former Nike executive, will lead League One Volleyball as its inaugural commissioner, Front Office Sports has learned. For more on League One volleyball, read Annie Costabile’s story here [[link removed]].

Former Dodger Star Nears NBC MLB Studio Role

Clayton Kershaw is in talks to join NBC’s MLB studio coverage, sources told FOS. For more on Kershaw and NBC’s baseball plans, read Ryan Glasspiegel’s story here [[link removed]].

SPONSORED BY ATHLETES UNLIMITED

Women’s Sports Is Big Business

On Feb. 26, Front Office Sports and Athletes Unlimited are joining forces to host Future of Women’s Sports with speakers Sydney Colson, Athletes Unlimited athlete; Uzma Rawn Dowler of Major League Baseball; Michelle Kennedy of the Nashville Predators; Lara Krug of the Kansas City Chiefs; Carolyn Braff of PepsiCo; Nancy Dubuc of TOGETHXR; Jon Patricof of Athletes Unlimited; and others.

This half-day summit [[link removed]]—hosted in one of the country’s most dynamic sports cities—will forecast where women’s sports is headed and highlight the vast opportunities that still lie ahead.

Set in advance of the AU Pro Basketball Championship game, this experience will bring together collaborators in culture, business, and competition to explore what’s next.

This is your front-row seat to the future of women’s sports. Don’t miss your opportunity to join us— request to attend [[link removed]].

Royals Stadium Plans Hit Suburban Dead End, Push Back Downtown [[link removed]]

Kim Klement-Imagn Images

It’s increasingly becoming downtown Kansas City or bust for a new Royals ballpark as two prominent options are now off the table.

Officials in Clay County, Mo., located north of the city, said Wednesday they will no longer “engage in a bidding competition with other jurisdictions” regarding a potential ballpark deal. The move ends, at least for now, talks with the team that stretched for nearly three years. The county said the MLB club missed a Jan. 8 deadline to have a finalized proposal that would be ready to go before voters in an April ballot.

“The Royals elected not to accept the county’s proposal within that timeframe. As a result, no proposal will be presented to the public for a vote,” said the seven-member Clay County Commission in a statement.

Meanwhile, the team has also abandoned a potential ballpark and mixed-use development across the state line in suburban Overland Park, Kansas. That decision follows a decision by Kansas officials [[link removed]] not to continue talks with the club after Dec. 31, 2025. The mortgage for that land in Overland Park under consideration has been held by a Royals affiliate [[link removed]].

“After significant evaluation, we do not believe this site meets our criteria for a stadium,” the Royals said in a statement. “We continue to evaluate opportunities throughout the Kansas City metropolitan area to create a world-class ballpark district. … We remain hard at work toward the best solution for our team, fans, partners, and community.”

What’s Next?

The Royals continue to press on, developing a new plan that would enable the franchise to leave Kauffman Stadium, their current home stadium, when their lease ends after the 2030 season.

As a result of the latest decisions, there is a renewed focus on possible site options in downtown Kansas City, even as that previously ran into political and neighborhood opposition. One potential option, however, remains Washington Square Park, located near the city’s famed Union Station. That locale has been favored by Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas.

Meanwhile, the Royals’ current neighbors in the Truman Sports Complex, the NFL’s Chiefs, have finalized their plan to move to Kansas and build a domed stadium [[link removed]]. Progress continues on that project, and the Chiefs are down to two finalists to design the forthcoming facility [[link removed]]. The football team’s forthcoming departure has also begun to galvanize city, county, and state leaders in Missouri who previously had been more divided regarding the Royals.

Like many other teams, most recently the Rays [[link removed]], the Royals intend to surround a new ballpark with an expansive mixed-use development. Those efforts look to replicate the ongoing success of the Braves and The Battery [[link removed]] in Atlanta.

STATUS REPORT Two Up, One Down, One Push

Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

WTGL ⬇ Nelly Korda, the world No. 2–ranked women’s golf player, said she had “mixed feelings” about the new women’s team indoor golf league [[link removed]] set to launch later this year. “I think it’s a huge and unbelievable miss that we’re not playing alongside the men,” Korda told Golfweek [[link removed]]. “There’s no greater way to grow the game, and it would have been revolutionary.” Korda has not yet committed to competing in WTGL.

SEC ⬆ The conference had 10 women’s basketball teams ranked in the recent AP poll, becoming the first conference with double-digit women’s teams in the rankings. Georgia was the most recent team to enter the poll, coming in at No. 23 after defeating Arkansas and Kentucky. Seven of the ranked teams will be in action Thursday.

Artemi Panarin ⬆⬇ The Rangers’ right winger was held out of Wednesday’s game for “roster management” reasons. New York has given Panarin permission to seek a trade and negotiate an extension, making it unlikely that he will suit up [[link removed]] for the Blueshirts again. Panarin is in the final year of a seven-year, $81.5 million contract and has a full no-movement clause, which will allow him to dictate which contender he gets traded to.

Bronny James ⬆ Fans in Cleveland were chanting all night for Bronny to enter Wednesday’s Lakers-Cavaliers game, and when he did in the fourth quarter, he debuted his signature logo. His bright pink Nike shoes featured a logo of a lowercase “B” in black, with a “J” in white inside of the “B” on the heel. James is in the second year of his four-year, $7.9 million rookie contract.

Editors’ Picks NBC Sports Parent Earnings Slip As Subscriber Numbers Slide [[link removed]]by Eric Fisher [[link removed]]The NBC Sports parent company again touts its live-rights portfolio. World Cup Going Primetime: Fox to Air Record 40 Matches at Night [[link removed]]by Eric Fisher [[link removed]]More matches than ever will be shown in primetime and on broadcast TV. Serena Williams Doesn’t Shut Down Potential Pro Tennis Return [[link removed]]by Colin Salao [[link removed]]Williams would not outright deny a return to professional tennis. DAILY TRIVIA Factle Sports

Can you rank the top five NHL goalies by most career wins?

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