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Hello Capitalists,
Here is everything you should be watching today:
Major DC consulting firm kicked to the curb after Trump leak
Betting markets put odds of a government shutdown at 80%
Big Short Burry is now buying Gamestop
Houston is buzzing over the prospect of Venezuela oil deals
Disney CEO succession drama gives investors the jitters
Today’s markets + assets:
🔴 DOW: 48880.96 (⬇️ 1.08%)
✅ S&P: 6973.72 (⬆️ 0.33%)
✅ NASDAQ: 23804.07 (⬆️ 0.85%)
⚠️✅CBOE VIX Volatility Index: 16.22 (⬆️ 0.43%)
✅ Gold: $5083.20(⬆️ 0.00%)
🔴 Silver:$106.93 (⬇️ 7.42%)
✅ Bitcoin: $87,581 (⬇️ 0.13%)
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Treasury axes Booz Allen contracts over Trump tax leak
The Trump administration’s Treasury Department canceled all contracts with consulting giant Booz Allen Hamilton on Monday, [ [link removed] ] citing the firm’s failure to safeguard sensitive taxpayer data after an employee leaked President Trump’s tax records to media outlets.
Contracts terminated immediately: Treasury ended 31 active deals with Booz Allen, worth $4.8 million annually and $21 million in total obligations, effective immediately.
Leak tied to ex-employee: The action stems from contractor Charles Littlejohn, who previously disclosed confidential IRS records—including Trump’s and those of billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos—to news organizations.
Security failures highlighted: Treasury accused Booz Allen of inadequate safeguards for sensitive taxpayer information accessed via IRS contracts, eroding public trust in government data handling.
Stock impact severe: Booz Allen Hamilton shares plunged over 8% following the announcement, amid broader Trump administration scrutiny of federal consulting contracts.
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Government Shutdown odds soar to 80 percent
Prediction market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket now give [ [link removed] ]nearly 80% odds [ [link removed] ] [ [link removed] ]that the U.S. government will shut down this Saturday amid a fierce funding battle over Department of Homeland Security appropriations and President Trump’s immigration policies, with probabilities surging dramatically over the past two days.
Markets Surge Sharply: Kalshi traders assign 75% chance of shutdown starting Saturday, up 64 points in two days; Polymarket hits 79%, up 70 points.
DHS Funding Clash: Bettors reacting to impasse over funding for Department of Homeland Security tied to immigration enforcement priorities under Trump administration.
High Volume Bets: Polymarket’s related shutdown market sees massive trading activity, reflecting intense trader conviction in near-term lapse.
Weekend Deadline Looms: Potential partial shutdown begins Saturday if Congress fails to pass appropriations bill, threatening federal operations and services.
Shutdown looms but economy may shrug it off
Congress races toward a Jan. 30 deadline to pass final fiscal 2026 funding bills, [ [link removed] ] [ [link removed] ]averting a partial government shutdown that economists say would disrupt far less of the US economy than last fall’s record 43-day closure.
Limited scope this time: Only six funding bills remain at issue, meaning a shutdown would affect fewer federal agencies and operations compared to the broad lapse that dragged on for 43 days last fall.
Economic impact minimized: Experts note this potential stoppage would cause milder market and growth effects, as key sectors like defense and veterans affairs already hold full-year funding from prior measures.
Political flashpoint DHS funding: Democratic resistance centers on inadequate reforms for ICE and Homeland Security amid recent controversies, threatening Senate passage despite bipartisan negotiator deals.
Deadline pressure intensifies: With the House already approving the package, the Senate must act swiftly next week or risk a second partial shutdown in the fiscal year under the new Trump administration.
Big Short Burry buys GameStop again, sparks surge
Michael Burry, the investor immortalized in The Big Short, revealed Monday he has been buying GameStop shares as a long-term value play, [ [link removed] ] sending the meme-stock favorite up more than 6% amid renewed investor interest in CEO Ryan Cohen’s strategy.
Burry discloses position : In a Substack post, Burry stated “I own GME” and has been buying recently, viewing shares as nearing 1x tangible book value or net asset value.
Long-term value focus : Burry emphasized this is not a bet on meme speculation or short squeezes, praising CEO Ryan Cohen as a young leader deploying capital effectively for decades ahead.
Cohen boosts stake : GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen recently purchased 1 million shares personally, aligning interests with shareholders and signaling confidence in the company’s future.
Market reaction modest : Shares rallied over 4-6% on the news but Burry downplayed chances of a 2021-style massive short squeeze, framing it as a patient investment opportunity.
Houston erupts over Venezuela oil rush frenzy
Less than a month after the U.S. military incursion into Caracas to capture President Nicolas Maduro, Houston’s oil industry is buzzing with excitement [ [link removed] ] as companies gear up for a potential massive Venezuela oil revival, with President Trump seeking $100 billion in investments to rebuild the nation’s crumbling energy sector.
Industry excitement surges: Houston firms are flooded with Venezuela-related inquiries following the U.S. intervention and Maduro’s capture, sparking visions of a new oil boom.
Halliburton fields calls: CEO Jeff Miller reports his phone “ringing off the hook” with opportunities, as the company pursues licenses to return after exiting in 2020 due to sanctions.
Trump pushes massive investment: The administration targets $100 billion to refurbish Venezuela’s dilapidated oil infrastructure, including marine terminals for blending and exporting crude.
Analysts note initial hype: Experts like Francisco Monaldi highlight widespread eagerness to move quickly, though long-term success depends on deeper reforms and stability.
Disney CEO succession drama has investors nervous
Disney’s prolonged CEO succession uncertainty [ [link removed] ] under Bob Iger has investors on edge, driving down the stock price as the board nears a decision on his early-2026 replacement amid echoes of past leadership failures.
Board Accelerates Search : Succession committee met frequently last fiscal year, evaluating internal candidates with full board set to decide soon on Iger’s successor.
Iger Compensation Surges : Bob Iger’s FY2025 pay climbed to $45.8 million, up 11-12% from prior year, as transition planning intensifies.
Shareholder Meeting Scheduled : Annual meeting fixed for March 16 or 18, 2026, potentially aligning with successor announcement to ensure smooth handover.
Investor Anxiety Builds : Lingering doubts from previous botched transition fuel concerns over business continuity and long-term value in volatile media landscape.
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