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Welcome to the January edition of The Lever, featuring expert insights and analysis from Voting Rights Lab ([link removed]) .
In this month’s newsletter, we share our predictions ([link removed]) for election policy trends that will dominate state legislatures in 2026. We also examine where President Trump’s executive order on elections stands in the courts. Finally, we dive into President Trump’s coordinated efforts to interfere in elections — and their implications for the 2026 midterm elections.
** 2026 ELECTION LEGISLATION PREVIEW: HIGH STAKES AND MOVING FAST
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Throughout the first year of his second term, President Trump attempted to pressure states to conform to his elections agenda, giving his administration a bigger hand over how states run elections. As detailed in our 2025 states roundup ([link removed]) , some of Trump's directives fared better than others.
Now, with the 2026 elections looming, states are running against the clock, and the stakes are even higher. Any new rules adopted this session must be implemented on a rushed timeline to take effect in time for the spring and summer primaries.
Here are four predictions for the 2026 legislative session:
1. States will hit the ground running on Trump’s election agenda, including proof of citizenship mandates, new hurdles for mail voters, shorter ballot return windows, and attacks on military voters.
2. Last-minute congressional redistricting will confuse voters and election officials and create election chaos.
3. Some states will make proactive changes to prevent election manipulation and improve election administration.
4. Federal overreach into state elections will continue to loom large, as will consequential Supreme Court rulings.
Read our latest analysis ([link removed]) for a deeper dive into our predictions — and how these new election rules could affect voters and election administrators come November.
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** BY THE NUMBERS
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That’s how many federal courts have now blocked significant portions of President Donald Trump’s 2025 executive order ([link removed]) on elections. Following similar rulings in Massachusetts and Washington, D.C., the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington found that several of the order’s requirements exceeded the president’s authority.
A federal judge blocked the provision that would require all mail ballots to be received by Election Day. It also threatened states’ federal funding if election officials refused to comply.
Trump’s attempt to interfere with mail ballot receipt deadlines could disenfranchise millions of voters across the country. During the 2024 election, for example, as many as 134,000 mail ballots in Oregon and Washington were received after Election Day but postmarked on time.
READ MORE ([link removed])
** WHAT WE’RE READING: TRUMP IS TRYING TO CHANGE HOW THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE CONDUCTED
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President Trump is testing the limits of his power and challenging long-standing democratic norms. He has cast this year’s elections in existential terms — and even teased the notion of cancelling elections, not once but twice.
A recent Washington Post story ([link removed]) summarizes the ways the Trump administration is vying to reshape how the midterm elections are conducted. These changes include pushing for redrawing congressional voting districts, attacking mail voting and voting machines, bullying states into sharing sensitive voter data in pursuit of “clean” voter rolls, deploying the National Guard in American cities, and more.
READ MORE ([link removed])
** THE MARKUP
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The Markup is our weekly election law and policy update, powered by our Election Policy Tracker ([link removed]) . You can subscribe by checking the box at the bottom of this form ([link removed]) .
Here’s an excerpt from yesterday's edition:
* Federal court strikes down Virginia's felony disenfranchisement policy. A federal district court ruled that Virginia’s broad disenfranchisement of citizens with past felony convictions violates the Virginia Readmission Act. This federal law — enacted in 1870 — prohibits the state from depriving citizens of the right to vote except for convictions of felonies that existed at the time. Under the court's ruling, Virginia may not disenfranchise citizens for convictions of crimes, such as drug offenses, that were not felonies in 1870. According to the plaintiffs, 264,292 Virginians were disenfranchised under the state's policy.
* GOP lawmakers look to revive the SAVE Act. Congressional Republicans have indicated an interest in bolstering the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act – commonly referred to as the SAVE Act. This legislation, which has passed the House twice in recent years, would require voters to provide state officials with proof of citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, to register to vote in federal elections. Proposed amendments would also impose a national photo ID requirement for voting. Senate Democrats are committed to blocking the bill.
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