Earnings season can reprice entire sectors fast—three tech names to
watch next. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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[Morning Watchlist]
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INTEL COULD IGNITE A SUBSTANTIAL TECH RALLY LATER THIS WEEK
Earnings season is where narratives meet reality.
Markets can run on themes for months—AI, cloud, consumer strength,
disinflation—but quarterly earnings are still the mechanism that
converts stories into numbers: revenue, margins, cash flow, and (most
importantly) FORWARD GUIDANCE. That is why a single report from the
right company can move not only the stock, but the tone across an
entire sector.
This week, Intel delivered a perfect reminder of that dynamic—while
two other widely watched tech names are lining up as the next major
catalysts: BLOCK (now trading under ticker XYZ) and ROBLOX.
Below is the actionable takeaway: what Intel’s report really
signaled, why investors are fixating on guidance, and what to watch
next as tech moves from “headline trade” to “fundamental
tape.”
-------------------------
INTEL’S EARNINGS: THE BEAT WAS REAL—THEN GUIDANCE TOOK OVER
Intel reported fourth-quarter 2025 results AFTER THE CLOSE ON
THURSDAY, JANUARY 22, 2026. By the numbers, the quarter was better
than feared:
*
ADJUSTED EPS: $0.15 versus expectations near $0.08
*
REVENUE: $13.67B versus expectations near $13.44B
However, the market did what it often does with large-cap tech: it
quickly moved past the backward-looking beat and repriced the stock on
the FORWARD OUTLOOK.
Intel’s first-quarter 2026 guide came in soft, with management
forecasting revenue of $11.7B TO $12.7B (midpoint below consensus near
$12.6B) and indicating that supply constraints would be most acute in
Q1 before improving later in the year.
That gap between “good quarter” and “cautious outlook” is why
the stock dropped sharply in the immediate reaction window.
WHY THIS MATTERS BEYOND INTEL: When a bellwether chip name signals
supply tightness, product-cycle timing, or demand strength/weakness,
it often influences sentiment for adjacent groups—semis, hardware,
AI infrastructure beneficiaries, and even mega-cap tech multiples.
THE KEYBANC ANGLE: SERVER CPUS, GRANITE RAPIDS, AND 2026 VISIBILITY
One of the most constructive datapoints for Intel going into the
print—and still relevant after it—is the server CPU cycle.
KeyBanc analysts wrote that they expected BETTER RESULTS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUIDANCE, supported by STRONG SERVER CPU DEMAND as customers
upgrade to GRANITE RAPIDS, with “visibility that server CPU supply
is nearly sold out through 2026.” That message has circulated widely
in financial press coverage of Intel’s setup.
This is the fundamental tension investors are now arbitraging:
*
On one hand, Intel’s quarter beat expectations and demand visibility
into 2026 (especially servers) has been described as strong.
*
On the other hand, near-term supply constraints and a softer Q1
outlook created a short-term reset.
That is exactly the kind of setup that can produce TWO-WAY
VOLATILITY—and, in certain circumstances, set the stage for a
broader tech rally if follow-on commentary (or subsequent reports from
peers) confirms that demand is firm and the outlook trough is
temporary.
-------------------------
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WHAT WOULD “IGNITE A TECH RALLY” FROM HERE?
Intel already delivered the catalyst event. The next question is
whether the market treats the post-earnings drop as:
*
a warning that the cycle is rolling over, or
*
a temporary air pocket tied to guidance conservatism and supply
timing.
In practical terms, tech could catch a bid if investors gain
confidence in three items:
*
SUPPLY NORMALIZATION TIMELINE: Intel’s CFO said supply would improve
as the year progresses, framing Q1 as the low point.
*
SERVER DEMAND DURABILITY: continued evidence that
enterprise/hyperscale refresh cycles are real (Granite Rapids and
broader server upgrades).
*
AI INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING STAYING RESILIENT: even if spending growth
decelerates, demand can remain high enough to support earnings power
across the stack (chips → servers → platforms).
If those three are affirmed by additional earnings reports, the market
often responds with a sector-level risk-on move—because investors
stop discounting “the worst case.”
NEXT CATALYST #1:
COMPANY: BLOCK (SYM: XYZ) - REPORTS FEBRUARY 19, 2026
The next major tech-adjacent catalyst on the calendar is BLOCK,
scheduled to report earnings on FEBRUARY 19, 2026.
QUICK CLARIFICATION ON THE TICKER
Block officially changed its ticker symbols from SQ / SQ2 TO XYZ
(effective JANUARY 21, 2025 on the NYSE), aligning with its broader
“Block” ecosystem branding.
That matters because investors will increasingly see this name
referenced as XYZ, and it is now commonly listed that way on earnings
calendars.
WHAT INVESTORS WILL WATCH
Your draft correctly frames Block as an “ecosystem” company
spanning merchant (Square), consumer (Cash App), and emerging
initiatives (including Proto). Earnings for Block often hinge less on
a single EPS print and more on:
*
GROSS PROFIT GROWTH and mix
*
CASH APP ENGAGEMENT AND MONETIZATION
*
SQUARE GPV TRENDS and merchant retention
*
FORWARD OUTLOOK (especially around operating leverage)
In other words, Block is another “guidance-driven”
report—exactly the kind of event that can amplify or counterbalance
the post-Intel mood in tech.
-------------------------
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-------------------------
NEXT CATALYST #2:
COMPANY: ROBLOX (SYM: RBLX) - REPORTS FEBRUARY 5, 2026
Roblox is scheduled to report Q4 AND FULL-YEAR 2025 RESULTS AFTER THE
CLOSE ON THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2026, with a conference call at 4:30
P.M. ET.
Roblox matters to the tape because it sits at the intersection of:
*
consumer engagement
*
digital entertainment/platform economics
*
long-duration growth expectations
Your draft’s guidance numbers align with widely circulated summaries
of Roblox’s outlook, including:
*
Q4 REVENUE GUIDANCE: $1.35B–$1.4B (37%–42% growth)
*
FY BOOKINGS GUIDANCE: $6.57B–$6.62B (50%–51% growth)
Even if a company is not yet profitable, strong forward metrics can
still drive the stock—so long as the market believes there is an
eventual path to operating leverage. Roblox is a classic example where
investors will scrutinize:
*
bookings growth and engagement metrics
*
spend on infrastructure/safety versus monetization progress
*
the trajectory of losses and how management frames the path ahead
HOW TO APPROACH THIS EARNINGS-DRIVEN TAPE
When markets are rotating on guidance, a disciplined approach is
usually more effective than trying to predict a single print:
*
RESPECT THE “GUIDANCE TRADE.” The market can punish an EPS beat if
the forward outlook disappoints (Intel just demonstrated this).
*
WATCH FOR CONFIRMATION ACROSS REPORTS. If multiple companies reinforce
the same demand/supply message, sector sentiment often flips quickly.
*
AVOID OVERCONCENTRATION INTO ONE CATALYST. If you want exposure,
consider staging entries or using defined-risk structures rather than
all-in positioning.
-------------------------
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