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For immediate release: January 23, 2026

Contact: [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])

Winston Group Warns GOP: Independent Voters and Economic Messaging Will Decide 2026 Midterms

“They will be a force to reckon with this November.”

WASHINGTON, DC – Exactly 285 days until the 2026 midterm elections, The Ripon Society hosted a luncheon discussion Wednesday with veteran pollsters Winston Group Founder David Winston and Co-Founder Myra Miller who shared their early insights on how they expect voters to cast their ballots in November.

Winston, a pillar of GOP polling, opened the discussion by reflecting on the Republican sweep in 2024 and key findings from his exit polling.

“Ten million less people identified themselves as Democrats in that election – a huge drop off,” Winston noted. “The margin overall in terms of that election was about one and a half points in terms of Trump over Harris, but what you saw was the rise of independents.”

With fresh data gathered as recently as this month, Winston identified the government shutdown, affordability, and inflation as key factors that will determine whether Republicans can win over independent voters in 2026.

Miller, an expert strategist on House and Senate policy, reinforced the economic focus while noting emerging challenges for the GOP.

“There are obviously some challenges. How do we go into this midterm cycle right now? The top issues are overwhelmingly the economy, jobs, and inflation.

“There really are two critical to-do items for Republicans going into November,” she continued, “the first is developing a strategy for independents who are growing in size and influence. They will be a force to reckon with this November. And then secondly, winning the economic narrative.

“Going back to last November’s election, Republicans had double digit leads on inflation and economy. That had been a huge advantage for Republicans all throughout the Biden years. Inflation – we led by 12; the economy – +11. We have seen those leads dissipate over the past year. … it does seem like things are starting to trend slightly in the right direction, but we're still not where we need to be for November.”

Miller then highlighted the Republicans' signature legislative achievement from 2025: The One Big Beautiful Bill.

“This is going to be the hallmark accomplishment that Republicans take into this election, and it is critical that there is an effective sales job and preparation for November. … How important is it for Republicans to sell the bill? Republicans know that we're not famous for effectively selling our legislative accomplishments. Democrats tend to do a much better job, but it is very important for us to do that.”

Drawing lessons from the 2018 midterms, Miller warned that effective messaging remains essential—even in a strong economy.

“Even if the economy takes off this year, and we certainly hope that it does, it should not be assumed that Republicans will naturally benefit. There has to be an effective sales job from the campaigns.”

Winston emphasized that voter perceptions remain a moving target, noting that while sentiment has improved slightly, the GOP faces a communications challenge.

“People are still overall negative but not quite as negative as they were. … The challenge isn't just simply, are you making it better? Are you getting it better?”

He then pointed to two big winners in off-year elections: New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger.

“Looking at the 2025 election, which had an important outcome, Sherrill ended up winning independents by 13 points and winning by a pretty wide margin. … But the bigger one was actually Spanberger. She won independents by 19. That's the margin that Biden won them in 2020 by 19 while Youngkin won by 8 or 9.”

These Democratic campaigns, he suggested, successfully mobilized independent voters in a way that could deliver blue victories again in 2026.

Later, the two pollsters fielded a number of questions, including one on how the GOP should go about focusing the election on the economy.

“That is the challenge that the White House staff has, in terms of trying to drive the message,” answered Winston. “That is also the challenge to the leadership in the House and the Senate to do the same.”

Asked about issue-based voting and voters' desire to balance power in government, Winston emphasized the importance of uniting around concrete solutions.

“When you get good policy solutions that people agree on, that's also when you can bring your party base and people trying to build majority coalitions together to be actually able to focus and pull off that majority coalition. It's the best way to resolve that dynamic.”

Miller agreed.

“Voters are questioning if Republicans are focused and making progress on the issue that got them elected,” she added. And if they aren't, then they’re going to take another look at the other side. So, checks and balances can play a role, but in this environment where there's such a focus on inflation and cost of living, voters expect more, particularly as independents are growing in size and influence, that also says we want something more out of the political parties.”

When asked about the growing independent electorate and the limitations of traditional two-party ballots, Winston acknowledged the challenge.

“Ultimately, it's a starting point that everybody has to sort of negotiate from. … One of the challenges that's emerged over time, is that around 60 to 65%, of independents have a negative view of both parties.”

Miller concluded with a sobering assessment of Democratic trends and what the 2025 gubernatorial results might signal.

“2024 was a historic low for Democrats. As David was pointing out this percentage that dropped translated into 10 million fewer Democrats. And that erosion started before 2024. That was not only about Kamala Harris. We actually saw that drop starting in 2022.

“So, one of the big questions for this election is going to be did Democrats start showing signs of regaining some of those voters back? What just happened with Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill should be very concerning to Republicans because it shows perhaps, they are starting to gain some of that back. And if they can recreate some of that 2020 old Biden coalition and get some of those voters who might have voted for Republicans back their way, that should be a real alarm for Republicans.”

To listen to The Ripon Society's discussion with David Winston and Myra Miller, please click the link below:
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The Ripon Society is a public policy organization that was founded in 1962 and takes its name from the town where the Republican Party was born in 1854 –Ripon, Wisconsin. One of the main goals of The Ripon Society is to promote the ideas and principles that have made America great and contributed to the GOP’s success. These ideas include keeping our nation secure, keeping taxes low and having a federal government that is smaller, smarter and more accountable to the people.

For more information on The Ripon Society, please visit www.riponsociety.org ([link removed]) .

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The Ripon Society is a non-profit corporation organized under the laws of the District of Columbia. It is exempt from federal income taxation pursuant to section 501 (c) (4) of the Internal Revenue Code. The Ripon Society does not make contributions or expenditures to influence elections. In addition, The Ripon Society does not engage in other election activities, including voter registration, voter identification, get-out-the-vote activity, or generic campaign activity, collectively referred to as "federal election activity" in the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. Donations from corporations, organizations or individuals are accepted.

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