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Crisis Will Lead to Opportunity in Europe
A new bout of geopolitical and trade uncertainty has hit Europe—and markets reacted the way they usually do when the rules of the game could change overnight: they sold first and asked questions later.
Over the weekend, President Trump threatened new tariffs on imports from eight European countries—Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland—linked to the administration’s push for U.S. control of Greenland. The proposed tariff rate was 10% starting February 1, with the warning that it could escalate (reports suggested up to 25% by June if no agreement materialized).
Then came an even more attention-grabbing headline: a threat of 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne, reportedly aimed at pressuring French President Emmanuel Macron to participate in a U.S.-led “Board of Peace.”
That combination—tariff escalation risk plus unpredictable diplomacy—was enough to spark a quick risk-off move in global markets.
Short-term shock, long-term setup
Here’s the key point for investors: headline-driven selloffs often create the cleanest opportunities, especially in high-quality assets that institutions already want to own. And Europe has plenty of those.
In the first wave of selling, European exporters and global consumer brands were hit, particularly in luxury. LVMH fell sharply in European trading as investors weighed tariff risk and the possibility of weaker U.S. demand due to higher end prices.
Spirits and beverage names were also pressured after the 200% tariff threat on French wine and champagne, with companies like Rémy Cointreau among those highlighted as vulnerable to U.S.-pricing disruption.
But the story did not stay “one-way” for long.
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The policy tone shifted—fast
On January 21, 2026, Trump announced what he described as a “framework” with NATO related to Greenland and said he would withdraw the planned tariffs that had been set to begin February 1. Markets responded positively, with reports describing a rebound in European equities as investors priced in reduced immediate trade-war risk.
That does not mean the uncertainty is gone. It does mean something important for investors: the market just showed you the playbook.
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Tariff threats can trigger abrupt selloffs.
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Clarification/de-escalation can trigger equally abrupt rebounds.
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The best entries often appear when the headlines look worst and liquidity thins out.
If you expect more headline volatility in 2026—around tariffs, diplomacy, or retaliation risk—then your goal is not to “predict the next tweet.” Your goal is to have a repeatable plan for buying quality exposure when fear temporarily discounts it.
Three practical ways to position for a Europe opportunity
1) Target “pricing power” European exporters on weakness
If tariffs ever do become reality, the businesses best positioned to defend margins are the ones with brand strength and pricing power—the ability to raise prices or adjust product mix without destroying demand.
That’s why luxury is often counterintuitive: the customers most likely to buy premium products are also the customers least likely to change behavior because prices rose modestly. The market knows this long-term—but in the short-term, luxury stocks can still get hit on “headline math” and uncertainty, creating potential entry points.
What to watch:
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Any signs of policy re-escalation (tariffs returning to the table)
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FX moves (a stronger euro can be a headwind for exporters; a weaker euro can be a cushion)
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Corporate commentary on U.S. demand elasticity (how sensitive customers are to price changes)
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2) Prefer diversified exposure if you don’t want single-stock risk
If you’d rather avoid idiosyncratic risk (earnings surprises, brand-specific issues, or company-level execution), Europe-focused ETFs can provide broad exposure while letting you benefit from “crisis-driven discounts.”
Here are three liquid options that can fit slightly different investor preferences:
ETF: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (SYM: VGK)
VGK is a low-cost, broad Europe fund (net expense ratio widely listed at 0.06%) and is commonly used as a core Europe allocation.
Recent price: about $86.26.
ETF: iShares Europe ETF (SYM: IEV)
IEV tracks a broad Europe benchmark (S&P Europe 350 Index) and lists an expense ratio of 0.60%. It reports 364 holdings and a semi-annual distribution schedule.
Recent price: about $70.60.
On distributions: sources tracking fund payouts show a $0.7513 payment on December 19, 2025 and $1.1219 on June 20, 2025 (semi-annual cadence).
ETF: SPDR Portfolio Europe ETF (SYM: SPEU)
SPEU is another low-cost approach (gross expense ratio 0.07%) and is designed for broad Western Europe exposure, reporting 1,765 holdings and quarterly distributions.
Recent price: about $53.78.
3) Use a disciplined “headline-volatility” buying plan
If you believe this situation remains fluid, the most effective approach is often staged buying rather than trying to nail a single entry.
A simple framework:
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Starter position on the first “panic dip” (when spreads widen and headlines dominate)
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Add if volatility creates a second leg down without a fundamental break
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Stop adding once policy clarity improves and prices begin to recover (you can let the position work)
This matters because trade disputes and tariff narratives can be reflexive. The threat alone can reprice assets quickly; the removal of the threat can do the opposite, just as we saw after the January 21 “framework” headlines.
Bottom Line
Trade headlines can be loud. Markets can overreact. And when they do, that’s often when long-term opportunity shows up.
If history is any guide, many trade standoffs fade faster than markets initially fear—especially once policymakers begin signaling frameworks, pauses, or negotiations. For investors with a plan, the recent European pullback can be viewed less as a reason to retreat—and more as a moment to get positioned intelligently.
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Are there any other European stocks or funds that you're buying right now? What other sectors of the market are you currently interested in? Hit "reply" to this email and let us know your thoughts!
