Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for July 27, 2020

Newfound Democratic Leverage on the Relief Bill
Also, baseball on the verge of striking out

 

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows' ability to forge consensus is
about as promising as his ability to wear a facemask. (Manuel Balce
Ceneta/AP Photo)

First Response

After a week of infighting, we are supposed to expect a Senate
Republican coronavirus relief bill today-maybe. A draft was not
circulated over the weekend, which you'd normally expect. The role of
both Mark Meadows and Steve Mnuchin have been called into question
,
both in opposite directions: Meadows seen as too willing to blow up a
deal, Mnuchin as too willing to make one. Add to this Trump's usual
predilection toward self-dealing-he wanted a line in the bill funding
a new FBI headquarters

just around the corner from his Trump hotel in downtown Washington-and
you have the makings of a disaster.

Here's what we know
,
and it's not much: Another round of $1,200 stimulus checks will be in
the bill. There's a reduction of the unemployment benefits enhancement
to a 70 percent replacement of past wages, which we were earlier told
was impossible to do on an individual basis but which everyone is taking
to mean a $200 a week boost rather than the current $600 a week
(Republicans are apparently pushing for an individualized replacement
rate
,
which will bust every state UI system in America). There are "signing
bonuses" for re-employment and retention, as well as a tax credit for
hiring. Add to that $100 billion for schools, some manner of resumption
of the Paycheck Protection Program (a second round for troubled
businesses seems likely), and more money for testing and vaccines, and
you're around the $1 trillion target.

Economic adviser Larry Kudlow also said there would be an extension of
the federal eviction moratorium, which expired on Friday. This comes as
a surprise, though there's no indication of how long that will last,
and of course that federal moratorium is fairly narrow as it only
impacts buildings with federally backed mortgages. And expect an
inclusion of the corporate liability release, frankly the only thing
Mitch McConnell seems to want.

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The problem for Republicans, as Lindsey Graham pointed out this morning
,
is that "half the GOP will vote against whatever the leadership comes
up with." The leadership appears dimly aware that any failure on this
bill will cause far more electoral pain for Republicans rather than
Democrats. Yet this admission means that any bill will need substantial
Democratic support in order to pass.

The White House has even floated on more than one occasion

the idea of a stopgap bill just to extend the unemployment benefits,
which for most states have already expired. Right now, without
legislative action there will be no federal enhancement in the next
check, a benefit cut of between 60 and 85 percent for recipients,
depending on the state. Asking for a short-term extension indicates that
Republicans have such little confidence

in finding any common ground that they know they must come hat in hand
to the Democrats.

It's not clear whether the administration is asking to extend the full
$600 a week or this 70 percent replacement rate thing. Democrats should
have an obvious answer: if we're going to extend the unemployment
piece at any short-term level, we're going to do it in full. And while
we're at it, let's fully fund the post office and vote by mail
elections and a second PPP round for struggling businesses and the
eviction moratorium and state and local government aid before budgets
are set and layoffs announced and backup insurance for workers who have
lost it and everything else with looming deadlines, too.

In other words, the "narrow" bill should be the bill. Democrats have
the advantage here if the White House is asking for a short-term
extension. They should take it.

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Odds and Sods

Thanks to Pam Martens for this great review of Monopolized
.

As mentioned before, if you tweet to @ddayen
with a photo of your copy of the book, I
will send you a personalized and signed bookplate that you can put
inside. It's my way of doing a virtual booksigning. I only have a few
bookplates left, so tweet me your photo of Monopolized today!

Also today at the Prospect site, William Lazonick and Matt Hopkins
explain

where all the money for pandemic preparedness went: into corporate stock
buybacks.

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'Cause It's One, Two, Three Strikes You're Out

Watching baseball players on empty fields throughout the weekend was a
surreal and kind of a harrowing experience. They were playing in many
states where the virus is surging, and while fielders are certainly
spread out enough to distance, the dugout looked more like business as
usual. And these players are traveling from series to series, not locked
into a controlled environment like the NBA, where the bubble is working.

It was a matter of time before we saw an outbreak, and it happened with
the Miami Marlins

in Philadelphia. Jose Urena, who was supposed to pitch against the
Phillies the Sunday rubber match, was a late scratch. The team didn't
get on the plane home after their game. At least four players and as
many as twelve (40 percent of the roster) have tested positive, along
with two coaches
. The
Marlins' first home game against Baltimore has already been postponed.

This will just be replicated all season, under current conditions in the
country. You can't have dozens of people traveling in tandem to a
bunch of different cities without introducing risk. Major League
Baseball is holding an emergency meeting today
, and
don't be surprised if they shut down the season three games in. It was
a terrible idea given the state of the nation. A bubble-type environment
seems to be able to work, but not this pretense that you can just hold a
normal schedule without the fans.

Also there's no real reason to be expending this level of energy right
now on what is essentially a frivolity. Simply to hold on to television
money, baseball owners put everyone associated with the game in harm's
way. The country has much bigger needs than this. We can always watch
the Korean League if we need an escape.

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

122
.

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* National security advisor Robert O'Brien has coronavirus
.
(Bloomberg)

* The wife of Georgia Senate candidate Jon Ossoff has coronavirus
,
and he's quarantining. (The Hill)

* However, Ossoff's team came up with the ad of the cycle
so far.
(Ossoff campaign ad)

* Financial markets, meanwhile, experiencing a "melt-up
."
(Wall Street Journal)

* Retail businesses are wasting enormous amounts of money

on "deep cleaning," which does nothing for safety from the virus.
(The Atlantic)

* Hospitals are signing patients up to vote
.
(New York Times)

* Sinclair Broadcasting postpones its airing

of a segment from the discredited film "Plandemic." (Baltimore Sun)

* Texas bar owners reopened their establishments

over the weekend in protest. It's not looking great folks. (WFAA)

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