[link removed] [[link removed]] JANUARY 22, 2026
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A new story predicts record expenditures on political ads in the 2026 midterms, thanks to early spending, new tech and rising costs. And this week, we break down lobbying behavior by countries that have been invited to join the Gaza Board of Peace.
Political ad spending is projected to reach a new high in 2026 midterms
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The 2026 elections are on track to become the most expensive midterm cycle in U.S. history, driven in large part by huge increases in political advertising.
According to AdImpact’s Political Projections 2025–2026 [[link removed]] report, spending on political advertising is estimated to reach $10.8 billion in the next cycle, over 20 percent higher than in 2022. While some of the projected increase can be attributed to rising advertising costs, campaigns are expected to spend funds earlier in the cycle and place a greater reliance on fast-growing media technology such as connected TV, further boosting expenditures.
Fundraising for congressional elections surged in the three most recent elections, ranging from $8.9 billion to $9.5 billion [[link removed]] , a significant leap from the $5.7 billion raised in 2018. According to analysis [[link removed]] from OpenSecrets, the Wesleyan Media Project, and the Brennan Center, more than $1.9 billion of the $9.5 billion spent in 2024 was dedicated solely to online advertisement.
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The AdImpact report also found that independent spending by committees supporting or opposing candidates is starting earlier than in previous midterms, concentrated in a small number of competitive states and districts.
Spending in both Senate and House races will reach record highs in 2026, even as the number of competitive contests continues to decrease. The AdImpact report projects Senate spending will reach $2.8 billion; this figure will beat the Senate spending record set in 2024 and represent a nearly 21 percent increase over 2022. House spending is also reaching new highs at $2.2 billion, crossing the $2 billion mark for the first time in history.
The factors
* Early spending: AdImpact found that historically, only 10 percent to 15 percent of total election-cycle spending occurred during non-election years. By August 2025, however, political advertisers had already spent roughly $900 million; this is 33 percent more than the $675 million spent at the same point in 2023 and 58 percent more than the $572 million spent in 2021.
* New technology: As more American households move away from traditional broadcast television, campaigns are following voters onto streaming platforms that claim to have more targeted reach and more detailed audience data. Although CTV is expected to be the only media channel to see increased spending compared with the 2024 cycle, it can be prohibitively expensive for lesser-known candidates who raise less funds than high-profile opponents. Many smaller campaigns are seeking out alternatives.
* Increased spending on state elections: AdImpact estimates that political ad spending on gubernatorial and state legislative contests increased by 50 percent in the 2024 cycle. Seven states (including Florida, Illinois, Michigan and Texas) are expected to see more than $50 million in legislative spending for the 2026 cycle. And high-profile ballot propositions (see California and Florida this year) are transforming traditionally state-level contests into centers of national attention.
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Chart of the week
Foreign lobbying by 'Board of Peace for Gaza' invitees
Just for fun, we pulled lobbying numbers for the nations invited to the Gaza peace board. [[link removed]] What did we learn? They represent 67% of overall lobbying by other countries in 2024 and a whopping 88% last year. What's interesting is some of the invitees haven't lobbied at all, demonstrating not every decision is linked to money.
Table showing annual lobbying totals by country [[link removed]]
A number of invited countries did not lobby the United States during the first three quarters of 2025: Albania, Argentina, Bahrain, Belarus, Brazil, Egypt, France, Germany, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Jordan, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Paraguay, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
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What else we're reading
Justice Department leadership pushed FBI to investigate campaign contributions to Minnesota officials [[link removed]] (CNN)
Our top takeaways from Nevada candidates’ 2025 campaign fundraising [[link removed]] (The Nevada Independent)
Bloomberg drops $750K to boost Bennet in Dem governor primary [[link removed]] (Axios )
Tracking the money behind ballot questions [[link removed]] (The Boston Globe)
OpenSecrets in the News
See our media citations from outlets around the nation this week:
With a nudge from industry, Congress takes aim at California recycling laws [[link removed]] (Los Angeles Times)
During the 2023-2024 campaign cycle, the oil and gas industry was Weber’s largest contributor, with more than $130,000 from companies such as Philips 66, the American Chemistry Council, Koch Inc. and Valero, according to OpenSecrets.org.
New York Playbook PM [[link removed]] (Politico)
In total, Tenney has spent over $6,700 this year on gifts for her donors, according to her own financial filings. Brendan Glavin, director of insights at the congressional watchdog OpenSecrets, had a different view than Weiner on the matter. “Generally speaking, the FEC guidance on this is that you are allowed to buy gifts for donors as long as there’s no personal use involved,” he said.
Democrats Ask SEC to Explain Lack of Enforcement on Trump-Linked Crypto Entities [[link removed]] (Gizmodo)
The crypto industry spent a record amount of money on the 2024 election cycle, totaling $133 million, with a significant portion allocated to Trump’s presidential campaign and other crypto-supporting candidates nationwide, according to OpenSecrets. Trump embraced the crypto industry in a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, where he said he would embrace the technology and make the United States the crypto capital of the world.
Crypto industry spent tens of millions influencing now-delayed cryptocurrency regulations [[link removed]] (Washington Examiner)
Players in the digital asset space have been locked in a heated influence war with the banking industry, which itself spends big on political donations and K Street retainers, over the Clarity Act. Much like the crypto industry, commercial banks provide large amounts of financial support to lawmakers sitting on the committees tasked with regulating them. Data compiled by OpenSecrets also show that commercial banks spent roughly $56.7 million lobbying in 2025, and while the Clarity Act wasn’t the only item they paid operatives to shape, it does appear on many of their lobbying disclosures.
Trump donor, dark money largely funding Maine referendum drives [[link removed]] (Portland Press Herald)
Uihlein and his wife donated about $138 million to various federal political groups during the 2024 cycle, according to OpenSecrets. His primary Super PAC, Restoration PAC, spent about $35 million supporting Trump and attacking his opponent, former Vice President Kamala Harris. It also spent $3.1 million opposing Rep. Jared Golden of Maine, D-2nd District.
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