Independents are disproportionately influential in competitive House districts and swing states, particularly in midterm elections.
͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­
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Trump Faces Nearly 70% Disapproval from Independent Voters

Independents are disproportionately influential in competitive House districts and swing states, particularly in midterm elections.

The Intellectualist
Jan 22
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Brian Daitzman is the Editor of The Intellectualist. Subscribe to his Substack.

Illustration by Riley Levine

President Donald Trump is bleeding support across the political spectrum. With approval stalled at 39 percent and nearly 7 in 10 independent voters disapproving, the political middle that once sustained his power has largely closed. Even on the economy, voters see little progress. At this stage, coalition math replaces momentum, leverage evaporates, and governing becomes an exercise in containment rather than choice.


President Donald Trump is entering a critical phase of his second term with sharply diminished support from independent voters and no clear policy area providing political insulation, according to a new CNN/SSRS poll that shows broad dissatisfaction extending beyond any single issue.

Overall, 39 percent of Americans say they approve of Trump’s job performance, while 61 percent disapprove. While approval in the high 30s is not unprecedented, the poll suggests that Trump’s weakness is unusually consistent across voter groups and issue areas that tend to decide close elections.

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The most striking finding appears among independents. Just under 3 in 10 approve of Trump’s performance, while roughly 7 in 10 disapprove, a net approval of about -40 points.

That marks a sharp shift from the 2024 election, when independents were roughly evenly divided between Trump and his opponent, suggesting a significant erosion in support since he returned to office. By contrast, nearly 9 in 10 Republicans continue to approve of Trump’s job performance, underscoring how sharply his support drops outside his core base. Independents are disproportionately influential in competitive House districts and swing states, particularly in midterm elections, where turnout patterns and ticket-splitting often determine outcomes. When approval among that group falls below one-third, presidents typically face a sharply narrowed range of political options, regardless of continued loyalty from partisan supporters.

That vulnerability is compounded by the absence of a compensating strength. Presidents sometimes offset weak overall approval by maintaining stronger standing on a signature issue, such as the economy or national security. In this poll, Trump does not appear to benefit from such a cushion. Approval of his handling of the economy is also 39 percent, matching his overall job rating. His ratings on foreign policy and management of the federal government fall within a similarly narrow range, indicating that no single policy area is insulating him from broader dissatisfaction...

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