STRATEGY MEMO

To: [email protected]
From: Team Schumer
RE: Senate Democrats Carve Out Path to Senate Majority in 2026

Democrats have built a strong foundation for electoral success and created the path to take back the Senate majority in 2026.

This dynamic did not emerge overnight. It’s been driven by recruiting strong Democratic candidates across the country, discouraging formidable Republican candidates from entering Senate races, and holding Republicans accountable for failing to address the issues that matter to voters.

1️⃣ Senate Democrats Are Expanding the Battleground Map

A year ago, Democrats had a narrow offensive map.

Now, thanks to major candidate recruitment, Democrats have multiple paths to flipping the Senate.

🔵 In Alaska, former Representative Mary Peltola entered the race as the only candidate who could pose a threat to Senator Dan Sullivan. Early polling shows the race statistically tied.

🔵 In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown’s decision to run puts this special election in play. Brown is the only Democrat to win a statewide race in Ohio in nearly 20 years, and some recent polling shows Brown holding a small lead.

🔵 In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is a heavyweight candidate who has never lost an election. Cooper has already built a formidable campaign, maintaining a lead in early polls.

🔵 In New Hampshire, Representative Chris Pappas has a record of winning tough races and he maintains a lead against both of his potential Republican opponents in early polling.

That’s the kind of slate that forces Republicans to play defense everywhere.

2️⃣ Republicans Are Stuck With Weak Candidates And Messy Primaries

Republicans started the cycle bragging about expanding their majority.

Instead, they’ve stumbled into candidate quality problems, expensive primaries, and recruitment failures across the board.

🔴 In Michigan, Republicans are stuck with flawed candidate Mike Rogers after he underperformed Trump by over 100,000 votes in 2024 as Trump carried the state.

🔴 In Georgia, Republicans’ failure to recruit Governor Brian Kemp to run fundamentally changed the trajectory of the race.

🔴 In Maine, Senator Susan Collins’ numbers have declined precipitously since 2020, and she is in a much worse position with Mainers now than she was at this point in the 2020 cycle.

🔴 In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst’s retirement, despite intense Republican pressure to keep her in the race, puts the seat in play. Democrats significantly overperformed in three Iowa special elections last year.

🔴 In Texas, a chaotic primary has become Republicans’ biggest headache. National Republicans have spent tens of millions of dollars to prop up weak incumbent John Cornyn against extreme primary opponents.

3️⃣ Our Message Is Breaking Through – And Already Winning Elections

Senate Republicans’ toxic agenda has generated backlash from voters. In special elections last year, Democrats overperformed significantly, driven by persuasion and turnout. And one theme keeps coming up over and over:

Affordability. Health care. Costs.

Republicans keep voting for higher costs and health care cuts – and voters are noticing.

The bottom line: An expanded battleground map with strong Democratic campaigns, weak Republican opponents, and a favorable environment and campaign issue set lay the groundwork for Democratic victories in 2026.