[[link removed]]

CHAVISMO – CAN VENEZUELA’S LEFTIST IDEOLOGY BECOME US FRIENDLY
AND SURVIVE?  
[[link removed]]


 

Paul Webster Hare
January 19, 2026
The Conversation
[[link removed]]


*
[[link removed]]
*
*
[[link removed]]

_ Despite years of U.S. antagonism toward Venezuela’s government,
the broader political coalition that Maduro led was allowed to remain
intact under the guidance of longtime Maduro ally Delcy Rodríguez.
What does this mean? _

Could Interim President Delcy Rodriguez oversee Chavismo’s reform?,
Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images

 

 

When the Trump administration sent in a team of U.S. special forces
[[link removed]]
on Jan. 3, 2026, to extract Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the
operation fell short of full-scale regime change.

Despite years of U.S. antagonism toward Venezuela’s government, the
broader political coalition that Maduro led was allowed to remain
intact under the guidance of longtime Maduro ally Delcy Rodríguez
[[link removed]].
And it now seemingly has the tacit support of President Donald Trump
– who has supported a transition to Maduro’s deputy
[[link removed]]
over the option of pushing for opposition leader María Corina Machado
[[link removed]]
to assume control.

As such, it marks a new phase, rather than an end, to the left-wing
political ideology of Chavismo.

An ever-evolving Bolivarian revolution?

Now under its third stewardship in Rodríguez, Chavismo has
[[link removed]]
already undergone change since being rolled out in Venezuela by Hugo
Chávez.

Chávez himself drew heavily on Fidel Castro’s Cuba in fomenting the
ideology, which has ruled over Venezuela since Chávez came to power
in a 1998 presidential election
[[link removed]].

In particular, he borrowed from Cuba’s model of state controls and a
blend of socialism, with a brand of Latin American nationalism and
strident anti-imperialism. That included a wide-ranging platform of
social welfare and programs to distribute land and money to the poor
[[link removed]]
– financed by Venezuela’s vast oil reserves while the price of
crude was high.

[Two men joke and laugh with each other.]
Cuban President Fidel Castro with President of Venezuela Hugo Chávez
in Havana, Cuba on Feb. 3, 2006. Sven Creutzmann/Mambo Photography via
Getty Images
[[link removed]]

All of that is anathema to much of the political beliefs of the U.S
Republican Party, particularly in Florida, and rubs up against both
the MAGA wing and the coterie of anti-leftist foreign policy hawks
[[link removed]]
that surround the president.

As such, the Trump administration’s willingness to give Chavismo a
chance under Rodríguez is a startling difference from Dec. 19, 2025,
when Sec. of State Marco Rubio gave a long explanation
[[link removed]]
of why he thought Venezuela was “an illegitimate regime that openly
cooperates with terrorist elements.”

Not just Maduro himself, note, but the “regime” itself.

As a former deputy head of the U.K. mission to Venezuela
[[link removed]], I
discussed politics with Chávez himself back in 1995. I had served in
Portugal and the example of a left-wing Portuguese military ousting a
right-wing dictator
[[link removed]]
to promote a return to democracy was something that appealed to
Chávez.

In opting to allow the Chavista former deputy to Maduro, Rodríguez,
to take over the country rather than push for the immediate
installation of María Corina Machado – whose proxy won the last
Venezuelan election
[[link removed]]
in 2024, according to international verification
[[link removed]]
– Trump is betting that that a reformed Chavismo can uniquely
provide the stability that is required to rebuild the Venezuelan oil
industry. And that appears to be his immediate priority
[[link removed]].

Rodríguez has succeeded, according to reports, in convincing Trump
that immediate elections are not a priority
[[link removed]],
meaning that the Venezuelan people must wait further for their choices
to made.

But Chavismo has gone through various iterations since the 1990s, and
it might well do so now.

Chavismo’s evolution

At one point, Chavismo had been a more democratic venture. Chávez was
elected in 1998 fairly, having been pardoned in 1994
[[link removed]]
for an earlier and unsuccessful illegal power grab. And at first
Chávez seems committed to the idea of a democratic process. Moreover,
like in Cuba after the revolution, he prioritized developing socialist
programs in areas like health care and housing.

But how Chávez viewed the sustainability of his government changed
markedly in 2002. That’s when the U.S. supported a coup attempt
[[link removed]] that
challenged Chavez’s authority.

In surviving that coup attempt, he gained credibility with Cuba’s
Fidel Castro who had at first doubted Chavez’ abilities.

Castro became his mentor in all policy decisions, particularly in
helping craft his international profile.

At the time, Cuba was facing a more hawkish U.S. president on Latin
American leftism
[[link removed]]
in George W. Bush. So Chávez decided that Chavismo needed to become
more anti-American, and the high price of oil enabled him to fund
domestic and international largesse.

‘Competitive authoritarianism’

The system that the new Chávez presided over evolved gradually, and
under Castro tutelage it became increasingly undemocratic.

Chávez was advised by the Cuban government on how to develop what
critics have termed a system of “competitive authoritarianism
[[link removed]].”
This involved extending presidential terms, attacking the media and
tweaking the constitution to further centralize power.

In a tried-and-tested authoritarian measure, Chávez packed the
judiciary
[[link removed]]
with loyalists, and turned the electoral commission into a rubber
stamp for the incumbent government.

These measures proved the lynchpin of Maduro’s election fraud of
2024, when the courts refused to verify
[[link removed]]
the QR codes of receipts
[[link removed]]
produced by the opposition showing that they, not Maduro, had won.

[A poster showing a man's face is next to a lectern with a flag on
it.]
Maduro is a man gone, but not forgotten. Ritesh Shukla/Getty Images
[[link removed]]

Under Maduro, Chavismo only got more repressive and authoritarian.
Lacking the charisma of Chavez – who died in 2013 – and facing
dwindling oil revenue with which to fund social and welfare programs,
Maduro turned to the suppression of human and voting rights
[[link removed]]
to maintain power as the country spiraled into the economic crisis and
gang violence.

And to compensate for reduced oil revenues, Maduro turned to funding
from drug and human trafficking, gold smuggling and, perhaps above all
recently, crypto-trading
[[link removed]].

A post-Trump makeover?

Rodríguez is no break from this Chavismo past, having served under
both Chávez and Maduro.

Yet, she is apparently willing to work in cooperation with Washington.
And the Trump administration has seemingly given her its blessing for
now, evidenced most recently by a high-profile Jan. 15 visit
[[link removed]]
to Caracas by the head of the CIA.

The basis of this apparent bargain is oil. Rodríguez has long
experience of dealing with international oil companies – and her
handling of oil production is reportedly a factor in her having been
accepted by the U.S. administration.

The Chávez and Maduro governments advanced the state’s control of
oil and other sectors, such as goldmining in Venezuela
[[link removed]].

Under Rodriguez, it is likely to be reversed to appease Washington –
opening up again to foreign companies
[[link removed]]
and especially U.S. investment. Such a move would inevitably prove a
wedge between Venezuela and Cuba.

Under Chávez and Maduro, Venezuela gave oil at heavily discounted
prices to Cuba
[[link removed]].
In return, Cuban sent its doctors, advisers and security personnel.

This arrangement will likely be terminated under a new arrangement
between Caracas and Washington. Its cessation would force Cuba to look
for alternative oil supplies – probably from Mexico, Brazil and
Colombia.

Yet Chavistas will likely be advising Cuba to do a similar deal with
Trump. Cuba does not have oil, but it does have big nickel deposits
[[link removed]]
and massive upside potential for U.S businesses in tourism. Cuba has
only one 18-hole golf course, and years ago Trump, as a real estate
developer, commissioned a study
[[link removed]] on
building golf resorts on the island. Such deals might also save
“Fidelismo
[[link removed]].”

But where else might Chavismo go now? Will Rodríguez reverse the
trend toward autocracy, and commit to future elections within a
defined time period?

Will she also commit to dismantle “colectivos,” the militias of
Chavismo that for years have suppressed opposition? And will she
commit to returning the military to a national body, rather than the
protector of one political movement?

Looking ahead, Trump’s prolonging of Chavismo is a political gamble
in Florida – a state where many Latin Republican voters despise the
system and any dealing with socialist governments. Trump ran in 2016
partly on a platform of opposing Obama’s deal with Cuba of 2014
[[link removed]],
claiming he would never deal with “socialist dictators.”

Can Chavismo survive?

The leaders of Chavismo have long been pragmatic negotiators, with a
reputation among critics for breaking promises. In October 2023, for
example, the Biden administration helped iron out the Barbados
Agreement
[[link removed]]
with Maduro and Venezuelan opposition groups, providing for free and
fair elections in return for sanctions relief.

Yet the U.S. soon after accused Maduro of reneging on the deal by
disqualifying the chosen opposition candidate
[[link removed]],
María Corina Machado. Now-acting President Rodríguez is still
surrounded by all the stakeholders in Chavismo who concocted the
scheme to deny the opposition’s victory – save, of course, Maduro
himself.

Nonetheless, Chavismo had shown a strong instinct for survival. And
Delcy Rodríguez has learned what many others leaders have: Chavismo
can succeed in flattering, or at least appeasing, Trump. She has also
learned that Trump appears more interested in oil than in restoring
democracy
[[link removed]].

===

Paul Webster Hare 
[[link removed]]

Master Lecturer and Interim Director of Latin American Studies, Boston
University

* Venezuela; Delcy Rodriguez; Nicholas Maduro; Trump Administration;
Oil;
[[link removed]]

*
[[link removed]]
*
*
[[link removed]]

 

 

 

INTERPRET THE WORLD AND CHANGE IT

 

 

Submit via web
[[link removed]]

Submit via email
Frequently asked questions
[[link removed]]
Manage subscription
[[link removed]]
Visit xxxxxx.org
[[link removed]]

Bluesky [[link removed]]

Facebook [[link removed]]

 




[link removed]

To unsubscribe, click the following link:
[link removed]