Don’t chase the hype - use these two “core” copper vehicles to
manage risk. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏
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 ͏  ͏  ͏



 

[Morning Watchlist]

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TWO SOLID, SAFE WAYS TO TRADE COPPER IN 2026

Copper is increasingly becoming one of the most important “real
economy” commodities of the decade—and 2026 is shaping up to be
another pivotal year.

The reason is straightforward: DEMAND IS BEING PULLED HIGHER BY
MULTIPLE STRUCTURAL TRENDS AT THE SAME TIME—power-grid expansion,
data centers and AI infrastructure, electrification, EV adoption, and
ongoing industrial demand that never really goes away. On the supply
side, the industry faces long development timelines, rising costs, and
declining ore grades—exactly the mix that can create sustained
tightness.

BHP has been particularly vocal about the long-term demand trajectory.
In its published research, the company has estimated that copper use
in data centers will rise dramatically by 2050, and that this uplift
is comparable to the combined annual output of the world’s four
largest copper mines.

At the same time, third-party research is adding urgency around the
supply gap. S&P Global has warned that copper faces a large potential
deficit by 2040 if supply does not expand meaningfully, with AI
infrastructure and electrification cited as key demand drivers.

That is the fundamental backdrop: STRUCTURAL DEMAND TAILWINDS MEETING
REAL-WORLD CONSTRAINTS. It is also why you are seeing large miners
prioritize copper exposure in strategic moves and M&A discussions.

But even with a bullish long-term picture, copper does not move in a
straight line. Cycles happen. Prices overshoot. Positioning gets
crowded. And headlines—particularly around tariffs and
inventories—can create sharp swings.

So the question for 2026 is not “Is copper important?” It is: HOW
DO YOU TRADE COPPER IN A SAFER, SIMPLER WAY—WITHOUT TAKING
UNNECESSARY SINGLE-ASSET OR SINGLE-MINE RISK?

Here are two approaches that fit that description.

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COMPANY: FREEPORT-MCMORAN (SYM: FCX)
OWN A HIGH-QUALITY COPPER BELLWETHER

If you want direct equity exposure to copper (and a company that
institutions already treat as a copper proxy), FREEPORT-MCMORAN
remains one of the most widely followed names in the space.

As of JANUARY 14, 2026, FCX was trading around $59.81. That price
matters because it reflects something important: the market has been
willing to re-rate high-quality copper exposure as the medium-term
demand narrative strengthens.

Fundamentally, Freeport has also delivered the kind of results that
keep investors engaged. For its Q3 2025 quarter, Freeport reported EPS
OF $0.50 and REVENUE OF $6.97 BILLION, with revenue up 2.7% YEAR OVER
YEAR—a notable beat versus expectations.

Analyst sentiment has also improved when copper price assumptions
rise. For example, reports in late 2025 noted HSBC UPGRADING FCX TO
BUY AND LIFTING ITS PRICE TARGET TO $50, citing stronger copper and
gold pricing assumptions. (Targets can change; the key takeaway is the
direction of revisions when commodity assumptions move.)

WHY THIS IS A “SAFER” COPPER STOCK

No copper miner is risk-free. But FCX offers a few characteristics
that generally make it a more conservative way to gain copper leverage
than smaller producers:

*
SCALE AND ASSET DIVERSITY: Large miners can often absorb operational
volatility better than single-asset names.

*
LIQUIDITY: FCX is heavily traded, which matters if markets get choppy.

*
INSTITUTIONAL COVERAGE: Better information flow and tighter spreads
than obscure miners.

THE 2026 COPPER TWIST: INVENTORIES, TARIFFS, AND BACKWARDATION

One of the more underappreciated near-term catalysts for copper
pricing has been the TIGHTNESS IN VISIBLE INVENTORIES AND THE
STRUCTURE OF FUTURES CURVES.

In mid-2025, Mining.com described copper as experiencing “historic
backwardation,” driven by rapidly falling inventories and tariff
expectations, with spot copper trading at a substantial premium to
three-month futures—an indicator of tight nearby supply.

By early 2026, Reuters was still highlighting how copper inventories
and trade flows were being distorted by tariff arbitrage dynamics,
including shifts of metal toward the U.S.

For investors, the key point is not to memorize the jargon. It is
this: WHEN INVENTORIES ARE TIGHT AND THE MARKET STARTS PAYING A
PREMIUM FOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY, COPPER EQUITIES CAN REACT
QUICKLY—BOTH UP AND DOWN.

A PRACTICAL WAY TO TRADE IT “SAFELY”

If your goal is to participate without getting whipsawed:

*
SCALE IN RATHER THAN “ALL IN.” Build a position in tranches so you
can add on pullbacks.

*
DEFINE YOUR RISK BEFORE YOU BUY. Decide what invalidates your thesis
(e.g., a break of a key support level, or a change in demand
indicators).

*
TREAT FCX AS A CORE COPPER HOLDING. This is typically a “hold
through volatility” vehicle—not a one-week flip.

Bottom line: FCX is a straightforward way to express a copper view in
2026, with the balance sheet, liquidity, and institutional attention
that can make it a relatively safer single-stock choice.

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ETF: GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF (SYM: COPX)
DIVERSIFY COPPER MINER RISK WITH ONE TRADE:

If you like copper but do not want the risk of any one mine, one
country, or one management team, the cleaner solution is a miners
ETF—specifically COPX.

COPX is designed to provide exposure to a basket of global copper
mining companies. According to Global X, as of JANUARY 13, 2026, COPX
had:

*
TOTAL EXPENSE RATIO: 0.65%

*
NUMBER OF HOLDINGS: 41

*
TOP HOLDINGS including KGHM Polska Miedz, Lundin Mining, Boliden,
FREEPORT-MCMORAN, Glencore, and Southern Copper, among others

As of JANUARY 14, 2026, COPX was trading around $81.91.

WHY THIS IS OFTEN THE “SAFER” COPPER TRADE

A single miner can be derailed by issues unrelated to copper
prices—labor disputes, permitting delays, operational incidents,
geopolitical changes, or local taxes and royalties.

An ETF helps reduce that idiosyncratic risk because:

*
YOU ARE NOT BETTING ON ONE ASSET.

*
YOU DIVERSIFY ACROSS GEOGRAPHIES AND BUSINESS MODELS.

*
YOU STILL RETAIN MEANINGFUL LEVERAGE TO COPPER SENTIMENT, because
miners’ earnings tend to improve when copper pricing and demand
expectations rise.

COPX also provides a convenient way to own both established names and
mid-tier miners without having to research dozens of balance sheets.

HOW COPX FITS INTO A 2026 GAME PLAN

If you believe copper demand continues to strengthen through
2026—driven by AI, electrification, and grid upgrades—COPX can act
as the “broad beta” expression of that thesis.

This matters because the long-term demand narrative is not coming from
one source. BHP’s work emphasizes the scale of data center copper
demand growth, including estimates of a rise from about 0.5 million
tonnes to around 3 million tonnes by 2050. And S&P Global’s
projections emphasize that, absent major supply additions, the market
could face a meaningful deficit in future years.

At the same time, the industry’s capital needs are enormous.
BloombergNEF has projected that the mining sector will require
trillions of dollars of investment by 2050 to meet energy-transition
metals demand (figures vary depending on methodology and scenario).

Bottom line: COPX is a simple way to express a copper thesis while
managing the risk that comes with picking “the wrong” miner.

-------------------------

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