16 January 2026

As the protests on the streets continue in Iran against the bloodthirsty regime in Tehran, Western countries are uncertain how to respond. The EU has announced it is “monitoring the situation”. Pressure is mounting on the EU to put the IRGC on the EU terror list. Christoph Heusgen, former head of the Munich Security Conference, said on Thursday that the European Union’s failure to list Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization was a sign of weakness. “That the Revolutionary Guards are still not listed is a sign of weakness by the European Union,” Heusgen told German public radio Deutschlandfunk.
 

The US has imposed sanctions on Iran’s top leaders, but President Trump has put off his threatened military action against the Ayatollahs.

Protests have broken out in every one of Iran’s 31 provinces. Thousands of protesters have reportedly been killed and many more arrested. Despite the fact that the internet has closed, horrific stories of cruelty are emerging from Iran.

President Trump had indicated this week that the US would respond with force against the regime’s oppression of its own people. However, he has backed off from taking military action. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, suggested on Thursday that the Trump administration prefers a diplomatic resolution, rather than a military one. Asked in an interview at the Israeli-American Council conference in Florida if he thinks a US military strike against Iran is likely, Witkoff responded, “I hope there’s a diplomatic resolution. I really do.”

Witkoff said a diplomatic agreement with Iran would address four issues: “(1) nuclear enrichment, (2) missiles — they have to cut back on their inventory; (3) the actual [nuclear] material that they have, which is roughly 2000 kilograms enriched anywhere between 3.67 percent and 60%; and (4) the proxies.”

The regime is the weakest it has ever been. The Iranian economy is on the verge of collapse. Drought is bringing the country to its knees. It is a question of when and how, not whether, the regime will fall.

However, many questions remain about how a regime change could be effected without the country descending into a civil war. There are many different groups and nations within Iran. They are not coordinated, and there is no agreement about what a new Iran would look like, and how to manage a transition to a new regime.

New developments in Gaza

At the same time, the US this week announced the start of Phase 2 of the Trump administration’s 20-point Gaza peace plan on Wednesday. This phase is intended to shift “from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance and reconstruction” of Hamas and Gaza. According to Steve Witkoff:

“Phase 2 establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, and begins the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel.”

Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and Israel’s former National Security Advisor, says that proceeding to Phase 2 under these conditions would be a strategic calamity. He warns that Hamas has regained its confidence and has no intention of fading away.

“First, it must be said that Hamas today no longer conducts itself out of a sense of danger to its existence. It is fighting for the conditions that will ensure its status and the continuation of its influence as a significant power factor in the Palestinian arena and the regional system.”

According to JNS, Ben Shabbat dismissed the notion that Hamas would voluntarily disarm. “One should listen well to what its senior officials say regarding the matter of disarmament and the demilitarization of the Strip. From their perspective, this is not going to happen,” he said. “At most, they speak of a ‘hudna’ [temporary truce] within the framework of which there will be a holding of fire and preservation of weapons without disarming… or all kinds of other delusional and deceptive ideas.”

Finally, it must be noted that the body of one hostage remains in the Gaza Strip: Master Sgt. Ran Gvili. Israeli officials said this week that Gvili’s body is being held by Islamic Jihad in the Hamas-controlled part of the northern Gaza Strip.

This week, pray that the body of Ran Gvili will be released to his family for burial. Pray for our governments in Western countries, that they may have the courage and wisdom to defend our Judeo-Christian values and confront Islamist extremism.

Israel prepares for Phase 2 trap in Gaza as Hamas resumes regime of terror

JNS: While the U.S. pushes for an expanded truce and international forces, Hamas is already reasserting its rule, refusing disarmament and testing the Yellow Line.

Will Iran’s Regime Fall?

Hudson Institute: Michael Doran appears on a live stream with The Free Press to discuss why anti-government protests started in Iran, the regime’s crackdown, international responses to the deaths of protestors, and the future of the Iranian regime.

The high stakes in Iran

Melanie Phillips: It’s clear that the Palestine cause is a portal to obliterate Israel by suborning Western elites to the cause; the desire to obliterate Israel is a portal to the desire to obliterate Jews; and the desire to obliterate both Israel and the Jews is a portal to the destruction of the West through a broader and deeper loss of moral compass and civilizational spine. Ending the Islamic regime in Iran would be a way of resetting the West’s moral compass. Enabling it to survive would leave that compass broken and the West in continuing freefall.

The lies and desperation of the ayatollahs to save their regime

Fiamma Nirenstein at JNS: As the massacre of protesters continues, Iran's leaders revive a propaganda playbook to deny crimes, shift blame and delay international action.

Witkoff announces start of Phase 2 of Gaza peace plan

“Phase 2 establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza,” the envoy stated.