WHY THIS SEPTEMBER MATTERS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
We are about to cross into a new zone in presidential politicking, moving from “it’s too early” to “it all matters” in the Democratic nomination fight. This threshold has a name: September.
The PBS NewsHour looked at the past six presidential races and found some patterns in the Septembers before an election year.
Major candidates fall.
The ninth month regularly brings some shakeups in the pack. Often a candidate at or near the top of polls watches their numbers go south. Some, like Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Mitt Romney in 2012, survive. Others, like Scott Walker in 2016 or Elizabeth Dole in 1999, end their campaigns quickly.
Some examples:
- September 2015. (GOP). Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had been seen as a conservative favorite dropped out. So did former Texas governor Rick Perry.
- September 2015. (Democrats). Clinton saw her steepest drop of that campaign – 10 points.
- September 2011. (GOP). Romney slipped into second place in the last week in August and spent a rough September slowly climbing back.
- September 2007. (Democrats). Clinton dropped, by three points. It was one of her largest one-month dips of the 2008campaign.
- September 1999. (GOP). Former Vice President Dan Quayle quit the race. And Dole, who had been in second place in national polls, started seeing her numbers slide. She would drop out one month later.
A surprising candidate rises -- sometimes briefly.
In the fall before a presidential election year, party voters seem to have a taste for the new and unexpected. This is especially true for Republicans. In their primaries, we repeatedly see a sudden surge by an upstart. These usually do not last, but are impossible to ignore.
- September 2015. (GOP). Ben Carson saw a meteoric rise, with his average poll ratings doubling from just more than 10 percent to 20 percent. He would go on to briefly take the lead in November. His numbers dropped sharply after that.
- September 2011. (GOP). Perry, in his first run, soared 10 points in September to take a large lead over Romney. Just under a month later, his debate performances led to the sharpest polling plummet of any candidate in modern presidential politics.
- September 2011, Pt. 2. (GOP). As Perry slid, Herman Cain began an incredible surge in late September moving from fifth place to first place within a month.
- September 2007. (GOP). Republicans Fred Thompson and eventual nominee John McCain both saw jumps in their polls, with Thompson’s being a large seven-point spike.
This September has its own factors. Add to the historic data, some unique specifics for 2019:
- The next debate. The third debate, scheduled for the second week in September, may be the first single-stage debate for Democrats. Ten candidates have qualified for the debate in Houston. The deadline for any others to make it is tomorrow, Aug. 28. If this number holds, it will be the first time that voters see all of the Democratic frontrunners on the same stage at the same time.
- Congress. Congress could get quite hot this month, with House Democrats planning concentrated action on guns as well as their investigation of the president, which includes discussion of whether to pass Articles of Impeachment. Add to that, most federal spending is set to run out Sept. 30, allowing for another possible government shutdown. With nearly half of the Democratic field in Congress, this could be an opportunity to shine or sink for any of them.
THE 19TH AMENDMENT, 99 YEARS LATER
By Alexandra D’Elia, @Alex_DElia11
Politics production assistant
The date: Aug. 26, 1920. The setting: The Washington residence of then-Secretary of State Bainbridge Colby. The scene: Colby proclaims the 19th Amendment -- giving women the right to vote -- is officially part of the U.S. Constitution. Not present: A single leader of the women's suffrage movement.
Fast forward 99 years and women voters are seen as key to winning the White House and a record six are running to become the nation’s first female Commander in Chief.
In every presidential election since 1964, the number of female voters has exceeded the number of male voters. And in every presidential election since 1980, women have voted at a higher rate than men.
That history has made women’s votes particularly coveted by candidates in both parties. And now more and more women are stepping up to run for elected office themselves.
The most recent election was heralded as the “Year of the Woman,” 26 years after 1992’s “Year of the Woman,” with a record-breaking number of women being elected to Congress. Democrats added the most, noted Kelly Ditmarr of Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics. Of the 102 females in the House Representatives, 89 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans, and only one of the newly elected women to Congress is a Republican.
“It was a very partisan story, as well as a gendered story,” Dittmar said. “There are efforts to at least make up some ground for Republican women and that’s a storyline to watch for,” Dittmar added.
One group of women voters who have gained attention in recent elections are college-educated white women. They historically vote Republican; the group as six points more likely to vote for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012, but swapped and voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by the same margin in 2016. All the Democratic hopefuls are wooing them this year.
It is also important to recognize that it was not until almost half a century after the adoption of the 19th Amendment that all women could exercise the right to vote. Women of color and Native American women -- voting blocs that have also been key in recent elections -- were not included until the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
And once they had the right, black women really started to use it.
“After periods of being formally and informally barred from voting, black women have over the past 50 years utilized the franchise to become among the most essential and reliable voters, particularly for Democrats," Dittmar said. In 2008 and 2012, black women voted at the highest rate of any race and gender subgroup. A whopping 96 percent of them voted for Obama in both elections.
What will political scientists, like Dittmar be watching for ahead of 2020?
“How women voters are mobilized, not as a monolithic group of voters, but specifically by race and ethnicity, party and ideology, and education level,” Dittmar said. “Candidates and parties must recognize the differences among women and what motivates them.”
FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Alexandra D’Elia, @Alex_DElia11
Politics production assistant
What do rally playlists say about the candidates? -- Aug. 19. The New York Times compiled the campaign playlists of 10 presidential candidates, including President Donald Trump. Why it matters: The music candidates choose sends a message, about their personalities and who they are trying to target. -- The New York Times
Bernie Sanders unleashes $16 trillion climate plan that builds on Green New Deal -- Aug. 22. The day after the “ climate candidate” Jay Inslee bowed out of the presidential race, Sen. Bernie Sanders released a sweeping and pricey proposal to fight climate change. Why it matters: Climate is a top issue for Democratic voters and this plan is the most comprehensive and expensive yet proposed in their presidential field. -- USA Today
Electoral College members can defy voters’ wishes, court rules -- Aug. 22. A federal appeals court in Denver ruled that members of the Electoral College can cast their vote for the candidate of their choice, regardless of the outcome of the state’s popular vote. Why it matters: The ruling opens up the possibility of electors swaying a close election. -- The New York Times
Julián Castro is 10th Democrat to qualify for September presidential debate -- August 20. Castro is the 10th candidate to meet the enhanced debate criteria by earning at least 2 percent in four DNC-approved polls and attracting 130,000 unique donors. Why it matters: If no other candidates qualify in the next day, Democrats will hold their first single-night debate, with contenders on one stage. Several candidates are still hoping to make the cut and force a second night of debates. -- NPR
Justice Department takes step toward expanding marijuana research -- Aug. 26. Groups hoping to study possible health benefits of marijuana have won an initial battle after the Department of Justice said it will move forward on their applications, following a lawsuit on the issue. Why it matters: The change opens up what had been a gray area, allowing more researchers to study whether the plant can (legally) help manage pain and treat conditions like depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, among others. -- The Wall Street Journal
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke
Politics producer
On this day in 1894, Congress passed the Wilson-Gorman Tariff Act. It imposed the very first peacetime income tax. The tax was 2 percent on roughly the top 5 percent of incomes at the time. The Supreme Court struck down the income tax in 1895, prompting Congress to pass the 16th Amendment.
Our question: At what level of annual income did the first peacetime income tax kick in?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: On this day in 1935, a politician from Texas was born. He was a U.S. representative and ran for president three times. In 2010, The Atlantic called him “The Tea Party’s Brain.” Which politician are we describing?
The answer was Ron Paul. Happy birthday!
And congratulations to our winner: Steve Brydon!!
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your Inbox next week.
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