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Iranian police in Tehran, January 12, 2026. Photo by West Asia News Agency via Reuters |
Antigovernment protests have now spread to all 31 provinces in Iran, posing the most serious challenge to the country’s clerical leadership in decades. An estimated 3,000 protesters and nearly 150 government personnel have been killed.
To understand what’s fueling this crisis—and where it might lead—we asked seven RAND experts about regime stability, opposition dynamics, economic pressures, regional implications, and more. Here’s just some of what they said.
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What's Different This Time
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What distinguishes the current unrest from other recent uprisings is the strategic context. “The United States and Israel have significantly degraded Iran's conventional and nuclear capabilities and weakened its proxy network,” says RAND’s Michelle Grisé. As a result, the regime has “fewer tools to deflect attention from the protests and a diminished ability to absorb internal shocks.”
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Economic Strain
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Protests erupted amid Iran’s currency collapse and surging inflation. RAND’s Howard Shatz says that, while the regime could stabilize the Iranian economy at this new, lower level, “there is little it can do over the next few months or even the next year” to ease economic stress and provide relief for ordinary citizens.
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Communications Blackout
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The regime’s sweeping communications shutdown marks an escalation from previous protests, says RAND’s Marzia Giambertoni. Iran has disabled internet, phone lines, and even some Starlink terminals. This suggests authorities see the protests as a more serious threat to regime control.
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Protestors on the streets of Tehran, January 10, 2026. Social media image via ZUMA Press Wire/Reuters
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Regional Implications
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RAND’s Raphael Cohen notes mixed sentiment among Gulf nations. “On one hand, Iran is a threat to their own security, and so the overthrow of the Iranian regime is a net gain from a security perspective.” But instability can spread fast, which can be threatening to authoritarian countries. By contrast, Israel’s reaction is more straightforward: “From Jerusalem’s standpoint, this is a good thing.”
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Diplomacy and Deterrence
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“Iran's recent proposal to resume nuclear talks is a clear indicator that Tehran is looking for an off‑ramp,” says RAND’s Julia Masterson, “but its motivations are dubious.” Iran may also try to deter Israeli or U.S. military intervention. “I'd view increased aggression against the United States in the maritime environment as an indicator that Tehran is increasingly concerned about its survival,” says RAND’s Karen Sudkamp.
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What Might Happen Next
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The most plausible near-term scenario is a familiar one, says Grisé: Iran’s leadership restores stability through targeted economic concessions and a violent crackdown on protesters. But the threat to the regime shouldn’t be downplayed, Grisé says. RAND’s Heather Williams agrees. While the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is still a more likely catalyst for change in Iran, she says, recent developments inside and outside of the country “could make dramatic things possible.”
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