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Dear John,

Today, Conservative Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick was sacked over allegations he was plotting to defect to Reform UK. Within hours, he was standing on stage with Nigel Farage.

As Reform continues to top the polls, it’s hoovering up a rogue’s gallery of disaffected and opportunistic Conservatives.

Farage had teased a “major defector” this morning, following Nadhim Zahawi’s move on Monday. He even insisted, “hand on heart”, that it wasn’t going to be Jenrick. And yet, here we are.

It’s telling that someone who only recently had leadership ambitions in the Conservative Party would turn tail so quickly. Jenrick said he had reached “painful conclusions” about the party, calling it “rotten” and “no longer fit for purpose”.

Jenrick has always been on the hard-right of the Conservatives, but today he effectively tried to disown the party’s record since he entered Parliament in 2014. In his familiar monotone, he blamed his former party for “losing control” of the border and letting too many migrants in.

It isn’t a compelling pitch, and it’s not clear it will even land with Reform’s base. Because, of course, Jenrick isn’t thinking first and foremost about what his constituents want. He claims he won their vote on his personal profile, despite the fact the Conservative Party breached spending limits to get him elected in Newark and was later fined. If he really believes Reform is the future, the honest thing would be to call a by-election. He won’t.

There are two big takeaways from all this:

1) Reform has a problem on its hands. If you look at the comment sections under Farage’s posts right now (I can’t recommend it), you’ll see plenty of Reform supporters ranging from sceptical to furious about the influx of Conservatives like Jenrick and Zahawi.

The grassroots don’t like these people. But Farage also wants them because, bluntly, Reform has very little governing experience. Add in the inevitable clash of egos between Farage and Jenrick, and you have a recipe for bitter infighting.

2) This is dangerous territory for British politics. Jenrick gives Reform a veneer of legitimacy and could help pull more Conservatives over. We’re watching the far right tighten its grip on mainstream politics, in a way that echoes how Donald Trump absorbed and hollowed out the Republican Party from within.

The cordon sanitaire - the barrier that used to exist between the centre-right and the far right - has fallen. Alongside defectors, Reform has attracted former Conservative donors and activists. But the party’s base is unlikely to accept this quietly, and there’s every chance Jenrick’s arrival accelerates internal conflict.

In his defection announcement speech, Jenrick was right about one thing:

“Our country is in a precarious, dangerous position.”

But the threat isn’t migration. It’s the normalisation of far-right scapegoat politics, and the moral depths people like Jenrick will plumb to stay relevant.

He also said “Britain is broken.” On that, too, he has a point - just not for the reasons he claims. Our democracy is too often reduced to a shallow game for opportunists, rather than the collective work of shaping our future.

Our elections are broken as well, giving wealthy donors outsized power and creating a path for Jenrick and Farage to walk into Downing Street on a minority of the vote.

We’re not losing sight of what matters now: fighting to make the upcoming Elections Bill fit for purpose, and using our platform to expose the contradictions and disinformation emanating from Reform UK.

All the best,

Matt Gallagher

Communications Officer, Open Britain

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