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Daily News Brief

January 12, 2026

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering possible U.S. responses to Iran’s crackdown on mass antigovernment protests, as well as...

  • A Justice Department probe into Fed chair Jerome Powell
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to India
  • Taiwan’s soaring exports to the United States
 
 

Top of the Agenda

U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated threats to strike Iran over its crackdown on protests yesterday, while also suggesting that Tehran might negotiate with Washington. Despite Iranian authorities maintaining an internet blackout over the weekend, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it verified that more than 480 demonstrators and around 50 law enforcement officers had been killed and more than 10,600 people had been jailed since the protests began in late December. Both the United States and Iran acknowledged their communication channels remain open as the protests continue.

 

What they’re saying. The U.S. military is considering “some very strong options” for Iran, Trump told journalists yesterday. He said that a meeting with Iranian officials is being arranged after they voiced interest in negotiating but added that the United States “may have to act” sooner depending how the protests develop. Trump did not specify what the negotiations could cover. Iran’s foreign minister said in a televised address today that the country was ready for war, but also for fair and respectful negotiations. Meanwhile, world leaders including UN Secretary-General António Guterres and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen voiced support for freedom of expression in Iran and called for restraint against protesters from the country’s authorities.

 

Military capabilities. Iran’s defense capabilities are still weakened from its twelve-day war with Israel last year, when both the United States and Israel struck Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the protests during a call on Saturday, Axios reported. Trump’s options for striking Iran include cyberattacks, military strikes, and sanctions, the Wall Street Journal reported. Yet the United States currently has no aircraft carrier in the Middle East or Europe after moving its largest aircraft carrier to Latin America and would need to move assets into place. 

 
 

“The latest round of protests come at a difficult time for the regime. In June, it lost a devastating war with Israel and witnessed significant damage to a nuclear infrastructure that cost Iran billions of dollars. It lost its most lethal and reliable proxy in [the] form of a degraded Hezbollah and its Syrian land bridge.”

—CFR Senior Fellow Ray Takeyh in an Expert Brief

 

A Conversation With Reza Pahlavi

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah of Iran, attends a press conference about the situation in Iran and the need to support Iranians, in Paris, France, June 23, 2025.

Abdul Saboor/Reuters

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi laid out his perspective on the durability of the Islamic Republic regime, his framework for democratic transition, and the role of the international community in shaping Iran’s future at this October 2025 CFR meeting.

 
 

Across the Globe

Probe of Fed chair. In an announcement last night, Powell said that the Justice Department had subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and threatened a criminal indictment related to his testimony last June about White House renovations. Economic experts have for months voiced concerns about negative repercussions of executive pressure on the Fed’s independence. Powell alleged the administration had threatened him as a consequence of setting interest rates based on the Fed’s mandate rather than the president’s preferences. A spokesperson for U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi declined to comment.

 

Merz in India. India and Germany committed to boosting defense cooperation, easing the availability of healthcare work permits, and dropping German visa requirements for Indian travelers, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said today during Merz’s visit to the country. Merz said India was a “desired partner” for Germany. He also called for the conclusion of a European Union-India trade deal that has long been under negotiation, and will be discussed at a summit this month.

 

U.S. strikes in Syria. The United States carried out large-scale strikes against multiple self-declared Islamic State targets in Syria, U.S. Central Command said Saturday. They were part of continued retaliation for a deadly attack on U.S. and Syrian forces last month, the statement said. Following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024, the U.S. and Jordanian militaries have worked with the new Syrian government to target the remnants of the Islamic State.

 

Taiwan’s tech exports. Taiwan’s exports to the United States surpassed those to China last year for the first time in twenty-six years, according to new data. U.S. demand for high-tech products related to artificial intelligence systems helps explain surge. Taiwan is currently negotiating to reduce a 20 percent U.S. tariff on its exports; semiconductors are already excluded from that levy.

 

Ethiopia’s new airport. Ethiopian Airlines Group began construction Saturday on a new international airport roughly twenty-five miles from the capital of Addis Ababa. The project’s first phase is expected to be completed by 2030. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wrote on social media that the airport would be the largest aviation infrastructure project in African history.

 

Trump’s warning on Cuba. Cuba will no longer receive shipments of Venezuelan oil following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, Trump wrote on social media yesterday. He urged Cuba to “make a deal” before it is “too late,” without providing further details. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on social media that “no one dictates what we do.” 

 

Japan’s deep sea mining. A Japanese mining ship began a government-backed test mission today that aims to continuously mine rare earths from four miles below sea level—the first of its kind in the world. The head of the project told Reuters that the goal is to diversify the country’s sources of critical minerals. It comes after China announced a new export ban last week on materials that could be used by Japan’s military. 

 

Israeli demolitions in Gaza. Israel has demolished more than 2,500 buildings in Gaza since the start of the October ceasefire, according to satellite data analyzed by the New York Times. Most of the demolitions occurred in Israeli-controlled parts of the territory, though dozens are in parts of the enclave where Israel had pledged to withdraw and halt military operations. Israel said the demolitions are necessary to demilitarize Gaza.

 
 

Trump’s $1.5 Trillion Defense Spending Proposal

Armored vehicles drive down the avenue during the Army 250th Anniversary Parade in Washington, DC, on June 14, 2025.

Alex Wroblewski/Getty Images

In the context of global threats, a long overdue defense modernization bill, and the ambitions of Trump’s defense priorities, perhaps such a large budget request should have been expected, CFR Fellow Erin D. Dumbacher, the University of Pennsylvania’s Michael C. Horowitz, and Georgetown’s Lauren Kahn write in this Expert Brief.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, a genocide case against Myanmar opens at the International Court of Justice in the Hague.
  • Today, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. begins a visit to the United Arab Emirates.

  • Tomorrow, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a visit to China.

 
 

Myanmar’s Junta-Led Election

People queue to cast their votes at a polling station during Myanmar's general election in Naypyidaw, Myanmar on December 28, 2025.

Reuters

Despite banned opposition, mass displacement, and severe repression, the election is already granting the military dangerous international legitimacy, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick and CFR’s Annabel Richter write for Asia Unbound.  

 
 

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