The key to navigating today’s uncertainty, I’ve argued, is to form a mosaic from the cross-current of the forces buffeting our world. Leaders need to focus on connecting dots across seemingly disparate domains. Siloed thinking around a single discipline (economics, for instance) is a sure-fire way to misinterpret today’s chaos and experts who fail to broaden their thinking will struggle to lead effectively as they gain greater responsibility.
Trump’s return to the White House last year has brought about a dizzyingly realignment of global dynamics, and many leaders are caught in the swirl, unable to find a fixed point with which to orient themselves. The world feels out of control and disorder seems to be the new normal. Over the past year, I have tried to provide that fixed point, explaining what I see in terms of the realignment and the new axis around which the world will turn.
America’s neighbors to the north are the latest example of what happens when this gyroscope is upended. A recent Economist article entitled “Canada’s Armed Forces are Planning for Threats from America” details recent Canadian war planning that included possible defensive scenarios against America. Yes, you read that right: Canada is preparing for a possible war with the United States.
The article explains that Canada is changing its basic strategic assumptions, concerned that it can no longer cede defense of the North American continent to its southern neighbor. Misinterpreting the U.S. pivot from Europe, Canada fears it can no longer rely on the U.S. for its national security and that the U.S. might even be a threat to it. The Canadians are talking about increasing their defense spending, trying to build independent capabilities, and even considering a 400,000 strong civil-defense source modeled after the approach taken by Finland.
Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, has been a cheerleader of this “diversification” strategy, and national security is not the only area where it is being applied. Carney has announced that Canada will double its non-U.S. imports, diversify its critical minerals supply chains, and he is paying a visit to China next week as part of his “pivot” away from the United States. As former UN Climate ...
