As unrest intensifies and the regime hardens its stance, the future of Iran remains uncertain. Plus: new projects and opportunities on the horizon.

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Happy New Year

Protests in Iran have escalated sharply over the past week as economic collapse and political repression converge, prompting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to authorize security forces to crack down on demonstrators. While the regime has weathered similar moments before—including the Woman, Life, Freedom protests—the situation remains volatile, with dozens reportedly killed and the country’s future difficult to predict. We examine what may come next, alongside a disturbing report on the normalization of child marriage in Iraq, newly spotlighted by The Times, and reflect on the 11-year anniversary of the Charlie Hebdo attack and its enduring implications for free expression.

We also share what’s on the horizon for us in the new year, including upcoming projects and opportunities to get involved.

Lastly, the 2025 Persecution Tracker Report [[link removed]]is now live on our website, cataloging global incidents of state prosecution and vigilante violence stemming from accusations of blasphemy and apostasy from Islam.

Unbelief Brief

Protests in Iran have continued to escalate in the past week, and the Islamic Republic appears to be in genuine danger. While officials had tried to keep a conciliatory tone towards protesters, Supreme Leader Khamenei has now granted [[link removed]] security forces license to “put rioters [as opposed to peaceful protesters] in their place.” The collapse [[link removed]] of Iran’s currency appears to have ignited a firestorm that may not easily be quelled.

Of course, many who had high hopes for the regime’s downfall during the Woman, Life, Freedom protests were let down. Despite the extreme domestic disapproval and discontent and the resulting use of brutal crackdowns and repression, the Islamic Republic has shown a remarkable ability to remain intact. of. They appear to be following the same model of action [[link removed]] again. HRANA, an Iranian human rights group, tallied at least 36 [[link removed]] deaths of protesters at the hands of the regime’s security forces.

What happens next is difficult to predict. The regime could buckle, or it could reassert its grip on power and quell the protests through further violence. The Institute for the Study of War estimates [[link removed]] a “slight decline” in the number of protests across the country between January 4th and 6th, compared with the period of the 2nd to the 4th; this does not necessarily mean things are quieting down in the long term, but it remains to be seen how events unfold. In moments like this, the wheels of history spin very fast and trends are measured in days, if not hours.

Spooked by Venezuelan President Maduro’s recent capture [[link removed]], Iranian authorities have warned [[link removed]] the West against meddling in their internal affairs. But, with or without Western “meddling,” it is highly unlikely that authorities’ planned stipend of $7 per month [[link removed]] to Iranian citizens will quell discontent. Even if economic concerns are what set off these protests, it has been clear for a long while that Iranians no longer wish to be ruled by their current theocratic regime. Its downfall would be the first glimmer of hope in years, however dim, for a secular Iran.

Also: a recent piece in The Times explores the ugliness and the commonality of child marriage in Iraq [[link removed]], which was effectively legalized [[link removed]] for Shia Muslims after amendments to the personal status laws last year. The article notes the disturbing popularity of “content featuring child brides” on Iraqi TikTok; a “bridal make-up artist” describes a “10-year-old girl,” her head covered in bruises, “who cried throughout her hair and makeup, and still her family were proud to say she was marrying an older man.” Efforts to oppose and reverse the practice are reportedly stymied by Iraqi authorities, who have attempted to intimidate activists into silence.

Finally: the 11-year anniversary of the Charlie Hebdo shooting was yesterday. May the memory of its victims [[link removed]] inspire all of us to a continued defense of free expression, in defiance of religious terrorism. More than a decade later, this lesson has become only more important.

On the Horizon

New Year, New Projects!

Want to work with us? We’re looking for:

A paid video content producer to bring our stories and analysis to life, and

A volunteer to support our social media and administrative efforts.

If you have the skills and want to contribute to meaningful, values-driven work, we invite you to get in touch.

Reach out [mailto:[email protected]] to learn more about these opportunities.

If you found this newsletter valuable, please consider sharing it with a friend—or supporting our work with a donation [[link removed]].

Until next week,

The Team at Ex-Muslims of North America

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