A simple framework to trade copper without chasing. ͏  ͏  ͏
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[Morning Watchlist]

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HERE’S HOW TO TRADE COPPER NOW

Late last year, we said copper demand would only accelerate — and
the tape has validated the thesis.

On NOVEMBER 23, 2025, we cited BHP’s view that global copper demand
could climb sharply over the coming decades, driven by three
structural forces: INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUTS, POWER-GRID EXPANSION, AND
THE DATA-CENTER BOOM TIED TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. BHP has since
reiterated that framework and projects GLOBAL COPPER DEMAND COULD RISE
BY AROUND 70% TO MORE THAN 50 MILLION TONNES PER YEAR BY 2050.

We also highlighted copper leverage through FREEPORT-MCMORAN (SYM:
FCX) and the GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF (SYM: COPX). Since then, both
have delivered meaningful upside.

*
FCX IS NOW ABOUT $55.14

*
COPX IS NOW ABOUT $75.93

That is exactly the type of move you want to see when the fundamental
story begins to translate into capital flows.

WHAT WE WOULD DO NEXT: TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS, THEN RESET FOR THE NEXT
LEG

From here, we would TAKE SOME WINS OFF THE TABLE. Not because the
long-term thesis is broken — but because strong uptrends typically
do not move in a straight line. After a sharp run, it’s normal to
see PROFIT-TAKING, CONSOLIDATION, AND RE-PRICING OF EXPECTATIONS.

This is especially true right now because copper has been pushing into
fresh highs: Reuters reported copper prices SURPASSED $13,000 PER
METRIC TON and noted a 40% SURGE IN 2025 as the market increasingly
focuses on supply risk meeting AI and electrification demand.

When you see a commodity and its equities move that quickly, the
higher-probability path is often:

*
a pullback or sideways digestion phase, and then

*
a renewed push higher once the market has rebuilt a base.

So the near-term play is about RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITIONING, not
abandoning the theme.

-------------------------

WHY COPPER CAN STILL EXPLODE HIGHER LONGER TERM

Even if copper cools off in the short run, the longer-term
supply/demand setup remains compelling.

1) DATA CENTERS AND AI ARE BECOMING A REAL COPPER DEMAND ENGINE

The AI buildout isn’t just chips and servers — it’s electricity.
And electricity infrastructure is copper-intensive.

BHP estimates the copper used in data centers will grow SIX-FOLD BY
2050, from roughly ~0.5 MILLION TONNES PER YEAR TODAY to around ~3
MILLION TONNES PER YEAR by 2050 — an increase it compares to the
combined output of the world’s four largest copper mines.

That matters because it reframes “digital demand” as durable and
rising — not cyclical.

2) POWER GRIDS ARE THE BOTTLENECK (AND THE INVESTMENT IS REAL)

Copper is the metal of electrification, and electrification is
increasingly grid-constrained.

Reuters has highlighted that global power-grid expansion and
modernization is accelerating, with record investment levels and
demand rising from EVs and data centers alongside renewables
integration.
In other words: even if EV sales fluctuate quarter to quarter, the
grid work doesn’t disappear — it tends to compound.
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-------------------------

3) THE SUPPLY SIDE IS STRUCTURALLY SLOW

Copper supply is not “turn on a dime” supply. Mines take years to
permit, finance, and build, and the industry faces long-lead
constraints.

S&P Global reported the IEA warning that copper could face a supply
shortage that COULD REACH 30% BY 2035, with the deficit driven by
structural constraints like DECLINING ORE GRADES, HIGHER CAPITAL
COSTS, AND LONG PROJECT TIMELINES.

This is why copper is often described as one of the more difficult
critical minerals to scale quickly.

4) THE CAPITAL REQUIRED IS ENORMOUS

There are multiple estimates for how much new investment is needed to
meet future demand. One widely cited framework is BloombergNEF’s
Transition Metals Outlook, which pegs TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS of new
mining investment needed across energy transition metals by 2050.

Separately, some market commentary summarizing BloombergNEF estimates
suggests the COPPER INDUSTRY ALONE may require investment on the order
of ~$1.2 TRILLION OVER THE NEXT ~25 YEARS to keep up.

Whether the “right number” is $1.2T for copper or higher depending
on scenario, the key point is the same: THE SCALE OF THE SPEND IS
MASSIVE, and it supports a higher long-term price regime if supply
doesn’t respond fast enough.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

PRACTICAL TRADE PLAN: HOW TO HANDLE COPPER NOW

Below is a simple framework we’d use to manage the position from
here.

STEP 1: SCALE OUT INTO STRENGTH (RISK MANAGEMENT FIRST)

If you’re sitting on meaningful gains in FCX and/or COPX, consider
taking PARTIAL PROFITS rather than trying to nail the exact top. This
accomplishes two things:

*
It reduces emotional decision-making if volatility spikes.

*
It creates dry powder to buy opportunistically on the next pullback.

A common approach is trimming ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF of the position
after an extended move, while keeping a “core” stake for the
longer-term thesis.

STEP 2: DEFINE YOUR RE-ENTRY AND ADD ZONES (DON’T CHASE)

Instead of buying after a big run, let price come to you.

Two practical methods:

*
MOVING-AVERAGE APPROACH: look for pullbacks toward key trend levels
(commonly the 20-day or 50-day moving average) and scale in if the
trend remains intact.

*
SUPPORT/STRUCTURE APPROACH: add in layers on pullbacks toward prior
consolidation zones (where buyers previously stepped in).

You are not trying to buy the exact low. You are trying to buy GOOD
ENTRIES WITH DEFINED RISK.

STEP 3: USE OPTIONS (IF APPROPRIATE) TO GET PAID WHILE YOU WAIT

If your audience is options-capable, copper-linked equities can be
suitable for income overlays during consolidation:

*
COVERED CALLS ON FCX: If you believe upside is likely but could be
slower or choppier, selling calls against part of a position can
generate premium while you hold. The main trade-off is that upside
becomes capped above the strike.

*
CASH-SECURED PUTS: If you want to add exposure but only at lower
prices, selling puts can set a “buy zone” where you’re
comfortable owning shares.

These tools can help monetize volatility during digestion phases —
but they require disciplined sizing and risk controls.

STEP 4: PICK THE RIGHT INSTRUMENT FOR YOUR OBJECTIVE

*
FCX: a liquid, large-cap way to express copper plus company-specific
catalysts (operations, costs, Indonesia exposure, etc.).

*
COPX: diversified miner exposure (less single-name risk, more
“sector beta”).

*
DIRECT COPPER EXPOSURE (FOR ADVANCED TRADERS): futures or
copper-linked ETPs (exchange-traded products) can track the metal more
directly, but they come with different risks.

STEP 5: KEEP THE LONG-TERM THESIS, BUT RESPECT THE SHORT-TERM TAPE

The copper story is real. The demand drivers are durable. The supply
constraints are structural.

But the market still moves in cycles. The best results usually come
from combining:

*
a LONG-TERM CORE POSITION, and

*
a TACTICAL SLEEVE you trim and rebuild as the trend breathes.

-------------------------

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