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2025 will likely go down in history as one of the most eventful, action-packed years of the 21st century. The return of Donald Trump to the White House was perhaps the most consequential event, but the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and its voracious appetite for energy, China’s domestic deflation, and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine competed for headlines. The Epstein files proved far more resilient than expected, gasoline prices plunged while gold surged, and many stock markets rose to new highs.
All of this took place while Thailand and Cambodia went to war [ [link removed] ], the nasty civil war in Sudan raged unabated, and South America began shifting right. The Gulf of Mexico was renamed the Gulf of America, and the Department of Defense became the Department of War. California endured horrific wildfires, Jamaica was hit by a category 5 hurricane, and the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution failed to reach any agreement. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern agreed to merge [ [link removed] ], Google purchased cloud security firm Wiz for $32 billion in cash, and Chevron bought Hess. Newark struggled to keep its airport functioning, the government shut down, and the United States delivered a major blow the Iranian nuclear program. America also began preparations for its 250th birthday.
And let’s not forget what Dave Barry has called the biggest story of 2025: news that a devious raccoon broke into a Virginia liquor store and was found passed out in the bathroom. As Barry went on to note in his annual (must read) Year in Review, “that’s where the raccoon was found by a store employee, who called the animal-control officer, who took it to an animal shelter. When the raccoon finally sobered up, it was hired as director of security by the Louvre Museum [ [link removed] ].”
As I’ve stressed for years, uncertainty and change are realities of life from which none of us can escape. Yet we must all make decisions in the face of these fluid dynamics. What’s the best way to do so? Sadly, there is no one correct answer, but I believe we must look through the day-to-day noise to have any chance of identifying signals. Long-term trends that drive seemingly disconnected developments offer a compass to guide us through the numerous cross-currents that plague our lives; and as I’ve noted several times in the past, I believe this approach is at least marginally more useful than my Ouija board [ [link removed] ] or Magic 8 ball [ [link removed] ].
Unlike others who tend to make predictions on a one-year view, I opt for a longer look as I believe time allows signals to surface amidst the deafening noise. I’ve been doing this since 2012 and have publicly posted my predictions since January 2015. (Links: 2015 [ [link removed] ], 2016 [ [link removed] ], 2017 [ [link removed] ], 2018 [ [link removed] ], 2019 [ [link removed] ], 2020 [ [link removed] ], 2021 [ [link removed] ], 2022 [ [link removed] ], 2023 [ [link removed] ], 2024 [ [link removed] ], 2025 [ [link removed] ]). I’d encourage you to revisit any or all of them, not just to see how wrong (and sometimes right!) I can be, but to also notice how the mere act of considering alternatives can be constructive. Accuracy has not (and is not) my objective. Instead, I offer these predictions with the hope they help you embrace uncertainty and think independently about the future.
1. The global use of [ [link removed] ]GLP-1 drugs [ [link removed] ] skyrockets [ [link removed] ] as an oral pill becomes readily available and is covered by most health insurance plans or government health offices. Research emerges suggesting long-term side effects may be severe; drug companies respond with a flood of marketing dollars noting a life of chronic weight-related disease is worse. The single-serve food market booms. As the drugs decrease impulsive tendencies, consumer behaviors shift away from spontaneous decisions, leading to a structural headwind across a range of industries. Demand for buy-now-pay-later programs collapses.
2. Artificial intelligence generates deflation, leading to structurally rising unemployment and elevated debt levels. “The debt-deflation theory of great depressions [ [link removed] ]” by Irving Fisher is read by everyone on Wall Street. Governments print money in a quest to produce inflation, leading to a surge in bitcoin, gold, commodity, and real estate prices. The perception of American debt as offering risk-free return is replaced by one in which treasuries are perceived as offering return-free risk. Unexpectedly, the US dollar stays strong, spurred in large part by massive inflows into dollar-linked stablecoins [ [link removed] ].
3. Beef prices plunge as the result of three simultaneous developments: (a) America’s cattle herd growing rapidly in reaction to current high prices [ [link removed] ]; (b) Argentina and Brazil, to win favor with the Trump Administration prior to upcoming US elections, begin sending enormous volumes of beef to the United States instead of China; and (c) the beer industry repurposes fermentation infrastructure to produce [ [link removed] ]lab-grown ground beef [ [link removed] ].
4. Birth rates [ [link removed] ] in the developed world continue to fall [ [link removed] ], driven in large part by ongoing climate alarmism [ [link removed] ]and declining marriage rates. The world’s largest economies age, leading to increasingly risk-averse (and short-term) investing and a rapid dissipation of entrepreneurial energy. Less money is invested in basic research and patent issuance slows to a trickle. China’s start-up culture withers as the one-child policy proves to be the Achilles heel of the Middle Kingdom’s desire to lead the world.
5. Bio-fabrication technologies advance rapidly enabling human organs to be printed on demand. A new industry of “body mechanics” emerges and utilizes AI-driven prediction models to pre-emptively replace joints, bones, and organs before they fail. The expected lifespan of a child born in 2030 rises to 151 years.
6. The insatiable consumer [ [link removed] ]appetite for protein [ [link removed] ] continues indefinitely. Restaurants start disclosing the protein content of menu items, the University of Washington designs [ [link removed] ]a high-protein apple [ [link removed] ] that is marketed across the country, and The Coca Cola Company introduces a high-protein soda. Public health deteriorates as Americans’ religious focus on protein leads to elevated consumption of sugars and artificial sweeteners.
7. Greenland declares independence from Denmark on the back of America’s agreement to acknowledge its status as a sovereign nation (Hmmm, remind you of Panama’s history [ [link removed] ]?) In return for doing so, the United States is granted concessions to most of Greenland’s rare earths [ [link removed] ], several military bases on the island, and exclusive rights to underwater resources around the island nation. Unexpectedly, Greenland emerges as a major competitor to Norway and Chile in salmon farming.
8. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney [ [link removed] ] is ousted as the country recognizes that “diversifying” away from the United States [ [link removed] ] is the wrong strategy in a world defined by the US-China War [ [link removed] ]. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has been consistently seen as a pro-American alternative, ascends to lead Canada [ [link removed] ]. Simultaneously, but unrelatedly, improvements made to Venezuela’s oil infrastructure lead to a plunge in global crude oil prices and Canada’s worst recession in decades. Smith is bruised by the perception of economic incompetence, but survives and oversees a diversification of Canada’s economy beyond resource extraction and real estate.
9. As the battle between individualism and collectivism intensifies, sales of Ayn Rand’s books [ [link removed] ]surge and classes on objectivism proliferate on college campuses. Zohran Mamdani’s popularity skyrockets and he emerges as the global torchbearer of the collectivist movement. Vivek Ramaswamy becomes the world’s leading cheerleader of individualism. The DEI movement [ [link removed] ] retains a small but loyal following, marginalized to college campuses and a shrinking number of corporations.
10. Advancements in [ [link removed] ]quantum computing [ [link removed] ] lead to a geopolitical crisis as all formerly- secure communications become instantaneously vulnerable. Each breakthrough leads to a bump in gold prices as investors fear the possibility of quantum-enabled theft of cryptocurrency [ [link removed] ]. Cybersecurity re-emerges as an area of top concern for corporate boardrooms, nation states, and individuals.
11. A boom in next generation nuclear [ [link removed] ] technologies [ [link removed] ] combines with improved hydrocarbon extraction efficiency to keep energy prices contained in the face of exploding demand from technology applications and data centers. As [ [link removed] ]copper emerges as the world’s most strategic [ [link removed] ]resource, the Great Powers shift their focus ... [ [link removed] ]

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