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**JANUARY 7, 2026**

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Democrats have a lot of advantages in Congress right now. Republicans own the massive increase in health insurance costs. Because of vacancies, there’s only a one-vote cushion in the House. Discharge petitions have given the minority party effective control of the House floor. But the party appears to be steadfastly opposed to using its own power, particularly by shutting down the government. This is giving Donald Trump the opening he needs to assert his own dominance with a preemptive shutdown, as I explain below [link removed].

**–David Dayen, executive editor**

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J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

If Democrats Won’t Shut Down the Government, Trump Will [link removed]

We are just a few weeks away from another deadline on government funding, and all sides want you to know something: This will not go the way it did the last time [link removed]. Nobody wants to see a replay of the longest shutdown in American history that happened last October and November. Democrats are not going to ask for an extension of Obamacare subsidies, which ran out on December 31, as a condition of passing appropriations. (There will be a House vote on a three-year extension of the subsidies on Thursday, but that’s happening outside of the government funding process.) Republicans are going to try to negotiate appropriations bills with Democrats, rather than a unilateral demand to extend current funding.

The sting of that shutdown, the subsequent Republican wipeout in special elections, and the Democratic capitulation to end the impasse have made all sides wary of disrupting the flow of government funding.

Well, almost all sides.

Because on Tuesday, the Department of Health and Human Services froze $10 billion in funding for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, the Child Care and Development Fund, and other social services for five blue states (Minnesota, New York, California, Illinois, and Colorado). This is perceived punishment for a hyped-up scandal about welfare fraud [link removed] in Minnesota, which was largely prosecuted during the Biden administration but which has been resurrected by dishonest [link removed] right-wing influencers, largely to press the case that all Somali Americans are stealing government funds.

It’s as if President Trump is saying, “Well if you’re not going to shut down the government, I sure will.” And at the same time, he is doing the exact same thing he accuses Somali Americans of doing, namely, taking money from child welfare programs.

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