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Breaking Norms to Look Strong
Friend,
Happy New Year. And it’s clearly going to be quite the ride.
I drafted a New Year’s message that started, “Trump is the weakest he has been since getting in office. Weak dictators are dangerous and will lash out as their friends co-sign atrocious norm-busting actions to appear strong and in charge. We’re likely to see escalated violence even as his support drains away.”
We are seeing this with Trump’s kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
A President unilaterally ordering bombing in Venezuela and the forcible kidnapping of a sitting head of state is clearly illegal under both international law and the U.S. Constitution, as noted by the UN. It’s not coming from a place of strength, coherence, rationality, kindness, anti-drugs, or human rights…
Yes, this is about oil. Yes, Stephen Miller wants to demonize Latin Americans. Yes, Marco Rubio wants to break Cuba’s economy and is using Venezuela as a stepping stone for that. Yes, all of this is a distraction that less than 1% of the Epstein files have been released, the fifth anniversary of January 6th, and economic turmoil.
But Trump is not a strategist or playing any long game. He wants power and control. This is his sense of naked, raw power.
The rest of us are left processing reasons and rationales, scratching our heads trying to assess the meaning and end goals. Elites, billionaires, and his corrupt gang are going to exploit this moment.
But for Trump it’s just about being the biggest bully on the playground. He’s running the authoritarian’s favorite move: creating a caricatured villain to take on–and hoping the country will see him as a savior.
Trump wants the world to believe he cannot be restrained by anyone. That strength emanates from people fearing that he will break any norm. That’s why there was no declaration of war, no imminent self-defense claim, and no authorization from Congress as required by the War Powers Resolution. The norm-breaking is the point. Legal scholars are clear this crosses a bright red line. This is not law enforcement; it is an illegal war crime.
For Trump, this is the same underlying story we’ve seen: hoping that his friends will see him as strong and that his opponents will grow fearful.
Our test through 2026 is to help people unhook from this story. Those who tell us that the President cannot be stopped are giving him what he wants: a story of unrivaled, unstoppable power.
But 2025 proved his limitations. Courts stymied and slowed many maneuvers. Trump lost control over the national guard in many cities (by the Supreme Court, no less). He couldn’t censor Jimmy Kimmel. He couldn’t control the Epstein story. And whenever he began to lose, he would change the subject.
So in 2026 he will continue to make horrible, violent, murderous moves — not all of which we will be able to stop in the immediate. Our job in 2026 is to continue withdrawing people’s support for those policies, not only in words but in deeds.
The Pillars of Support
We’ve been teaching over the last year that authoritarians take advantage of institutions’ unwillingness to push back. Trump doesn’t execute laws, give judicial rulings, write headlines, build roads, invade countries, kidnap residents, tear down the West Wing. He orders others to do it — and if they refuse to comply, an authoritarian’s power to give orders becomes useless.
That’s what happened when Trump ordered Indiana State Republicans to gerrymander the state. Hoosiers across the political spectrum said no — in town halls, in calls, in protests, in direct actions. Even after Trump escalated with personal threats and people acting on his behalf engaged in acts of violence, Indiana politicians said no — they would not accede and they would not comply.
Or another example right now: Minneapolis faces threats of 2,000 federal agents descending on their city in what appears to be a Chicago-style waged campaign of raids and terror targeting Black, Brown and immigrant communities. Residents of Minneapolis have shown much grit in escorting kids, confronting federal agents directly, and pooling funds to support residents who fear for their safety and are unable to work. But they did more than focus on Trump and federal agents — they expanded their targets to include hotels who are putting ICE up. The campaign may have already notched its first win: “Minnesota Hilton cancels ICE agents’ hotel reservations,” blares the headlines from The Guardian. (The situation now remains uncertain, with the national chain insisting it’s “resolved” this dispute.)
The point is we’ve been sapping Trump’s support over the last year — and we have to continue growing that. It helps to not just focus on Trump — but on those pillars of support, too. Here are some of those pillars with respect to Venezuela:
Congress
If you’re looking for immediate actions, colleague Ash-Lee Henderon offered a direct one: contacting your leaders in Congress. The Constitution is explicit: Congress decides questions of war. If it abdicates now, it sets a precedent that will be used again — and again.
A bill is moving this week to stop further action in Venezuela — so the timing is right now. Her suggestion:
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If you’ve got 10 minutes: contact your two U.S. Senators
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If you’ve got 20 minutes: contact your two Senators + your House Representative
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If you’ve got 30 minutes: add Senate Foreign Relations Committee leadership or members you have ties to.
Call the U.S. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. You can find direct info for congress people at https://5calls.org/issue/trump-venezuela-extrajudicial-murder/.
Military personnel
In a just society, many people involved in planning and executing an illegal war would face accountability. Senator Mark Kelly and others famously made a video reminding service members of their oath to disobey unlawful orders. Section of Article 92 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice is clear — servicemembers must not follow orders that are “manifestly unlawful.”
Veterans have been organizing. In this moment, Common Defense continues to mobilize veterans and military families to defend the Constitution and oppose forever wars: https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/defend-the-constitution-end-forever-wars
Oil companies
No one benefits more from Trump’s actions in Venezuela than oil companies. These are hard targets — and unavoidable ones. War after war has been fueled by the same corporations that poison our air, destroy communities, and accelerate climate collapse.
Venezuela’s oil — the largest reserves in the world — has been a geopolitical prize — and a recurring justification for pressure, sanctions, covert action, and now open force.
After many decades in which U.S. and European companies dominated extraction, Venezuela formally nationalized its oil industry in 1976. This followed earlier reforms in the 1960s that steadily increased Venezuelan control and royalties. The move was broadly popular inside the country and made Venezuela a central player in OPEC.
At the moment, Chevron is the only remaining US oil company operating in Venezuela. They have over 400 locations across the US, from gas stations to refineries to corporate offices. These are prime locations for future actions as they stand to benefit quickest.
Other companies, like Exxon, are eyeing ways to get their hands on Venezuelan oil — but like much of this rapidly unfolding situation, taking oil from Venezuela is not straightforward.
We expect to see more soon — a 1-day wildcat consumer strike has been called for January 8th. The ask is easy enough: no buying oil or gas on January 8th. https://bit.ly/StrikeThePump. More targeted actions will follow!
International solidarity
The U.S. cannot do this alone. Pressure from other countries matters. One concrete demand: countries should refuse to buy stolen Venezuelan oil.
Canada, Mexico, and the Netherlands are some of the largest buyers of US oil. They share some responsibility for the US engagement in another imperialist venture. A boycott — or even the threat of one — could pressure both governments and oil companies, especially as firms already express concern about entering Venezuela.
Mainstream media
The media is playing a role sanitizing the kidnapping of a head of state. Words like “capture” — used in almost all US press — understate the gravity of abducting a country’s leader. They have not accurately named the US’s piracy in stealing oil shipments.
Largely, the press remains quick to quote Trump and slow to fact-check his lies. No, this is not about drugs — Venezuela does not smuggle fentanyl into the US. No, the US is not “reclaiming stolen oil” — this is a factually deficient framing that ignores history.
Journalist Nikole Hannah-Jones writes, “So many in media are ill-equipped to interview officials about what’s happening because they begin with the presumption of legitimacy and don’t know enough about history or U.S. foreign policy to foment intelligent pushback and hold officials accountable. The questions begin with WILL regime change be successful, not how is it legal or ethical to orchestrate a coup and who are we to decide when leadership must go and who are we to believe we have rights to a sovereign nation’s resources.”
(You can follow real journalists like her and Marsia Kabas.)
All these — and other pillars — are upholding the authoritarian regime. They keep it normalized, legitimized, flush with resources and protection. 2026 is about continuing to strip that back.
I want to affirm again this analysis: Trump is the weakest he has been since getting in office. Weak dictators are dangerous and will lash out as their friends co-sign atrocious norm-busting actions to appear strong and in charge. We’re likely to see escalated violence even as his support drains away.
Resistance is growing. He is not invincible. More and more people are not being taken in by the lies and his regime’s utter disregard for life. The hill is high to climb, but each step that you can take matters.
So for 2026, don’t give in to the fear.
Warmly,
Choose Democracy
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